Sector report – ‘Gurus’ of the insuretech market and top managers of insuretech companies – Biggest Venture Capitals inveting in Insuretech: Deals, Trends a
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-Sector report
– "Gurus" of the insuretech market and top managers of insuretech companies
– Biggest Venture Capitals inveting in Insuretech: Deals, Trends and Startups
– Biggest events for insuretech worldswide
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Q3 2021
Quarterly InsurTech Briefing October 2021
Foreword 2 Mega-round deals – a disguised blessing?
Introduction 12 The future of risk
InsurTechs in Spotlight 24 – OTONOMI 26 – Corvus 27 – Arbol 28 – Stable 29 – Understory 30 – Concirrus 31 – Kettle 32 – Previsico 33
The Art of the Possible 34 Manny Citron, Volery Capital 36 Toby Behrmann, Global Parametrics 40
Incumbent Corner 44 Brendan Smyth and Premal Gohil on Liberty Mutual’s global innovation efforts
Thought Leadership 50 Willis Towers Watson’s Julian Roberts on the future of risk management
Transaction Spotlight 54 – reThought 56 – At-Bay 57
The Data Center 58 This quarter’s data highlights
Contents
Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q3 2021 1
Foreword Mega-round deals – a disguised blessing?
Foreword
Looking at the quarter-on-quarter global InsurTech investment figures, one could be forgiven for thinking that there was, is and continues to be venture and growth capital for many (or even most) InsurTech businesses. Superficially this certainly seems to be the case. Generally speaking, deal count and volume continue to rise consistently on a quarterly basis; however, this is possibly where the good news for the majority of InsurTech businesses ends. If we scratch away at the figures a little more, we can quite clearly see that a significant amount of the capital raised on a quarterly basis is arriving at the doorsteps of the few.
In our previous Quarterly InsurTech Briefing (Q2), we reported that the first half of 2021 oversaw the largest amount of global InsurTech funding in a six-month period on record, with a staggering US$7.4 billion raised in 183 days. To put this into perspective, in H1 2021, if we were to spread the investment total equally over the number of days in this time period, on average $40 million was invested into InsurTechs (globally) per day. This would represent a daily investment in the region of approximately $16,000 to $13,000 into each InsurTech on the planet (if we assume there are somewhere in the region of 2,500 to 3,000 businesses that have adopted the term “InsurTech” over the past decade).
On average, since the beginning of 2017, approximately 6.5 times more investment is occurring on a current quarterly basis into InsurTechs across the globe. This might logically and rationally lead the average contemporaneous InsurTech into thinking it has
Dr. Andrew Johnston Global Head of Willis Re InsurTech, Quarterly Briefing Editor
relatively easy access to ready capital. Unfortunately for most, this simply is not the case. Before we continue with this narrative, it is of course worth noting that not every InsurTech on earth needs or wants to raise money (especially not every quarter). There are those few InsurTechs that generate a profit, or those that are quickly acquired or have limited interest in ceding equity unnecessarily.
While the significant consolidated macro growth of global InsurTech investment trend over a relatively short period of time is in and of itself very noteworthy, a stark pattern has been driving most of this growth that is not good news for most InsurTech businesses: the concentration of the much for the few. The data we presented from the previous quarter’s investment results showed that over two-thirds of the total volume raised went into only 15 InsurTech deals; in other words, approximately 0.5% of the world’s InsurTech businesses shared $3.3 billion between them, while the remaining $1.5 billion was distributed among 147 companies. We know this remaining amount was also largely concentrated into just a few companies (given the number of rounds that were $70 million to $99 million, which fall short of the mega-round status but consume a significant amount of capital). As for the remaining 95% of the world’s InsurTechs, there was zero fundraising activity (in Q2 2021).
If we look back at the past few quarters, the concentration of significant funds into only a handful of deals on a quarterly basis is certainly not a unique issue to Q2 2021; in fact, Q2 2021’s mega- round deals, on an individual deal basis, represented a historic low percentage of the total amount of capital available (4%) being concentrated in one deal — this compared with Q2 2018 when a single mega-round deal represented 35% of the total amount of capital raised in the entire quarter.
In Q1 2021, eight deals (of 146) were responsible for 44% of total global funding; in Q4 2020, six deals (of 103) were responsible for 50% of the total global funding, and in Q3 2020, six deals (of 104) accounted for 70% of the total volume raised of global funding into InsurTech. We present the data in Figure 1 dating back to the beginning of 2018 to illustrate the effect that mega-rounds (rounds over $100 million) are having on total quarterly funding.
Mega-round deals — a disguised blessing? Q2 total funding — 162 deals, $4.8 billion
Q2 mega-round funding; 15 deals $3.3 billion, 67% of total funding
Approximately 3,000 businesses globally that have adopted the
label “InsurTech”
The vast majority of the InsurTech investment in 2021 Q2 was concentrated into a small number of companies.
Figure 1. The composition of mega-round deals as part of the overall InsurTech investment since the beginning of 2018
Quarter/ Year
Number of mega-rounds (total number
of deals)
Percentage of total funding driven by
mega-rounds
Total amount raised through
mega-rounds (total amount raised),
US$ millions
Mean average percentage of total
funding by each mega-round in quarter
Average mega-round deal size
(US$ millions)
Q1 2018 2 (66) 38% 275 (724) 19% 138
Q2 2018 1 (71) 35% 200 (579) 35% 200
Q3 2018 3 (57) 49% 615 (1,260) 16% 205
Q4 2018 4 (63) 70% 1,116 (1,590) 18% 279
Q1 2019 2 (85) 44% 625 (1,420) 22% 313
Q2 2019 4 (69) 57% 802 (1,410) 14% 201
Q3 2019 4 (83) 52% 780 (1,500) 13% 195
Q4 2019 4 (75) 56% 1,115 (1,990) 14% 279
Q1 2020 1 (96) 11% 100 (912) 11% 100
Q2 2020 4 (74) 45% 705 (1,560) 11% 176
Q3 2020 6 (104) 70% 1,760 (2,500) 12% 293
Q4 2020 6 (103) 50% 1,052 (2,100) 8% 175
Q1 2021 8 (146) 44% 1,133 (2,550) 6% 142
Q2 2021 15 (162) 67% 3,300 (4,800) 4% 220
Total 64 49% (average) 13,578 15% 208
4 willistowerswatson.com Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q3 2021 5
Foreword continued
If we look at the average total percentage of mega-round deals per quarter, we can see that approximately 50% of InsurTech investment goes into mega-round deals. What is particularly interesting is that in the past few quarters, each individual mega- round does seem to be representing an increasingly small(er) percentage of quarterly raises. This is most likely a reflection of an increased number of mega-rounds being done on a quarterly basis. We know that many InsurTechs before going public wish to embark on a big raise to increase their company value, and with it create unicorn status (i.e., start-up companies in the software or technology industry that are valued at over $1 billion). Four InsurTech unicorns were created in 2018, five in 2019, five in 2020 and eight so far in 2021. Depending on your definition of InsurTech, it could be argued that there are now 24 InsurTech unicorns in existence.
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Duck Creek Technologies Bright Health Hippo
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Figure 2 : Relative/comparable InsurTech stock price changes over time pegged to zero beginning January 2021, including S&P 500 to benchmark
The topic of unicorn creation leads us to ask the same question we asked exactly two years ago (in the Q3 2019 Quarterly InsurTech Briefing): At what point does a “group of unicorns” become an oxymoron? Well, it has come to our attention that there is such a thing as a group of unicorns: A “blessing” of unicorns is the collective noun for such a group. Are the InsurTech unicorns in our midst a blessing? That remains to be seen. In Q3 alone, there have been a couple of new unicorns added to this “blessing.” U.K. motor InsurTech Marshmallow joined the blessing club following an impressive $85 million raise, on a $1.25 billion valuation. Similarly, unicorns also publicly unveiled themselves this quarter as well. Just days after Q2 2021 closed, both Hippo (already a unicorn) and Doma went public.
Figure 2 shows the stock prices over time of some of the global InsurTechs that have gone public. In order to create a graph of stock price change relativity, we pegged S&P 500 and eight InsurTechs at zero for the beginning of the year (Metromile, Oscar, Bright Health and Hippo are introduced at the point of going public with the same peg) to illustrate relative performance over the same time period. While this is extremely crude, what we are attempting to present is the convergence of seemingly correlated public InsurTech stock performances. Interestingly, Duck Creek Technologies has moved away from the rest of the highlighted group and is performing closer to what we are seeing across the S&P 500
Data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Figure 3: Annual InsurTech funding trends, including transaction volume and dollar amount, 2012 – Q3 2021
Investment amount Number of deals
Yea r
$348 $276 $868
$2,721 $1,742
$2,274
$4,167
$6,348 $7,108
$10,503
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94
132
176
218
262
314
377
421
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
U S
$ m
ill io
n
D e
al s
The volume of investment capital in the first three quarters of 2021 has surpassed the $10 billion mark for the first time in a single year in InsurTech investment history.
This latest Quarterly InsurTech Briefing is announcing that global InsurTechs continue to see a strong trajectory in Q3. This quarter, global InsurTech funding reached an enormous $3.1 billion. This represents a 23% increase compared with the same period last year and is notably the second-largest funding quarter on record. For the first time in history, we are seeing in excess of $10 billion being invested in a single year into this truly global phenomena. The total number of deals is also now at an all-time high as well, with 421 deals completed this year to date.
average. While we cannot read too much into the relative performance of one business, it is worth noting that with the exception of GoHealth (a marketplace), all other InsurTech models here present are risk originating, whereas Duck Creek is a software-as-a-service (SaaS) technology provider for our industry. Perhaps over time we will see that certain InsurTech business models perform better over time once they have gone public. To reiterate the point made in Q2, this highly correlated behavior of the InsurTech “pack” is possibly a reflection of how the market views InsurTech in general (as a single animal), and not ( just) a reflection of individual business performance.
Carrying on from the Q2 recordings, the stock price performance of many publicly traded InsurTechs continued to be a generally downward trend throughout Q3. While this does not seem to be dampening the trend of more InsurTechs wanting to launch an initial public offering (IPO) (and investment capital backing this trajectory), it will over time become harder and harder for InsurTechs to command the sorts of valuations that we have been observing if this trend continues in perpetuity. Additionally, it will become especially difficult for certain InsurTech businesses (to command current valuations) if it does become clearer/apparent that certain InsurTech business models are much more conducive to price defense, or at least performance of a more robust manner
over time. It is worth noting, however, that the high(er)-valued InsurTechs (in the buildup to IPO) are currently still typically those businesses that are capable of demonstrating very high sales/ volume growth, and this type of growth can realistically only be supported by certain types of business models — typically risk origination. As we can see post IPO, however, per Figure 2 of relative stock change performances on the prior page, risk- originating InsurTech’s stock performance seems to be trending downward, as a group — at least for the time being. This is certainly something for us to keep an eye on.
“The topic of unicorn creation leads us to ask the same question we asked exactly two years ago (in the Q3 2019 Quarterly InsurTech Briefing): At what point does a “group of unicorns” become an oxymoron? Well, it has come to our attention that there is such a thing as a group of unicorns: A “blessing” of unicorns is the collective noun for such a group. Are the InsurTech unicorns in our midst a blessing?”
6 willistowerswatson.com Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q3 2021 7
Foreword continued
Undoubtedly, one of the biggest drivers of overvalued valuations for businesses in this space is the continued prevalence of venture capital (VC) investors who have turned to InsurTechs to expand their portfolios and make the most of relatively buoyant markets. If we look at the past 10 years, the number of venture investors participating in InsurTech is staggering — especially when considered through the lens of year-on-year new entrant activity. In this instance, we define a “venture investor” to include the following types of investor/capital: VC, corporate venture, super angels and growth equity. (Note, investors may have participated in multiple deals in a given year but will only be counted once in the data we will present in Figure 5).
The graph above shows the annual InsurTech funding totals ($ million). To date, 2021 totals $10.503 billion. This is $12 million short of the entirety of 2018 and 2019 added together.
Figure 4 : Annual InsurTech funding totals, 2012 – Q3 2021
348 276 868
2,721
1,742 2,274
4,167
6,348
7,108
10,503
0
2,000
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10,000
12,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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l ( U
S $
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io n
)
In certain cases, the motivations of outside VC providers are relatively short-term focused and therefore greater emphasis is placed on volume and inbound growth versus sustainable loss (and therefore combined) ratios — or at least business models that can be self-sustaining without the assistance of investment capital. This venture investment cycle is self-perpetuating on the way up; venture capitalists are looking to drive valuations up, and this in turn attracts other venture capitalists who are attracted to these new areas of growth. This too is reflected in the steady and significant rise in venture investors participating in InsurTech investments over the years; that is to say, it is not just the prevalence of innovative technology in our industry or “the great untapped” that is luring new venture investors in. Given that there is clearly an increasing venture investor audience participating in the global InsurTech landscape, it is worth considering this every time a significant raise is completed or a new unicorn joins the blessing. It is also worth consistently checking back to the many motivations that a variety of investors have when we evaluate the timeline around the future of the InsurTech valuation peak — and perhaps most important, the types of investment motivations of the capital supporting InsurTech businesses. Bearing this in mind does help to rationalize certain
valuations that might otherwise be considered irrational (relative to business performance on traditional [re] insurance metrics).
Given that much of the capital coming into InsurTechs is attracted to volume and inbound growth (particularly of gross written premium), many of the most highly valued InsurTech businesses by venture investors are unsurprisingly risk-originating businesses. There are, however, many hundreds of InsurTech businesses that focus on distribution and business-to-business (B2B) software vendor models that might themselves be fantastic businesses but are unlikely to achieve the types of elevated company valuations that their carrier-model InsurTech cousins are commanding (at the moment). One cannot help but think that this current trend of overvalued businesses going public might not actually be a blessing at all. Will some of these underwhelming InsurTechs ultimately jeopardize our overall view of technology as it continues to come into our industry? Will they be the heat that dries up investment funding that should actually be looking for a better home? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: The vast majority of InsurTech businesses are unlikely to receive many of the dollars that dominate most InsurTech news stories.
Year (to date)
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153 178
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
In 2012, we estimate that globally 153 venture investors put their capital to work into businesses that self-identified with the label of “InsurTech.” Two years later, in 2014, that number had nearly doubled to 278 venture investors. Two years after that, in 2016, it was on the road to doubling again to 511 venture investors. In 2021, we estimate that, to date, 1,118 venture investors have their attention firmly set on the world of InsurTech – almost 7.5 times the original number we estimate for 2012. These investors are situated across the globe with varying appetites and mandates; some have a very specific InsurTech strategy, and others are making the most of the opportunity as they see it. As Figure 4 shows, there seems to be no slowing down of venture investors wanting to participate in this space, and in the short term at least, this only looks set to continue. It does, however, make the grey matter (in terms of both promising InsurTech business, and market opportunity) and capital balance increasingly out of proportion (and as a result will continue to support [and drive] the sorts of frothy overvaluations we have been seeing for many years now — a financial game of musical chairs, if you will).
Figure 5: Venture investors in InsurTech
**Investors may have participated in multiple deals in a given year, but will only be counted once in the data we will present in Figure 5
While we have not (visually) delineated the graph down to a quarterly basis for venture investor numbers in figure 5., we can see from our own raw data that, from a quarterly perspective, Q2 2021 saw a record number of VCs participating in InsurTech deals (570 unique investors). In Q3 2021, despite the number coming down from Q2’s peak, Q3 recorded a very impressive 396 unique investors writing InsurTech checks. This makes Q3 2021 the second highest quarter of unique investor activity, with only Q2 2021 being higher.
8 willistowerswatson.com Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q3 2021 9
Foreword continued
Q3 data highlights
InsurTech funding falls from its previous record high but remains elevated, raising $3.1 billion across 113 deals
Global InsurTechs continue to see a strong trajectory in Q3. This quarter, global InsurTech funding reached $3.1 billion. While this figure represents a 35% decrease from the prior quarter, it still represents a 23% increase compared with the same period last year and is notably the second-largest funding quarter on record.
After two consecutive quarters of deal growth, InsurTech deal activity fell nearly 30% from Q2 to 113 deals; however, year over year, overall deal activity was up 9% reflecting continued growth.
This quarter, mega-rounds remained elevated at 11; furthermore, outsize deals accounted for roughly 51% of total funding, compared with nearly 70% in Q2.
After reaching the lowest level since Q2 2018 last quarter, the share of U.S.-domiciled companies rebounded to nearly 46%, an increase of roughly seven points from Q2 2021. Countries including Indonesia, Sweden, South Africa, Singapore and the U.A.E. all saw quarter-on-quarter increases in deal activity as InsurTech continues to scale across the globe.
Early-stage average deal sizes grow to nearly $12 million, up 90% compared with Q2 2021
Early-stage start-ups raised a record-breaking $630 million in Q3 despite deals falling by 39% quarter on quarter to 57 deals. Given this dynamic, the average deal size across early-stage deals grew to nearly $12 million, an increase of more than 90% quarter on quarter and nearly 80% year on year.
The mix of early-stage deals also saw a notable shift in Q3. As a share of total deals, Seed/Angel rounds have fallen dramatically, reaching the lowest point since Q2 2020. Seed/Angel deals accounted for just 19% of overall deals — a 23-point decrease quarter on quarter and a 12-point decrease year on year. Conversely, Series A saw notable growth and accounted for 31%
of all deal activity, a 15-point increase quarter on quarter and a six- point increase year on year.
Cyber insurance-focused start-ups represented two of the top three largest deals this quarter, as cyber continues to be a major business challenge.
Cybersecurity continues to be a major challenge for corporate executives and small businesses alike as the threat and frequency of cyber attacks continue to grow.
Of the three largest rounds this quarter, two of the start-ups were focused on offering cyber insurance, including Coalition, which raised a $205 million Series E, and At-Bay, which raised a $185 million Series D. We will feature the At-Bay deal in our Transaction Spotlight section.
Companies deploy a variety of models to approach cyber insurance, including tech-enabled managing general agents (MGAs) to underwriting and risk analytics providers. Outside of the top three deals, Envelop Risk, which focuses on cyber underwriting services to (re)insurers, inked a sizeable $130 million Series B, while even earlier in the funnel, BOXX Insurance and Y-Combinator-incubated Telivy each raised funding to grow its solutions further.
If we look specifically at Q3’s mega-round headlines, to reiterate, of the 113 deals done in Q3, 11 were “mega”. In terms of volume of capital committed, these 11 deals accounted for 51% of the total amount of capital invested in the quarter. The table below shows the impact that Q3’s results have had on the overall average trajectory of mega-round funding into InsurTech (between 2018 and now). While it has done little to significantly alter the overall numbers, Q3’s results support the theory that the number of mega-rounds being done per quarter is generally on the rise (this is the second largest quarter ever for mega-rounds recorded). Consequently, each individual mega-round deal represents a steadily decreasing percentage of total mega-round activity, while we observe the continued trend for more than 50% of quarterly funding to be concentrated into just a handful of deals.
This quarterly briefing’s contents
This Quarterly InsurTech Briefing, the third in the 2021 series, will focus on InsurTechs, InsurTech initiatives and thought leaders focused on the future of risk — arguably the most important topic of the entire series. In this particular briefing, we will be featuring the following InsurTechs:
1. OTONOMI OTONOMI is a blockchain-enabled parametric MGA that transforms cargo insurance policies into fast, cost-effective and transparent digital products.
2. Corvus Corvus Insurance is the leading provider of commercial insurance products built on advanced data science, with an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approach to empowering brokers and policyholders to better predict and prevent loss.
3. Arbol Arbol is an InsurTech platform for parametric weather risk products that help businesses of any size or location build resilience against climate change risks.
4. Stable Stable is a financial services and risk management-focused business that provides price risk management for the food and farming industry.
5. Understory Understory builds and sells insurance solutions for the most challenging climate risks, powered by hyperlocal risk models and a breakthrough digital platform.
6. Concirrus Concirrus is an InsurTech that is harnessing the power of the internet of things (IoT), satellite imagery and AI to help create digital insurance products and drive significant cost savings. 7. Kettle Kettle is structured as a technology-empowered reinsurance MGA that is bringing advanced AI to the $400 billion-a-year reinsurance industry, starting with California wildfires.
8. Previsico Previsico’s modeling technology is the next generation of flood warnings, created to mitigate flood losses and save lives and livelihoods worldwide. Previsico forecasts and warns of surface water flooding, the biggest flood risk of all.
In this quarter’s The Art of the Possible, we speak to Manny Citron at Volery Capital, about the evolving role of impact capital in supporting innovative InsurTech businesses, and Toby Behrman at Global Parametrics, about the use of development capital and cutting-edge technology to help introduce traditional liquidity into new and underserved risk transfer markets.
In this quarter’s Incumbent Corner, we speak to Brendan Smyth, SVP, Global Innovation and Insights and Premal Gohil, Head of Innovation Partnerships & Investments at Liberty Mutual, to discuss Liberty’s global innovation and InsurTech efforts.
This quarter’s Thought Leadership comes from Willis Towers Watson’s Julian Roberts, managing director, Alternative Risk Transfer Solutions. Julian shares his thoughts on the future of risk management and the increased impact that technology is having on our industry.
This quarter’s Transaction Spotlight highlights tech-enabled commercial flood risk MGA reThought on its $15.5 million Series A round, and cyber and tech errors and omissions for small business InsurTech At-Bay on its $185 million Series D round.
As ever, we thank you for your continued support.
The future of risk
The future of risk
The future of distribution and delivery
The future of product and service
The future of process and operations
The future of risk
Quarter/ Year
Number of mega-rounds (total number of deals)
Percentage of total funding driven by mega-rounds (number of deals)
Total amount raised through mega-rounds (total amount raised), US$ millions
Mean average percentage of total funding by each mega-round in quarter
Average mega-round deal size (US$ millions)
Q3 2021 11 (113) 51% 1,588 (3,127) 5% 144
Total 64 49% (rounded) 13,578 15% (rounded) 208
Total plus Q3 data
75 49% (rounded) 15,166 14% (rounded) 204
10 willistowerswatson.com Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q3 2021 11
Introduction The future of risk
Introduction
This edition of the Quarterly InsurTech Briefing focuses on the future of risk. Specifically, we will be assessing the various ways in which technology and InsurTech are attempting to foster and drive innovations that ultimately lead to a better outcome for consumers, risk originators, intermediaries, vendors of technology and capacity providers.
The future of risk is obviously an enormous topic and issue for us to grapple with, and to that extent we will attempt to ring-fence what we mean by risk from the outset. When discussing risk, we are specifically talking about the change in value due to deviations between actual and expected insurance costs. As it relates to the future of risk, we will focus on those losses and costs that are being driven by emerging and evolving threats, which are both human and non-human, systemic and individual in nature. Furthermore, we will be exploring the extent to which technology is helping us to manage (and succeed in tackling) these risks, but also the extent to which technology is exacerbating this issue.
When reviewing the possible avenues and directions we could take to spotlight the future of risk, we think the nine areas illustrated below are arguably the most pertinent areas to consider.
1. Climate change/weather 2. Cyber/Digital Outage 3. Increased urbanization 4. Changing behaviour 5. AI/Robotics
While we will not be able go into extensive detail on each of these nine topics in this briefing, we will certainly focus on the two that we deem to be the most impactful and influential (as specific insurance- related risks) for the next two to three decades: climate change and cyber/digital outage. At its essence, the future of risk for our planet really orbits
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