Develop a clear and concise synopsis of the case study.

Based on your review and analysis of the “The Estimating Problem” case study (Kerzner, 2022, p. 527), addresses the following key elements:

Develop a clear and concise synopsis of the case study.

Explain how the identified problem affects the project’s schedule, cost, and scope.

In your own words, with cited support from peer-reviewed or professionally published sources such as CSU Global library resources, clearly and concisely define the construct of the schedule’s critical path. Describe how the identified problem may affect the schedule’s critical path.

Assess whether the estimating method used was appropriate. If so, what would cause the results to be questionable? If not, what estimating method would you recommend? Substantively justify your response using cited peer-reviewed or professionally published sources such as CSU Global library resources.

Assess the pros and cons of the extant estimating process; what, if any, changes would you recommend?

Please note that extant estimating is not a term of art in project management. You need to identify the extant (i.e., existing) estimating process in the organization referenced in the case study. By doing this, you will specify the current state-of-project-management in the area of estimating.

Write an essay to addresses the above-noted requirements, and properly organize your writing by including the following:

Cover page

Introduction

Body of your work in response to the assignment’s key elements, with headings and subheadings

Conclusion

List of references

Appendices (as applicable)

The introduction through conclusion sections of your essay should be approximately 4-5 pages in length. Support your assignment with a minimum of three peer-reviewed or professionally published sources. Links to an external site. resources. The case study is attached. (The week’s critical thinking assignment presents a scenario where a company wins a competitive bid and what happens immediately after that. Here are some common mistakes to watch out for.

The third paragraph in the case study (Kerzner, 2022) starts “One of the most critical work packages in the project was estimated at twelve weeks” (p. 527). Note that the twelve week estimate is for a work package, not the whole project.

Take note of the grade level of the employees whose opinion was requested compared to the estimated resource.

The word “extant” means existing in this case study.

The calculation for the three point estimate is found in our textbook (Kerzner, 2022, p. 455). If you do not use that formula, you will not come out with 12 weeks.

You have five separate topics to discuss, in addition to your Introduction and Conclusion. I would expect to see five subheadings for those topics in addition to your Introduction and Conclusion.)

Requirements: 5 pages

Case Study

Angelica just received the good news: She was assigned as the project manager for a project that her company won as part of competitive bidding. Whenever a request for proposal (RFP) comes into Angelica’s company, a committee composed mainly of senior managers reviews the RFP. If the decision is made to bid on the job, the RFP is turned over to the Proposal Department. Part of the Proposal Department is an estimating group that is responsible for estimating all work. If the estimating group has no previous history concerning some of the deliverables or work packages and is unsure about the time and cost for the work, the estimating team will then ask the functional managers for assistance with estimating.

Project managers like Angelica do not often participate in the bidding process. Usually, their first knowledge about the project comes after the contract is awarded to their company and they are assigned as the project manager. Some project managers are highly optimistic and trust the estimates that were submitted in the bid implicitly unless, of course, a significant span of time has elapsed between the date of submittal of the proposal and the final contract award date. Angelica, however, is somewhat pessimistic. She believes that accepting the estimates as they were submitted in the proposal is like playing Russian roulette. As such, Angelica prefers to review the estimates.

One of the most critical work packages in the project was estimated at twelve weeks using one grade 7 employee full-time. Angelica had performed this task on previous projects and it required one person full-time for 14 weeks. Angelica asked the estimating group how they arrived at this estimate. The estimating group responded that they used the three-point estimate where the optimistic time was four weeks, the most likely time was 13 weeks, and the pessimistic time was 16 weeks.

Angelica believed that the three-point estimate was way off of the mark. The only way that this work package could ever be completed in four weeks would be for a very small project nowhere near the complexity of Angelica’s project. Therefore, the estimating group was not considering any complexity factors when using the three-point estimate. Had the estimating group used the triangular distribution where each of the three estimates had an equal likelihood of occurrence, the final estimate would have been 13 weeks. This was closer to the 14 weeks that Angelica thought the work package would take. While a difference of a week seems small, it could have a serious impact on Angelica’s project and incur penalties for late delivery.

Angelica was now still confused and decided to talk to Michael, the employee who was assigned to do this task. Angelica had worked with Michael on previous projects. Michael was a grade 9 employee and considered to be an expert in this work package. As part of the discussions with Angelica, Michael made the following comments:

I have seen estimating databases that include this type of work package and they all estimate the work package at about 14 weeks. I do not understand why our estimating group prefers to use the three-point estimate.

“Does the typical database account for project complexity when considering the estimates?” asked Angelica. Michael responded:

Some databases have techniques for considering complexity, but mostly they just assume an average complexity level. When complexity is important, as it is in our project, analogy estimating would be better. Using analogy estimating and comparing the complexity of the work package on this project to the similar works packages I have completed, I would say that 16–17 weeks is closer to reality, and let’s hope I do not get removed from the project to put out a fire somewhere else in the company. That would be terrible. It is impossible for me to get it done in 12 weeks. And adding more people to this work package will not shorten the schedule. It may even make it worse.

Angelica then asked Michael one more question:

Michael, you are a grade 9 and considered the subject matter expert. If a grade 7 had been assigned, as the estimating group had said, how long would it have taken the grade 7 to do the job?

“Probably about 20 weeks or so,” responded Michael.

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