Once the frame, or “shell,” of the outcome matrix is in place (options and criteria), the policy analysis team embarks on the challenging task of filling the blank internal cells in the matrix.
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Get it written →Once the frame, or “shell,” of the outcome matrix is in place (options and criteria), the policy analysis team embarks on the challenging task of filling the blank internal cells in the matrix. Each blank inner box represents the intersection of one policy option and one criterion. Filling each blank box therefore requires its own mini-analysis to predict and evaluate how THAT policy option is likely to perform against THAT criterion.
The astute policy analyst needs to answer two related core questions in order to complete the matrix:
(1) The prediction question: If policy makers choose Option A, what is most likely to happen? (Repeat for Options B, C, D, etc.)
(2) The evaluation question: How do the different expected outcomes (hypothetical futures) for Options A, B, C, etc, measure up against our criteria? Your answers to this question supply the content for filling the blank boxes in the outcome matrix shell.
Note: These two questions are usually impossible to answer definitively because none of us has a reliable “crystal ball.” Just do your best based on whatever evidence you can muster. As you engage with this unit’s examples, pay attention to the wide variety of approaches to projection.
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Assignment:
1. Summarize at least three key points from the required materials. Look for ideas that bridge across the assigned readings.
– Please identify which readings you are discussing in each of your points.
– When you see a similar or related (or conflicting) point being made across two or more different readings, be sure to point that out!
2. Articulate one question, puzzle, or point of confusion prompted by the assigned material.
3. Required materials :
– 8 Steps: Part I, Steps 5-7
– M&S: Chapters 6 & 7
– CBO carbon emissions (read pp. vii-xiv and focus on Table 1)
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