Explain how the population has changed in Texas and how it is projected to change in the future.? In what ways might Texas’ politics change in the future based on its racial and ethnic

The Texas Demographic Center is responsible for interpreting and communicating information on demographic and socioeconomic issues for the State of Texas and the general public and through robust and quality projections, inform planning and policy-making related to the demand and provision of services across the State.

In this Brief:

 The latest population projections include more recent migration trends, a new race/ethnicity category, and expand the age distribution to 95 years plus.

 The newly added non- Hispanic Asian group is projected to grow at the fastest rate, growing five-fold by 2050.

 The Hispanic population will likely surpass the non- Hispanic white population by 2022 but is not projected to make up the majority of the state population during the projections horizon.

 Much of the population growth in Texas is projected to come from the large urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Tarrant and neighboring suburban counties. The fastest growth is projected to occur in these suburban counties as well as in the Permian Basin area.

Texas Population Projections 2010 to 2050

The Texas Demographic Center produces population projections for 40 years beyond the most recent Census to help planners and policymakers anticipate future demand for services and pressures on infrastructure. In our most recent set of projections, one migration scenario is employed in which the migration patterns observed in Texas between 2010 and 2015 are assumed throughout the projections horizon. Additionally, this updated set of projections includes a new race/ethnicity category, non-Hispanic Asian, and expands the age distribution to 95 years and older. This document provides a brief overview of the statewide population projections for 2010 to 2050 using the migration trends observed in Texas between 2010-2015. This scenario represents our recommended scenario as it most closely reflects the most recent migration trends. Projections using the previous migration scenarios can be accessed by contacting our office. Our full methodology can be found on our website. Migration rates between 2010 and 2015 were somewhat lower than migration rates observed in Texas between 2000 and 2010. This updated scenario yields a state population approaching 47.4 million by 2050, which represents an 88.3 percent increase over that period. Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population Our population projections suggest the majority of Texas counties will experience continued steady population growth between 2010 and 2050. This is especially the case for suburban

JANUARY 2019

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counties surrounding the large urban centers of Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. All of these suburban counties are projected to experience a growth rate greater than that of the State as a whole, with 27 of these counties projected to double their populations by 2050. Additionally, a number of counties in the Permian Basin and surrounding the Midland-Odessa area will also see continued growth. Although many of the large urban counties are also projected to experience high growth rates, only Harris, Bexar, and Travis Counties are expected to grow faster than the State. These projections also indicate slower growth in areas of the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso County. Lastly, our projections suggest continued population decline in 99 counties, located mostly in West Texas, parts of

East Texas, and parts of South Texas. Projections by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity Age The current population projections expand the age distribution to include the population aged 95 years and older. This age group is captured in Tables 1 and 2 below in the 85 plus age category. When compared to the other age categories, the age category including Texans over 85 years of age is projected to grow at the fastest rate. The eldest seniors, those 85 years of age and older, are projected to nearly quadruple in size between 2010 and 2050, approaching 1.5 million. The age category including those 65 to 84 years of age is projected to

2010-2015 Migration Trends

Domestic migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2010 and 2015, while international migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2000 and 2010. This is one of the most important key differences in how the migration trends employed in the latest population projections differ from the migration trends observed between 2000 and 2010.

On average, net migration contributed approximately 178,000 migrants annually to the Texas population between 2000 and 2010. By contrast, between 2010 and 2015, net migration contributed an average of 198,000 migrants annually to the state population. In essence, an additional 20,000 net migrants were added annually to the Texas population during this most recent migration period than during the last decade.

Net migration to the state is comprised of domestic migration (or migrants moving to Texas from other states) and international migration (or immigrants moving to Texas from another country). Between 2000 and 2010, international migration made up over half, or 52 percent, of the total net migration to the state, and domestic migration contributed about 48 percent of the total net migration. In contrast, between 2010 and 2015, domestic migration made up over 60 percent of the total net migration to the state, compared to less than 38 percent added from international migration.

These differences in the migration patterns employed in our most recent population projections have significant implications for the projected findings. For instance, certain parts of the state are most impacted by population changes associated with domestic migration, whereas other parts of the state are more impacted by changes in international migration. The latest projections indicate faster and more growth in areas characterized by high domestic migration and slower growth in some border counties and other areas of the state with high shares of international migration. Additionally, domestic migration is more often characterized by migration of non-Hispanic whites, whereas international migration to Texas is more often characterized by migration of Hispanics. Therefore, the most recent projections employing the 2010 to 2015 migration patterns produce an increased rate of growth for the non-Hispanic white population and a slower rate of growth for Hispanics. Indeed, if the patterns of strong domestic migration (mostly comprised of migration by non-Hispanic whites) and a smaller share of international migration continues into the future, our projections indicate this pattern could mitigate and even compensate for the aging effect of the Baby Boom generation on the Texas population.

These projections, like all projections, are beholden to their underlying assumptions, which may or may not occur. One such key assumption is the migration scenario. Migration trends to Texas between 2010 and 2015 represent a high migration period, particularly domestic migration of non- Hispanic Whites. More recent data, yet to be incorporated into the Population Estimates and Projections Program, indicate slower and more diversified migration rates to Texas. As we continue to diligently observe emerging demographic trends in Texas and incorporate new data, we will update our projections.

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Projected Percent Population Change in Texas Counties, 2010 to 2050 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

be the second fastest growing age group, nearly doubling in size by 2050 to a population of over 6.8 million. The younger age categories are projected to continue a slower but steady growth, with children, ages 0 to 4 and 5 to 17, projected to be the slowest growing age groups.

Sex The 2010 Census showed nearly equal proportions of males and females in the State, with slightly more females than males. Both groups are projected to approach 24 million by 2050. The sex ratio is projected to remain about the same

throughout the projections horizon and ends with slightly more females than males. Race/Ethnicity This most recent set of projections includes the addition of the non-Hispanic Asian race/ethnicity category. In previous projections, the non-Hispanic Asian group was part of the non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic category. Projections indicate this new race/ethnicity group, non-Hispanic Asians, will grow at the fastest rate, when compared to other racial/ ethnic categories. The non-Hispanic Asian population is projected to near 6 million by 2050, with a

Less than 0% (99)

0% to < 25% (76)

25% to < 50% (20)

50% to < 75% (18)

75% to < 100% (14)

100% and greater (27)

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Population Characteristics

Census 2000 Census 2010 Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population 20,851,820 25,145,561 29,677,772 34,894,429 40,686,490 47,342,417

Male 10,352,910 12,472,280 14,740,086 17,341,937 20,244,264 23,615,366

Female 10,498,910 12,673,281 14,937,686 17,552,492 20,442,226 23,727,051

NH White 10,933,313 11,397,345 12,138,523 12,774,056 13,203,514 13,523,839

NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 3,557,892 4,322,983 5,141,963 6,030,795

NH Asian 554,445 948,426 1,525,629 2,414,732 3,772,125 5,782,908

NH Other 330,141 452,044 651,069 929,709 1,308,068 1,813,125

Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 11,804,659 14,452,949 17,260,820 20,191,750

0-4 Years 1,624,628 1,928,473 2,115,100 2,414,592 2,675,167 3,017,091

5-17 Years 4,262,131 4,937,351 5,400,039 6,037,060 6,895,497 7,730,367

18-44 Years 8,683,202 9,644,824 11,285,372 13,114,679 14,924,002 17,094,930

45-64 Years 4,209,327 6,033,027 6,965,222 7,751,644 9,282,886 11,193,348

65-84 Years 1,834,592 2,296,707 3,492,491 4,962,354 5,865,610 6,811,337

85 Years Plus 237,940 305,179 419,548 614,100 1,043,328 1,495,344

population growth rate of more than 5 times the 2010 population. The non-Hispanic Asian population is projected to make up over 12 percent of the total State population in 2050. The non-Hispanic Other race/ethnicity category, consisting mostly of population of two or more races, continues to grow rapidly and is projected to grow to nearly 2 million by 2050, tripling in size during this time period. The Hispanic population is growing at a rapid rate as well as increasing its proportion of the total State population. Our projections suggest the Hispanic population will more than double its size in 2010 to over 20 million by 2050. The non-Hispanic black population is also projected to double in size, growing to over 6 million by 2050. The non-Hispanic white population is projected to grow at a steady but slower pace relative to the other race/ ethnicity categories, growing to a total population of 13.5 million by 2050. Our population projections

suggest the Hispanic population will likely surpass the non-Hispanic White population in size by 2022. However, the Hispanic population is not projected to make up a majority of the Texas population throughout this projection’s 2050 horizon.

Table 1. Texas Population 2000, 2010 and Projected Population, 2020-2050 by Select Characteristics

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structure. Most strikingly, the projected population pyramid for Texas in 2050 loses much of its pyramidal shape and begins to look more like a rectangle, with a slightly tapered base — indicating

decreasing fertility rates, and a broader “peak” — representing the growing proportion of those in the older age categories. While the older age categories, ages 60 plus, are projected to include more females than males, the age categories including those under 60 years are projected to include more males. Population Growth and Decline in Texas Counties Numerically, much of the population growth is projected to come from the large urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Tarrant, with each of these

Projected Age Structure of the Population Population pyramids for Texas in 2010 and 2050 reveal key changes in the sex and age

Population Characteristics

Projected Percent Change from 2010, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

Projected Numeric Change from 2010, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population 4,532,211 9,748,868 15,540,929 22,196,856 18.02 38.77 61.80 88.27

Male 2,267,806 4,869,657 7,771,984 11,143,086 18.18 39.04 62.31 89.34

Female 2,264,405 4,879,211 7,768,945 11,053,770 17.87 38.50 61.30 87.22

NH White 741,178 1,376,711 1,806,169 2,126,494 6.50 12.08 15.85 18.66

NH Black 671,067 1,436,158 2,255,138 3,143,970 23.25 49.75 78.12 108.91

NH Asian 577,203 1,466,306 2,823,699 4,834,482 60.86 154.60 297.72 509.74

NH Other 199,025 477,665 856,024 1,361,081 44.03 105.67 189.37 301.09

Hispanic 2,343,738 4,992,028 7,799,899 10,730,829 24.77 52.76 82.44 113.42

0-4 Years 186,627 486,119 746,694 1,088,618 9.68 25.21 38.72 56.45

5-17 Years 462,688 1,099,709 1,958,146 2,793,016 9.37 22.27 39.66 56.57

18-44 Years 1,640,548 3,469,855 5,279,178 7,450,106 17.01 35.98 54.74 77.24

45-64 Years 932,195 1,718,617 3,249,859 5,160,321 15.45 28.49 53.87 85.53

65-84 Years 1,195,784 2,665,647 3,568,903 4,514,630 52.07 116.06 155.39 196.57

85 Years Plus 114,369 308,921 738,149 1,190,165 37.48 101.23 241.87 389.99

Table 2. Texas Projected Numeric and Percent Change, 2010 to 2050 by Select Characteristics

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counties projected to add over one million people by 2050. Other counties projected to add over one million in population during this time period, include Fort Bend, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Montgomery. Together, these counties are projected to add over 15.5 million between 2010 and 2050. The top 10 counties projected to have the fastest growth rates are a combination of suburban counties, such as Hays, Kendall, Williamson, Fort Bend, and Comal, and counties in the Permian Basin area, including Andrews, Crane, Midland, and Ector. Karnes County, located southeast of San Antonio, is projected to grow at the fastest rate of all the Texas counties. All of these suburban counties are projected to more than double their

County Ranking 2010 2050 Percent

Change

Karnes 1 14,824 126,431 752.88

Andrews 2 14,786 100,627 580.56

Hays 3 157,107 743,171 373.03

Crane 4 4,375 18,418 320.98

Midland 5 136,872 573,085 318.70

Kendall 6 33,410 138,957 315.91

Williamson 7 422,679 1,638,796 287.72

Fort Bend 8 585,375 2,254,963 285.22

Ector 9 137,130 494,413 260.54

Comal 10 108,472 389,328 258.92

Floyd 245 6,446 4,220 -34.53

Comanche 246 13,974 8,960 -35.88

Lamb 247 13,977 8,867 -36.56

Sabine 248 10,834 6,816 -37.09

Jeff Davis 249 2,342 1,454 -37.92

Hale 250 36,273 22,050 -39.21

Clay 251 10,752 6,309 -41.32

Castro 252 8,062 4,605 -42.88

Parmer 253 10,269 5,757 -43.93

Presidio 254 7,818 2,654 -66.05

populations between 2010 and 2050, adding a total population of over 4.8 million or 22 percent of the total State population change projected between 2010 and 2050. Although Texas is generally characterized by rapid and high growth, 99 of the 254 counties are projected to have declines in population. Hale County, located in the Texas Panhandle, is projected to have the greatest population decline between 2010 and 2050, projected to lose over 14,000 residents during this time period. Among counties with the greatest population losses are counties mostly in rural and more sparsely populated areas of the state, particularly in parts of West, East, and South Texas. Two counties with populations over 100,000 are among the top counties with the

Table 4. Top 10 Texas Counties with Greatest and Least Percent Change between 2010 and 2050 2010-

2015 Migration Scenario

County Ranking 2010 2050 Numeric

Change

Harris 1 4,092,459 7,900,994 3,808,535

Fort Bend 2 585,375 2,254,963 1,669,588

Collin 3 782,341 2,444,316 1,661,975

Denton 4 662,614 2,323,056 1,660,442

Bexar 5 1,714,773 3,343,929 1,629,156

Dallas 6 2,368,139 3,858,686 1,490,547

Tarrant 7 1,809,034 3,184,835 1,375,801

Williamson 8 422,679 1,638,796 1,216,117

Montgomery 9 455,746 1,483,476 1,027,7

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