Vago says that this drilling will be the deepest that hu-mans have ever before pried into the planet.This is a 3-D rover,? says Vago. For the first time, we will be able to look into Mars?s
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tain dirt and rock samples. Vago says that this drilling will be the deepest that hu-mans have ever before pried into the planet.This is a 3-D rover,? says Vago. For the first time, we will be able to look into Mars?s third dimension, that of depth.?The rover will deposit the samples into a cache. Sometime after 2024, a third robotic mission may retrieve the samples and fly them back to Earth for astronomers to study in person.This mission in 2018, you can think of it as the first element of Mars sample return,? says Vago. The long-term aim is Mars sample return.?Viewing Mars?s inner core will probably not be possible any time in the near future, Mumma concludes, but he considers studying the gas emissions up close to be the next-best thing. They may reveal much about what is taking place under the Mar-tian surface.Detecting these effluent gases would be one of the most direct clues. Other than that, we?re stuck with looking at surface land forms,? he says. ?Rick DocksaiSources: Marc Kaufman (interview), The Washington Post; author of First Contact: Scientific Breakthroughs in the Hunt for Life Beyond Earth (Simon & Schuster, 2011. 213 pages. $26).Michael Mumma (interview), NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, www.nasa.gov/goddard.Jorge Vago (interview), European Space Agency, www.esa.int.WorkFour Scenarios for Co-WorkingSharing workspace offers potential benefits in an uncertain economy.Telecommuters, freelancers, and others without a regular office to anchor their workday may suffer from loneliness or re-quire a more professional environment than a local coffeehouse from which to con-companies it, then the methane almost cer-tainly came from something living.We are hopeful that, if we see a meth-ane hotspot, we will look closely for these other gases to see what?s really happen-ing,? says Mumma.While finding life would be momentous, according to ESA ExoMars Project scientist Jorge Vago, so would finding signs of geo-logical movement. Geological activity would suggest a warm inner core. This means that Mars might have enough heat in zones below its surface to sustain micro-bial life.In either case, it will mean the planet is not dead?either from a geological point of view or from a biological point of view,? says Vago.The first ExoMars mission will launch in 2016 and, upon arriving in Martian aero-space in mid-2017, will deploy a rover that will land on the surface and spend four days analyzing the soil and air. The space-craft above will continue orbiting and ana-lyzing atmospheric gases for the next two years.A follow-up ExoMars mission in 2018 will carry a rover with a drilling arm that will tunnel two meters into the soil to ob-8 THE FUTURIST July-August 2011 World Trends & ForecastsThis is a 3-D rover. For the first time, we will be able to look into Mars?s third dimension, that of depth.??Jorge Vago, ESAFuturist Update Your link to tomorrow?s world.Futurist Update: News and Previews from the World Future Society is a free monthly e-mail newsletter sent to all World Future Society members. Nonmembers are welcome to sign up too. There is no better way to keep up with the trends and ideas that are shaping our collective future ? and to stay connected with the futurist community.Recent editions of Futurist Update have covered a wide range of fascinating stories, including: Synthetic photosynthesis via low-cost materials to convert sunlight and water into energy. How the Japan early-warning earthquake system saved lives. Advances in making hydrogen fuel a reality. Planting grass over corn to reduce global temperatures.Futurist Update also keeps you up to date with all that?s happening at the World Future Society (What?s Hot @WFS).FREE! Sign up online: www.wfs.org/futuristupdate.htm
1. Stable econ-omy/stable com-munity. In the best-case sce-nario, co-working has gone main-stream and its ap-peal has ex-panded. More and more compa-nies recognize it as a viable way to increase effi-ciency, productiv-ity, and employee satisfaction and well-being. As a result, employees are offered this option upon be-ing hired. Most co-working spaces are staffed 24 hours a day to accommodate everyone?s sched-ule.2. Stable econ-omy/unstable community. As in the above situation, everyone is generally doing well career-wise. However, most of the advan-tages of co-working?including side bene-fits such as educational classes, guest speakers, social mixers, and other activi-ties?have disappeared. According to this scenario?s authors, new members often arrived to an empty or near empty space and received no orientation or details about their membership.? In the absence of any genuine leadership or investment in the community, those hired to run these fa-cilities don?t really know what they?re do-ing or why they?re doing it (aside from the paycheck).With no real sense of community and little to keep people there, members come and go. As trust and camaraderie evapo-rate, those who remain erect cubicle walls. There is very little in the way of communi-cation (much less collaboration) in the space.3. Unstable economy/stable community. Despite the ongoing recession, fierce loy-alty and tight networking bonds? among duct business. One solution, co-working, may offer some options to improve work-ing lives and productivity.With co-working, independent and free-lance workers voluntarily share an office space if not necessarily a common em-ployer. Emphasizing cooperation over competition, the process enables remote (i.e., otherwise placeless) workers to create a community, a support system, and a strong professional network among them-selves. Co-workers report having found opportunities to collaborate, share skills, and subcontract among each other, and perhaps not surprisingly, many find they are able to be more productive in such an environment.Regardless of the type of work that is performed, the co-working spaces them-selves can be run on either a nonprofit or a for-profit basis; they typically charge a monthly membership fee (generally inex-pensive), and the level of membership can vary depending on how much time one plans to spend at the office.There were more than 700 such spaces around the world as of March 2011, accord-ing to online co-working magazine Deskmag.com. While that number may seem small, it is significant: It represents around twice as many facilities as there were just twelve months prior. The movement is clearly growing fast, but its direction is not entirely certain at this point.To help gain a clearer picture of co-work-ing?s possibilities, a scenario analysis workshop was conducted by Thomas Chermack, the director of Colorado State University?s Scenario Planning Institute, and Angel Kwiatkowski, the founder of Cohere, a co-working space in Fort Collins, Colorado. Projecting several years ahead, the group at Cohere developed a set of near-term scenarios.After going through hundreds of sticky notes, the group managed to pin down what participants agreed were the two most important key variables determining co-working?s future. The first was an inter-nal game changer (will a given co-working group hold together?). The second was an external one (is the economy stable or un-stable?). The group then created four sce-narios based on these two variables: THE FUTURIST July-August 2011 9Angel Kwiatkowski, founder of the co-working space Cohere, discussed the future of the growing co-working movement with THE FUTURIST at the Arthouse in Austin, Texas, during SXSW Interactive 2011. Earlier in the week, she presented the results of a scenario analysis workshop on the subject at Ignite SXSW.AARON M. COHEN
working as it exists today will either take a turn for the worse or disappear altogether. In the end, Kwiatkowski believes co-working will most likely evolve somewhat along the lines described in the third sce-nario. On the one hand, there will be co-working spaces run by really passionate people who love what they?re doing,? she says. They may not believe in growth or have any interest in scaling their activity. However, they will be fully engaged and immersed in the communities they are creating. On the other side of the continuum,? Kwiatkowski notes, you have the ?chain restaurant? [model] of co-working: people franchising and opening multiple spaces and hiring community managers.? With the support of corporations, partnerships, and sponsorships, these franchises may or may not be interconnected, and may ulti-mately be more accountable to their inves-tors than their members. That?s the division I?m already starting to see,? she says. We?re polarizing on op-posite ends.? So while many officeless? workers may increasingly be tempted to join the ranks of co-working in the future, they may want to look for those office spaces that emphasize community over facilities. When it comes to co-working?s future, smaller may be better. ? Aaron M. Cohen Source: Angel Kwiatkoski (interview), Cohere LLC, www.coherecommunity.com. Computers Gaming for Better Decision Making Overconfidence can lead to poor decisions, as gamblers should know. A new Web-based game developed by researchers in the U.K. endeavors to help users quantify their level of confidence to improve decision making. World of Uncertainty uses mathematics, long-term members enable co-working spaces to flourish. Meanwhile, corporate co-working fran-chises begin popping up. Cheaper to join, these offer more lavish amenities? but lack the same sense of community as the smaller, less-profit-oriented spaces. As a re-sult, they tend to attract a different, less tightly knit crowd, and the turnover rate is higher. Ultimately, the smaller model proves more sustainable, while the larger franchises struggle. 4. Unstable economy/unstable commu-nity. Upon arrival, co-workers (if you can even call them that) walk through a turn-stile, slide their credit cards through a plexiglass partition, and then choose an empty stall in which to work in isolation. Everything is pay-per-minute. There is little to no interaction between people. There is also little trust and security (you?d be wise to take your valuables with you if you leave the room). While this scenario may be more satirical than realistic, the point is clear: Without an emphasis on community building, co-10 THE FUTURIST July-August 2011 World Trends & ForecastsThere will be co-working spaces run by really passion-ate people who love what they?re doing.??Angel Kwiatkow ski, Cohere LLCYou know how valuable membership in the World Future Society is, so why not share it with as many people as possible?Save on Sponsored Gift Memberships in the World Future Society, and deliver THE FUTURIST and other valuable benefits to all of your clients, customers, students, and colleagues.Consulting futurists, educators, workshop leaders, authors, and others may sponsor memberships for just $47 each after the first gift of $59?which may be your gift to yourself! And remember, Student Memberships are just $20.Make WFS membership a part of your package of deliverables. Visit www.wfs.org/gifts or call 1-800-989-8274.and others may sponsor memberships for just the first gift of $59?which may be your gift to yourself! And remember, Student Memberships are just $20.Make WFS membership a part of your package of deliverables. Visit www.wfs.org/gifts1-800-989-8274.Deliver the Future!
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