Violent Non State Actors and Terrorism

Introduction

There are some issues in international relations that affect all states. When we talk about the system level of analysis, these are the transnational issues; they cross all nations. These problems cannot be solved by one state because by their very nature, they cross borders, so one states solution or decision or law affects all states. Terrorism is one of these issues. 

Although there is significant debate over the definition of terrorism, and even within the US government, different agencies and offices have different definitions, we can agree on a few specific elements: violence, fear, politics, and change.  

Typically, terrorists seek to instill fear among a general population in order to encourage them to agitate with their government to change some policy that the terrorist wants. That’s the point.

Terrorism — the tactic — is an intervening variable in the political struggle. Fear is also an intervening variable. It’s the means to the political end. Terrorism — in the traditional sense — is a tool of the politically weak. The actor who has no other means to affect the political change he wants will try to get others to beg the government to change out of fear.

Wave Theory

The terrorist is typically a non-state actor, and they typically target noncombatants. Is that always the case? No, these things are always changing; the common elements of violence, fear, politics, and change remain. According to one of the most cited terror scholars, modern terrorism is about 125 years old, and the appearance of this tactic follows cycles of expansion and contraction. Each of the first three waves lasted about a generation (Rapaport 2004).

Anarchist Wave: (1870s to 1914) Terror is used to destroy convention and liberate humanity; terrorism is a strategy, used to reveal and overthrow the politically vulnerable. The tactic was typically assassinations (Rapaport 2004).

Anti-Colonial Wave: (1914 to 1960s) Terror is used to liberate people from empires; they use a new label (freedom fighters). Tactic was typically to target police and military; terrorism is just one part of a more comprehensive rebellion. They often used guerrilla (hit and run) tactics (Rapaport 2004).

New Left Wave: (1960s to 1980s) Terrorists seek radical and nationalist objectives though theatrical targets, like: hostages from plane hijackings; kidnappings; assassinations to punish, not just to t take out he person in public office. They also seek to target the person responsible for some grievance. This was an international wave now; one third of all attacks in this wave involved American targets, and states start to sponsor terrorism to raise their profile and get their political goals in the system level of analysis (Rapaport 2004).

Religious Wave: (1990s to now) Religion becomes the justification and organization for the terror groups. They return to an old tactic: assassinations but use a new means: suicide bombing. The number of terrorist groups overall decreased, but they are mostly Islamic, and they add a new twist to the classic definition of terrorism: the objective is to DESTROY America, not provoke a political change (Rapaport 2004).

In 2001 the Global War on Terrorism was declared by President Bush as a response to the 9/11 attack by al Qaeda on the United States. He said: “Our enemy is a radical network of terrorists and every government that supports them (Bush 2001, 65). The attack of 9/11 turned a local or regional tactic into a global one. After 9/11, on September 12, the 19 ambassadors of the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) declared that the attack on the United States was an attack on all of the member nations. Similarly, the United Nations Security Council called on all states to prosecute terrorists. Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, condemned the attacks as did Russian President Vladimir Putin (Brown 2001). The fight against terrorism became a global fight after 9/11.

Global Terrorism     

What makes something terrorism? Is it the tactic or the objective? When using fear to as an intervening variable, the key distinctive factors are the means of communication and the target. Remember, another word for terrorism is the propaganda of the deed (Fleming 1980). Without the propaganda, its not terrorism. If its not publicized around the world, then its not terrorism. The target for terrorism is typically non-combatants. Terrorists need to cause fear among the public that is watching them. It is the propaganda around the horror of what the terrorist has done that elicits the fear. The terrorist needs the publicity. Why? To encourage the public to demand that the government make a political change (or a revolution) to get the terrorism to stop. 

Sometimes terrorists are confused with criminals or anarchists because all three actors want some kind of revolution. But crime is about breaking the law for material gain, and anarchists want to cause chaos. So, even if terrorists turn to crime to support themselves or cause chaos because of their terrorist tactics, these three actors are not the same. 

Is terrorism war? According to the Correlates of War (COW) project, war is: 1. sustained combat; 2. organized armed forces on both sides; 3. minimum of 1,000 battle related fatalities within a 12 month period (Small and Singer 1982). Thats a very specific definition of war, but Clausewitz tells us that war is an act of violence designed to compel our opponent to fulfill our will (Clausewitz 1832); thus, the COW definition fits with the definition from hundreds of years before. But even if war must be violent, Clausewitz also reminds us that it is not one single event; war will be part of a timeline that includes other events, some of which can be terroristic. So, war is a rational decision to achieve a specific (often territorial) goal. War is also a legitimate instrument of state policy. The official state sponsors of terrorism according to the State Department are Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Syria, and Sudan (US Department of State 2015). Of those, not all of them are failed or failing, so what causes did they have? Is it revolution? Is it political change? A state can sponsor terrorism to achieve a political goal short of war.

But were not talking about states here; we are talking about terrorists. Terrorists are generally non-state actors although some states do sponsor terrorism. And some terrorists support states. Here are a few examples of well-known terror groups (not a complete list).

Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the Troubles

The Irish Republican Army was founded in 1919; its goal was to get the British out of Ireland.  The members fought for Irish independence in the Irish Civil War, and after the state of Ireland was established as separate from the UK in 1922, the IRA continued to fight against the UK presence in Northern Ireland. Periodic conflicts broke out until it all came to a head in the 1960s when The Troubles started. Beginning in 1935 the Orange Order decided to reroute their annual parade through a predominantly Catholic area of Northern Ireland. But it was relatively peaceful because people accepted the discrimination of the government until rioting in 1969 when another Protestant group tried to parade through a predominantly Catholic area. At that point the British Army was invited to enforce a curfew, and they never left. Then on January 30, 1972 otherwise known as Bloody Sunday the British killed 28 unarmed civilian Catholics during a peaceful protest/parade by the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association. After that, the troubles escalated until there were multiple major terror groups: IRA, UVF (Ulster Volunteer Force), and UDA (Ulster Defense Association). 

Eventually, the Good Friday Agreements in 1998 ended The Troubles. Over the course of these terror attacks 3,500 people, mostly civilians, died in about 30 years; these were mostly bomb and gun attacks on the British army and on each other (civilians), mostly in wealthy areas or tourist areas. About 2,000 people were arrested over the course of the war (McKittrick and McVea 2002).

Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)

The PLO was founded in 1964; its goal was to liberate Palestine from Israel. It conducted a series of attacks in the 1970s; the most famous was the Munich Olympics in 1972 when the Black September faction (of the PLO) kidnapped and then killed 11 members of the Israeli Olympic team. Over the course of 30 years, the PLO killed almost 100 people and wounded just about 100 in bombings, kidnappings, and assassinations. In 1993, the PLO recognized Israels right to exist and became a political party the Palestinian Authority (Baracskay 2011). When they were founded in 1964, they were supposed to be an umbrella group for other Palestinian rights groups, but they eventually broke up because of internal differences. The Palestinian Authority is the self-governing body of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)

The FARC was founded in 1964; its goal was the anti-imperialist overthrow of the Colombian government. The highpoint of the FARC power was in 2007 when they had 18,000 followers in their jungle camps. The guerrilla army agreed to peace terms in 2011 when there was an international outcry against their kidnappings after some hostages died. The 2012-2016 peace talks focused on funding and resources because FARC controlled various mining operations and a big illegal drug trade in their area of the country; but the parties agreed to political settlement and disarmament (Casey 2016). The founders wanted a Marxist government at the helm in Bogata. They called themselves legitimate freedom fighters because their objective was to get more control of the government.

Red Brigades

The Red Brigades were founded in 1967 with the goal to destabilize Italy and rescind its membership in NATO; The Red Brigades used kidnappings, assassinations and sabotage to try to get Italy to turn to Marxism. The Red Brigades kidnapped and murdered former Prime Minister Aldo Moro in 1978. They used guerrilla type tactics to attack Italian police or army or political leaders 50 times between 1974 and 1988 and killed about 50 people.  At their height, they had about 1200 members (Stanford University 2018). With the end of the Cold War, the trend towards proletarian upheavals in Europe have kind of faded away regardless of whether they got what they wanted or not.

Red Army Faction (also known as the Baader Meinhof Gang)

The Red Army Faction was founded in 1970; its overall goal was to delegitimatize the West German government. They felt the need to resist the Federal Republic of Germany feeling that the government was illegitimate, and the US was its imperialistic collaborator. Overall, the group professed a Marxist ideology. Its leaders wanted to get the US out of Europe and change the West German government. How? They tried to use terrorist attacks to trigger the government to overreact and respond with such violence that the public would sympathize with the terrorists and maybe demand political change. In all, they killed about 35 people. There were probably about 20-30 members at any given time (Moghadam 2011). The RAF basically ended with the weakening of communism worldwide when the Soviet Union broke up; the official end was in 1998, but some attacks are still attributed to them.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a Shiite political party funded by Iran and founded in 1982; its original political goal was to force Israel out of Lebanon. It has international financing including Iran and global networks. The group used bombings and guerrilla tactics against the Israeli military in Lebanon. It also attacked Jewish centers in other cities around the world, as it did in Buenos Aires in 1994; 85 people were killed (Johnson 2017). Overall, Hezbollah is a military and political power in the region; it also supported Syria against the civil uprising in the early 21st century.

Lashkar e Taiba

LeT was founded in 1986; its goal is to end Indian rule in Jammu and Kashmir provinces and to promote Islam around Asia. It is the biggest Islamic militant organization in South Asia. They have attacked military and civilian targets in India. Their most famous attack was in 2008 when they targeted hotels, colleges, hospitals, tourist locations, and marketplaces in Mumbai over four days. They killed 164 people (CNN 2017). Lashkar e Taiba has continued to attack military and government targets in and around Northern India.

Al Qaeda 

Al Qaeda (also known as the base) was founded in the 1980s by Osama bin Laden to support Muslims fighting against the Soviet Union during the Afghan War after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Its overall goal is Islamic dominance. After the Soviets left Afghanistan, al Qaeda benefited from the support of the political party, the Taliban, in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden declared a Holy War against the United States and attacked western hotels in Yemen, the World Trade Center (1993), Americans in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the USS Cole before hijacking four commercial airliners on September 11, 2001. The airlines were crashed into New York City, the Pentagon and Pennsylvania. They killed almost 3,000 people that day, and it is the deadliest terror attack in the United States. Osama bin laden killed in Pakistan in 2011; Al Qaeda has between 200 and 1,000 core members as of 2011 and almost 10,000 affiliated members, although the numbers are hard to estimate (Bialik 2011). Although it fell from the center of jihadist causes in the 2000s, Al Qaeda is rebuilding with networks in Africa, India, Russia, Yemen, and Somalia to name a few (Hoffman 2018).

Boko Haram 

Boko Haram (also known as Western education is sinful) was founded in 2002; its goal is an Islamic government in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. They were the worlds deadliest terror group from 2012 to 2015 (Shaban 2017). Theyve killed more than 15,000 in direct attacks and displaced more than one and 1/2 million people. An estimate of 24 and 1/2 million people have been indirectly affected by the insurgents. In 2014, almost 300 girls aged 16 to 18 were kidnapped from a girls school in Nigeria. About 100 girls have been found or freed, but the rest are still with Boko Haram fighters (Iyekekpolo 2016). It started as a non-violent group that expressed hatred of the West, but it expanded with the leadership of Mohammed Yusuf in 2002. Boko Haram has also pledged allegiance to al Qaeda and Islamic State, solidifying its violent reputation.

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also known as ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, or Islamic State) started in 2004 as an al Qaeda splinter; while al Qaeda was very tied to its leader, Osama bin Laden, ISIS focused on networks of lone or small groups of terrorists thus considering itself the leader of an Islamic Caliphate from Afghanistan to Nigeria. ISIS grew out of what was al-Qaeda in Iraq. It was formed by Sunni militants after the Second Iraq War in 2003. It was a major fighting force in the insurgency against the new Iraqi government. In 2011, the group moved to Syria to take advantage of the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad (a Shiite), so that it had a physical safe haven and weapons. ISIS also gained territory in Iraq when Sunnis were angry at the new Shia-led government. In 2013, the group began to consolidate control of territory in Syria and changed its name to Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. At its highest strength, ISIS captured Mosul in 2014 and then overran large swathes of northern and western Iraq, proclaimed the creation of a physical caliphate, thus becoming known as Islamic State (Irshaid 2015). When ISIS moved into areas controlled by Iraq’s Kurdish minority and killed or enslaved thousands of the endangered Yazidi religious group, the US led a coalition to begin air strikes on ISIS positions in Iraq in August 2014 (Katulis et al. 2015). ISIS has killed at least 60,000 people under its control and in suicide attacks. It has also inspired lone wolf attacks in England (2017) and France (2016). At its height, 10 million people were living in area under ISIS control. As of 2018, the US led coalition has recaptured 98% of the territory ISIS once held in Syria and Iraq (BBC 2018).

Al Shabaab 

Al Shabaab (also known as the guys) was founded in 2006; its goal is to control Somalia and to engage in any enemies of Islam. In 2012 Al Shabaab pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, and in 2016, they were responsible for more than 4,000 deaths. The government has pushed back, but the group does control parts of Somalia (Shaban 2017). They have had more than 10,000 troops.

Jihadism

In Arabic, the word jihad means effort or struggle. It is either an internal struggle for an adherent or an external struggle against unbelievers. In the modern view of jihadism after 9/11, jihadism is the war against Westerners. Jihadists read history and understand the growth of Western liberalism. Their distinctive theological convictions include Muslim invincibility, the rule of Islam, the necessity to refute Western liberalism, and an absolute certainty that martyrdom is desirable. The war against Jihadism is a contest for the human future that will endure for generations (Wiegel 2007, 71).

Jihadist terrorism (between about 2001 and 2011) is well-planned, well-funded, high casualty, and high profile (Rosler 2010). The events on 9/11 were designed to inflict maximum damage to the psychology of its victims and its observers. There are no innocents in this kind of terrorism. When the enemy was identified by the jihadists, there was no distinction between the combatants and non-combatants, and there was no central capital to attack in retaliation. The traditional jihadist terrorist attacks an enemy, and that enemy is the entire West.

In non-traditional jihadist terrorism, there are many locations, many franchises of the terrorist group. It is not hierarchical, not well funded, and not going for high casualty events. The oft labeled lone wolf is radicalized without terror training and funding and carefully planned events. They are ad hoc, amateur, native and small. It looks like jihadism has devolved (Rosler 2010). In this lone wolf terrorism, an individual can become radicalized and seek to attack the enemy in any way possible. These individual attacks reflect theological, cultural questions, and they are determined even if they are not part of a larger group.

Root Causes

There are many causes of terrorism. Perhaps, though, the better way to describe this is preconditions (background factors) that enable the circumstances for terrorism. Indeed, there are long term factors and situational factors as well as more immediate factors (Schmid 2005). Some are structural; some are environmental, and some are personal. In the structural category, weve already talked about the Jihadist conviction that Islam is the one true faith, and it is the obligation of jihadists to use violence to destroy the enemy (Weigel 2007). The strength of this ideological conviction derived from the religion of Islam pushes adherents to the violent tactic of terrorism.  

A non-religious ideology could also substitute for Jihadism and push adherents to violence as well. For example, the Red Brigades and the Red Army Faction used terrorism to gain attention and to cause any kind of anarchy that hurts the enemy: Western liberalism. Similarly, the Animal Liberation Front and the Earth Liberation Front are also responsible for terrorism around the world. Although they are likely to use sabotage to cause material damages rather than suicide bombings or other deadly tactics, adherents can view their beliefs with religious fervor (Jarboe 2002).

In the environmental category, states may be failing and unable to provide jobs, opportunities and other options for young men thus giving the terror groups a ready-made population which it can radicalize, particularly when charismatic leadership and ideology come into the mix (Hofmann 2016). More importantly, though, a strong state that can provide good governance, democracy, rule of law, and social justice is not as likely to witness terrorism because the political process discourages individuals from resorting to violence (Schmid 2005). Keep in mind that many individuals can be in the same circumstances and desire the same political change but not resort to terrorism to get it.  

In the personal category, a psychological need to belong to a group is most often cited as a root cause for radicalism. Randy Borums four stage model starts with an undesirable event or condition that the extremist sees as an injustice. Then the injustice is pinned on a wrongful behavior; in other words, its someone elses fault. The final stage for Borums model identifies the group responsible for the injustice as bad or evil. After this process, the individual is vulnerable to radicalization in which the extreme solution (terrorism) will seem like the logical response (Borum 2003). In this way, terrorism can resemble a cult in which vulnerable individuals can be manipulated by a strong leader.

Tribalism

Writing just after the end of the Cold War, Huntington argued that a rosy, optimistic assessment of a peace-dividend following the end to what we knew as an ideological conflict was all wrong (although he did not write with the intention of throwing cold water on the euphoria ending the Cold War, that was the effect). Huntington argued that the conflicts between civilizations are replacing the ideological conflicts of the Cold War. These civilizations are cultural fault lines that have endured for centuries. In particular, the fault-line between the West and Islam was not only not likely to disappear like the Cold War, it was likely to heat up (Huntington 1993). With this prediction, Huntington became one of the most influential scholars of international relations in the late 20th century.

A civilization is about identity with specific elements of history, language, religion, customs, culture and institutions. It is a shared self-identification, and people are intensely connected through civilization (Huntington 1993). He uses the word tribalism deliberately to emphasize the smallness of the connections even if it is within a very broad civilization. Thus, small conflicts along the fault-line of civilizations have much wider importance and influence.

According to Huntington, the next phase of international relations would be characterized by the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism. When Friedmans globalization 3.0 makes the world smaller, it also makes the world more likely to return to ones roots, or tribe. Those cultural connections are strong and will emerge as powerful ties when the world is (deliberately or not) pulling them apart. The primary conflicts of global politics in the 21st century, according to Huntington, would be conflict between civilizations (Huntington 1993). And now we see the importance of the individual level of analysis even if we argue that the system level is primary. We cant discount the individual level contacts, impressions, and personalities when we determine the future course of something as large as international relations.

Terrorism and the Individual Level of Analysis

Who is affected by terrorism? It is the states that are attacked, but it is the people who suffer. There were less than 2,000 worldwide incidents in 1970. By the early 1990s, that number creeped up to almost 6,000 worldwide incidents. After a decrease in the early 2000s (surprisingly), the number of worldwide terror attacks exceeded 16,000 per year in 2014. The numbers may be slowly decreasing, but they show a significant effect on the worlds vulnerable population with a peak of 43,000 deaths in 2014 (Rosler et al. 2018).

September 11th was the deadliest single terror incident in human history, although it is a relatively low number when compared with other types of death even in 2014 when there were more than 3x the number of casualties worldwide. So, do these casualties work? Do terrorists succeed? Robert Pape argues that they do. Suicide attacks targeted at democracies are particularly effective at influencing policy (Pape 2006). However, Max Abrahms argues that terrorists do not succeed. Terror groups only achieve their political objectives about 7% of the time (Abrahms 2006).

The objectives of terrorism will revolve around politics, fear, or chaos. All of these will make it difficult to live in a country where terrorism is more likely. Iraq, India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Thailand, Philippines, Russia, Colombia, Israel, and Nepal were the top ten most attacked countries from 2001-2008 (Rosler et al. 2018). Because of the increase of Islamist terrorism, the attacks are mostly concentrated in predominantly Muslim countries. The premeditated violence with specific (yet seemingly random) targeting is a mark of the fourth wave of terrorism in Rapaports language and a sign of the 21st Century of violence.

Discussion Questions: Assess the argument that Rapoport’s wave theory misses important variables when categorizing trends in terrorism. How do you define terrorism? Is violence a key description when defining terrorism? Must a terrorist commit violence to be a terrorist?