View the Financial Statements. Students can review historical profit and loss (P&L) records to develop or describe the seasonality over the year. 2. Why do VCLAs revenue spikes not always o
1. View the Financial Statements.
Students can review historical profit and loss (P&L) records to develop or describe the seasonality over the year.
2. Why do VCLA’s revenue spikes not always occur at the same time as maximum room demand?
Students should understand the difference in timing between when the hotel collects the assessment and when the city actually deposits it in the VCLA’s account.
Room demand is an example of a good indicator of when the hotel collects the income.
3. What is the average historical growth rate of VCLA revenue?
Review the Forecast. The average historical growth rate is ?. However, growth since the inception of the operation is not sustainable. What should they do?
4. What would the sales growth rate be in an economic decline or upturn?
Review Scenarios. Analyse the four scenarios for growth rate and marketing spending adjustment.
5. What financial and economic assumptions must be considered to develop the forecast?
Review room supply may impact VCLA revenue and GDP data.
Menu
| Forecasting tourism tax receipts: the case of Ventura County Lodging Association | ||
| Developed by: | Chia-Li Chien, PhD, CFP®, PMP® John F Thiel, CFP®, MBA Stefan W Cosentino, Ph.D. | |
| Version: | 2020.3 | 3/18/20 |
| Tabs in This File: | Description | |
| FinancialStatements | VCLA Financial Statements from 2013 to 2017 | |
| Benchmark | STR Summary Benchmark from 2012 to 2019 | |
| RevenueBenchmark | Revenue Benchmark | |
| DemandBenchmark | Demand Benchmark | |
| Demand_Re_Bench | Demand Relative to Benchmark | |
| Revenu_Re_Bench | Revenue Relative to Benchmark |
FinancialStatements
| Historical Analysis | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Menu | |||
| Assumptions | |||||||||
| Information were obtained from Tax Returns from 2013 through 2017 | |||||||||
| IRS publication 598 (Rev. February 2019) Tax on Unrelated Business Income (UBI or UBTI) have no cap & exclusions of interestes, dividends, etc. | |||||||||
| Therefore, tax-exempt status not jeopardized: : https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p598.pdf | |||||||||
| (Jul 1 – June 30) Fiscal year | |||||||||
| Income Statement | |||||||||
| Program Service Revenue | 1,571,211 | 1,938,969 | 2,538,303 | 2,900,151 | 2,923,280 | ||||
| Total Expenses | 1,605,842 | 1,635,219 | 2,230,334 | 2,447,184 | 2,474,605 | ||||
| Gross Profit | (34,631) | 303,750 | 307,969 | 452,967 | 448,675 | ||||
| Balance Sheet | |||||||||
| Assets | |||||||||
| Cash – non interest bearing | 449,213 | 754,953 | 1,067,884 | 1,522,646 | 1,977,413 | ||||
| Total Current Asstes | 449,213 | 754,953 | 1,067,884 | 1,522,646 | 1,977,413 | ||||
| Non-Current Assets | |||||||||
| Land, buildings, & Equipment | 5,948 | 6,855 | 6,855 | 6,855 | 6,855 | ||||
| Less: accumulated depreciation | 740 | 2,312 | 3,974 | 4,841 | 5,320 | ||||
| Land, buildings, & Equipment, net | 5,208 | 4,543 | 2,881 | 2,014 | 1,535 | ||||
| Other assets (due from credit card) | 2,346 | 1,021 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | ||||
| Total Assets | 456,767 | 760,517 | 1,070,765 | 1,524,660 | 1,978,948 | ||||
| Liabilities & Net Assets | |||||||||
| Other Liabilities (credit card payable) | – 0 | – 0 | 2,279 | 3,207 | 8,820 | ||||
| Total Liabilities | – 0 | – 0 | 2,279 | 3,207 | 8,820 | ||||
| Net Assets | 456,767 | 760,517 | 1,068,486 | 1,521,453 | 1,970,128 | ||||
| Expenses Claimed on Tax Returns | |||||||||
| Expenses | |||||||||
| Mangement | 369,510 | 372,555 | 246,333 | 180,560 | |||||
| Legal | 4,300 | 5,700 | 9,400 | 27,475 | |||||
| Accounting | 7,639 | 11,452 | 18,958 | 23,911 | |||||
| Other Fees & Services Expenses | 37,610 | 4,098 | 3,500 | 246,506 | |||||
| Office Expenses | 9,894 | 15,320 | 7,667 | 11,357 | |||||
| Information Technology | 7,337 | 2,169 | 5,161 | 7,421 | |||||
| Occupancy (rent) | 10,970 | 15,074 | 18,133 | 17,124 | |||||
| Travel | 15,965 | 15,426 | 17,248 | 12,287 | |||||
| Payments for travel or entertainment for any federal, state, or local public officials | – 0 | – 0 | 635 | ||||||
| Confferences, conventions, & meetings | – 0 | 10,068 | 3,430 | – 0 | |||||
| Depreciation, depletion, & amortization | 1,572 | 1,662 | 867 | 479 | |||||
| Insurance | 4,689 | 5,775 | 6,481 | 5,084 | |||||
| Marketing & Sales Promotion | 1,132,833 | 1,732,275 | 2,072,005 | 1,897,613 | |||||
| Collection Fees | 19,390 | 25,383 | 29,002 | 29,233 | |||||
| Dues & Subscriptions | 5,442 | 6,120 | 4,277 | 7,292 | |||||
| Telephone | 4,533 | 5,400 | 4,245 | 7,355 | |||||
| All other expenses | 3,535 | 1,857 | 477 | 273 | |||||
| Total Functional Expenses (Federal) | 1,635,219 | 2,230,334 | 2,447,184 | 2,474,605 | |||||
| Total Functional Expenses (State) separate lines for rents & depreciation | 1,622,677 | 2,213,598 | 2,428,184 | 2,457,002 | |||||
| straight line | straight line | MACRS | MACRS | ||||||
| 502,386 | 498,059 | 375,179 | 576,992 | ||||||
Benchmark
| Source: 1084466_Ventura CA Area Se spreadsheet | |||||
| Demand By Measure Average Monthly | Revenue By Measure Average Monthly | % Demand by Measure (change) | % Revenue by Measure (change) | ||
| 2012 | 96,050 | 9,126,951 | 2.1 | 4.7 | |
| 2013 | 97,896 | 9,556,567 | 6.0 | 13.1 | |
| 2014 | 103,543 | 10,782,144 | 3.5 | 11.3 | |
| 2015 | 106,887 | 11,981,718 | 4.2 | 12.3 | |
| 2016 | 111,209 | 13,405,411 | (0.9) | 1.8 | |
| 2017 | 109,689 | 13,492,306 | (2.3) | 2.3 | |
| 2018 | 106,725 | 13,674,461 | (4.8) | (2.2) | |
| 2019 | 100,073 | 12,151,451 | 2.1 | 7.6 | |
| Source: Smith Travel Research (2019). Trend Report – Ventura, CA Area Selected Properties. Hendersonville, TN. |
BenchmarkAnalysis
| Source: Smith Travel Research Trend Report for VCLA area | Menu | ||||||||||||
| Demand By Measure | |||||||||||||
| Demand | |||||||||||||
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | ||
| 2012 | 77,849 | 84,053 | 97,367 | 93,468 | 98,524 | 108,043 | 120,135 | 121,447 | 98,727 | 96,592 | 80,899 | 75,499 | |
| 2013 | 81,776 | 84,414 | 91,023 | 93,698 | 97,235 | 112,371 | 123,831 | 124,245 | 101,579 | 96,350 | 85,022 | 83,208 | |
| 2014 | 89,171 | 91,846 | 107,061 | 105,211 | 104,892 | 115,749 | 128,478 | 124,746 | 101,660 | 103,815 | 87,481 | 82,409 | |
| 2015 | 89,031 | 96,559 | 111,130 | 103,495 | 108,386 | 119,865 | 125,581 | 126,584 | 109,416 | 109,374 | 91,667 | 91,553 | |
| 2016 | 94,194 | 105,568 | 118,266 | 118,818 | 111,977 | 120,862 | 130,629 | 125,916 | 109,765 | 110,991 | 96,740 | 90,782 | |
| 2017 | 90,974 | 97,744 | 116,987 | 112,152 | 107,653 | 116,834 | 124,859 | 118,693 | 108,602 | 109,797 | 98,639 | 113,330 | |
| 2018 | 101,780 | 99,089 | 113,684 | 111,247 | 103,547 | 109,348 | 117,550 | 115,989 | 101,713 | 105,217 | 105,598 | 95,938 | |
| 2019 | 89,281 | 95,190 | 115,749 | ||||||||||
| Avg | 89,254 | 94,182 | 107,931 | 105,441 | 104,602 | 114,725 | 124,438 | 122,517 | 104,495 | 104,591 | 92,292 | 90,388 | |
| Revenue By Measure | |||||||||||||
| Revenue ($) | |||||||||||||
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | ||
| 2012 | 6,628,884 | 7,472,446 | 8,828,294 | 8,546,803 | 9,285,467 | 10,938,871 | 12,645,502 | 12,950,960 | 9,582,956 | 9,049,071 | 7,237,863 | 6,356,295 | |
| 2013 | 7,135,129 | 7,678,286 | 8,286,923 | 8,834,320 | 9,287,773 | 11,752,825 | 13,743,359 | 13,834,469 | 9,935,761 | 9,196,598 | 7,785,191 | 7,208,171 | |
| 2014 | 8,117,133 | 8,647,304 | 10,314,763 | 10,357,347 | 10,780,653 | 12,934,085 | 15,272,770 | 15,186,160 | 10,685,726 | 10,751,336 |
