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August 17, 2022

What is the probability that exactly N = 3 number of destructive earthquakes will occur in the next 6 centuries?

2) Let us assume then that destructive earthquakes can satisfy the three assumptions for a Poisson process. Suppose these assumptions are true for a particular seismically active region, with destructive earthquakes occurring at a rate of say, ? = 1⁄2 per century. It might not be earthquakes we are talking about. It could equally well be the number of accidents occurring at UCL per week.

(a) What is the probability that exactly N = 3 number of destructive earthquakes will occur in the next 6 centuries?

(b) What is the mean number of earthquakes that should occur in this time and what is the variance?

(c) What is the probability of at least 4 earthquakes?

(d) What is the probability of no earthquakes?

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