Choose a specific agricultural market. What is your outlook, or general forecast, for this market for the next five to ten years and why? How might a virtu

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 Choose a specific agricultural market. What is your outlook, or general forecast, for this market for the next five to ten years and why? How might a virtuous business leader respond to the outlook in a way that is unique to VBM? Critique one other student's outlook.

  1. After you answer the questions on your own, find a generative artificial intelligence program online and input this query, "What is the outlook for the [market chosen] market for the next five to ten years and why? How might a virtuous business leader respond to this outlook?"
  2. Some of the better known AI platforms are Viso Suite, ChatGPT, Jupyter Notebooks, and Google Cloud AI. Or you could submit your own Google search for an alternative AI platform.
    1. How to cite AI(new tab) with The American Psychological Association
      McAdoo, T. (2024, February 23). How to cite ChatGPT. APA Style Blog. https://apastyle.apa.org/blog/how-to-cite-chatgpt.
    2. How to cite AI(new tab) with Purdue University
      Purdue University Libraries and School of Information Studies. (nd). How to Cite AI-Generated Content. LibGuide. https://guides.lib.purdue.edu/c.php?g=1371380&p=10135074.
  3. Scan how the AI's response is similar or different from your own response. Were you surprised by anything in the AI generated response?

Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics

2020-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2021

December 9, 2020

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2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast

Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2024, September 5). Farm Sector Income & Finances: Farm Sector Income Forecast.

After reaching record highs in 2022, farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2024 but at a slower rate than it fell in 2023. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $182.0 billion in calendar year 2022 in nominal dollars. After decreasing by $35.6 billion (19.5 percent) from 2022 to $146.5 billion in 2023, net farm income in 2024 is forecast to decrease $6.5 billion (4.4 percent) to $140.0 billion. Net cash farm income reached $210.1 billion in 2022. After decreasing by $44.0 billion (20.9 percent) from 2022 to $166.1 billion in 2023, net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $12.0 billion (7.2 percent) to $154.1 billion in 2024.

In inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) from 2023 to 2024, and net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) compared with the previous year. If realized, both measures in 2024 would remain above their 2004–23 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars).

See a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2017–2024F, or see all data tables on farm income and wealth statistics.

A line chart shows U.S. net farm income and net cash farm income in inflation-adjusted dollars, for the years 2004 through a forecast for 2024F. Chart data

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Note: In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are generally discussed in nominal dollars, although cases are noted where the change is reversed using inflation-adjusted dollars.

Summary Findings

  • Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $9.8 billion (1.9 percent) from 2023 to $516.5 billion in 2024 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $27.7 billion (10.0 percent) from 2023 levels to $249.0 billion following lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Conversely, total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $17.8 billion (7.1 percent) to $267.4 billion in 2024. Receipts for eggs, cattle/calves, milk, and broilers are forecast to rise relative to 2023.
  • Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $10.4 billion in 2024, a $1.8 billion (15.1 percent) decrease from 2023. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid directly to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC). This decline is largely because of lower Dairy Margin Coverage Program payments and supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers in 2024 compared with 2023.
  • Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to decrease by $4.4 billion (1.0 percent) from 2023 to $457.5 billion in 2024. Feed, fertilizer (including lime and soil conditioners), and pesticide expenses are expected to see the largest declines in 2024 while livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest dollar increase relative to 2023.
  • Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 5.3 percent ($186.1 billion) from 2023 to $3.68 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 5.2 percent ($207.9 billion) to $4.22 trillion in 2024 following expected increases in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 4.2 percent ($21.8 billion) to $540.8 billion in 2024. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to improve modestly from 12.93 percent in 2023 to 12.81 percent in 2024. Working capital is forecast to fall 4.2 percent in 2024 relative to 2023.

Total Cash Receipts Forecast To Decline for Second Straight Year in 2024

Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $23.3 billion (4.3 percent) from 2023 to $516.5 billion in 2024. Crop cash receipts are projected to decline $34.7 billion (12.2 percent) during the year, while animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to increase by $11.4 billion (4.5 percent).

A line chart with three lines shows U.S. farm sector cash receipts for crops, animals and products, and all commodities for the time period 1970 to 2024F. Chart data

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Crop Receipts Projected To Fall in 2024

Crop cash receipts are forecast at $249.0 billion in 2024, a decrease of $27.7 billion (10.0 percent) from 2023 in nominal ter

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