What does your service (United States Navy) need to do to navigate lawfare threats in the future? -atleast 260 words -attach turn it in report Other source

IN BRIEF

By Brian L. Sittlow May 1, 2020 7:00 am (EST)

What’s at Stake With Rising Competition in the

Arctic?

A changing climate and growing competition for resources is raising tensions

among Arctic nations.

The Arctic evokes images of a harsh environment—snow, glaciers, and a frozen ocean that caps the top of the world. But this relatively

peaceful and largely uninhabitable area is increasingly becoming the focus of international cooperation and competition. Climate change,

globalization, and the return of great-power rivalry is turning the region into a geopolitical hot spot, and Washington should continue to

partner with allies to set and enforce the rules.

What are the Arctic’s boundaries?

The Arctic region is defined by U.S. policy as all

land and ocean north of the Arctic Circle

(approximately 66.5° N latitude) plus the Aleutian

Islands, the Bering Sea, and portions of western

Alaska. Eight nations have territory in the region:

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Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland,

Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United

States (via Alaska).

These countries share many interests, including the need to cooperate on search-and-rescue missions, enforce maritime safety regulations,

and preserve the well-being of indigenous Arctic communities. However, there are growing divisions between Russian and the rest of

the Arctic nations. China’s increasing assertiveness in the region also adds to the tension.

How is the region governed?

There is no single governing body for the Arctic. However, there are several organizations that loosely cooperate. The most successful has

been the Arctic Council, a forum of the eight Arctic nations. The council’s work centers on environmental monitoring, support for

indigenous communities, and emergency response; it does not deal with national security issues. With Russia set to assume the rotating

chair for the 2021–2023 term, analysts will be watching closely for any changes in Russia’s behavior.

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Other institutions, such as the Arctic Coast Guard Forum, North Pacific Coast Guard Forum, and various organizations for indigenous

Arctic peoples, bring together all the Arctic states but also do not address security issues.

Those that do work on security-related topics now

exclude Russia due to the broader isolation of

Moscow resulting from its 2014 annexation of

Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. These

include the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

(NATO), the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable,

and meetings of the Arctic defense chiefs.

What issues threaten Arctic security?

There are many thorny issues at play in the region.

Technological advances in extracting natural resources including fish, rare earth metals, oil, and gas are driving a race for influence in the

Arctic that could spur future conflicts. Furthermore, climate change is shrinking the ice pack, making it easier to access these resources.

Even among allies, there remain minor disagreements over territorial and navigation rights. Another challenge is the expansion of military

bases and deployments, which some Arctic nations see as necessary to protect their resources and logistics networks.

A prime example is the Russian port of Yamal on the Siberian coast, a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2017, Yamal LNG

began shipping across the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and through the Bering Strait to China, resulting in the emergence of a new strategic

international energy corridor. In part to defend the NSR, there has been a rapid increase in military outposts along Russia’s northern coast,

supported by the powerful Russian northern fleet, based near Murmansk.

An ice-class tanker, the Christophe de Margerie, awaits its shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Russian Arctic port of Sabetta. Olesya Astakhova/Reuters

Complicating the situation are Russia’s demands for restrictive measures along the shipping route, including that all foreign warships

provide advance notice and get Russian approval prior to transit. Such measures limit international access to this sea lane and challenge

freedom-of-navigation rules defined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

What are China’s aspirations in the Arctic?

The Chinese government promulgated its vision for a new Arctic policy in January 2018. It plainly states Beijing’s ambitions on Arctic

matters. Though it makes no territorial claims there, China considers itself a “near-Arctic state” with the right to conduct scientific

research, pursue economic resources, and play an active role in governance in the region.

China sees the Arctic as part of its worldwide infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative, and refers to its presence there as the

“Polar Silk Road.” Its scientists play a large role in the Arctic research station on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen, it has developed the

capacity to build icebreaking ships, and it conducts Arctic patrols with its expanding fleet. China’s increasingly active role in the region

could heighten great-power rivalry with the United States and raise tensions with other Arctic nations.

How is the United States reacting to these developments?

The largest drivers of U.S. interest in the Arctic center on economic development, especially of petroleum industries, the rise of great-

power competitors China and Russia, and partnering with its allies to preserve rules–based international norms.

From a security perspective, the Russian military threat has for years been the driving force behind the joint U.S.-Canada North American

Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), which seeks to protect the air and sea routes to North America. The polar route is the most direct

for Russian weapon systems, and monitoring the Arctic remains a priority for NORAD.

Additionally, the United States has long emphasized preserving freedom of navigation, a major concern in the Arctic. NATO and its

democratic allies have stepped up exercises in the Arctic to deepen cooperation in that area. And initiatives such as the U.S. Coast Guard

Polar Security Cutter program are investing in crucial equipment, such as heavy icebreaker ships, that will help improve U.S. Arctic

capability at a time when it is more necessary than ever.

Captain Brian L. Sittlow is a naval officer specializing in submarines and a military fellow at CFR. The opinions expressed in this article are solely

those of the author and do not reflect any official policy of CFR or the U.S. government.

Creative Commons: Some rights reserved.

USCG ARCTIC STR ATEGIC OU TLO OK 01

U N I T E D STAT E S C OA ST G UA R D O O O O

ARCTIC STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

A P R I L 2 0 1 9 W A S H I N G T O N , D . C .

O O O O

T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s C o a s t G u a r d ’ s

V i s i o n f o r t h e A r c t i c R e g i o n

O O O O

USCG ARCTIC STR ATEGIC OU TLO OK 1

I. Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

II. Today’s Realities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

III. The United States Coast Guard in the Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

IV. Ensuring Long-Term Success. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

V. Line of Effort 1: Enhance Capability to Operate Effectively in a Dynamic Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

VI. Line of Effort 2: Strengthen the Rules-Based Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

VII. Line of Effort 3: Innovate and Adapt to Promote Resilience and Prosperity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

VIII. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Table of Contents

2 USCG ARCTIC STR ATEGIC OU TLOOK

T H E C O M M A N D A N T o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s C o a s t G u a r d

For over 150 years, Americans have counted on the U.S. Coast Guard to proudly uphold American sovereignty, provide national security, and promote economic prosperity in the Arctic. Our important work is even more relevant as the northern approach to North America gains geo- strategic prominence. Access to the Arctic’s vast energy, mineral, fisheries, and other commercial resources is growing at precisely the same time that global interests in these assets intensifies. The Nation’s security demands in the region are both pressing and enduring. What was previously a region of energy interest and challenge is now an increasingly competitive domain.

As the Nation’s primary maritime presence in the polar regions, the Coast Guard advances our national interests through a unique blend of polar operational capability, regulatory authority, and international leadership across the full spectrum of maritime governance. The Coast Guard will continue to work with our allies and partners on the mutual goal of ensuring a safe, secure, and cooperative Arctic, even as our aspiring near-peer competitors maneuver for strategic advantage in the area. However, competition need not lead to conflict. The Coast Guard thrives in situations that require nuanced responses to complex issues. Our persistent presence–on the water, in communities, or in international forums–absolutely equals influence.

This Arctic Strategic Outlook reaffirms our commitment to American leadership in the region through partnership, unity of effort, and continuous innovation. This document establishes three lines of effort crucial to achieving long-term success: (1) Enhance capability to operate effectively in a dynamic Arctic domain, (2) Strengthen the rules-based order, and (3) Innovate and adapt to promote resilience and prosperity.

We understand the significant investment required to secure the Arctic, and we appreciate and embrace the trust the American people have placed in the U.S. Coast Guard. We will remain vigilant in protecting our national interests in the polar regions to forestall the unchecked influence of competitors.

Semper Paratus. Admiral Karl L. Schultz

USCG ARCTIC STR ATEGIC OU TLOOK 3

A r c t i c R e g i o n

S TAT I S T I C S T he United States is an Arctic Nation, and as America’s maritime presence the Coast

Guard maintains an enduring responsibility for the national security and economic prosperity of the Arctic.

6 Number of Chinese Arctic expeditions. While not an

Arctic nation, China has made the Arctic a strategic priority,

declaring themselves a “Near-Arctic State.”

1,000,000 Square miles of

U.S. Territorial Waters and Exclusive Economic

Zone in the Arctic.

$3 Billion Economic impact of Alaska’s Arctic seafood industry.

90 Billion Barrels of undiscovered

oil reserves in the Arctic and an estimated 30 percent

of the world’s undiscovered natural gas.

$1 Trillion Value of the Arctic’s rare

earth minerals, such as zinc, nickel, and lead.

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1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1

0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0

14 Number of Russian icebreakers

built. Russia continues to invest heavily in military

facilities, with 6 bases built since 2013.

10 million Tons of goods including gas, oil,

grain, and coal, which transited the Northern Sea Route in 2017.

40 percent of vessels carrying these goods originated from or were

going to a Chinese port.

1,700 People onboard CRYSTAL

SERENITY in 2016, the first large capacity cruise ship to transit the Northwest Passage.

8 Member states of the Arctic

Coast Guard Forum, which the U.S. formed in 2015 alongside

Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway,

Russia, and Sweden.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 2013 ARCTIC STRATEGY?

ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE A MER ICAN ARCTIC

4 U S C G A R C T I C ST R AT E G I C O U T L O O K

I. Executive Summary The United States is an Arctic Nation, and the United States Coast Guard has served as the lead federal agency for homeland security, safety, and environmental stewardship in the Arctic region for over 150 years. Since Revenue Cutters first sailed to Alaska in 1867 to establish U.S. sovereignty, the Service’s role has expanded, including representing American interests as a leader in the international bodies governing navigation, search and rescue, vessel safety, fisheries enforcement, and pollution response across the entire Arctic. As the region continues to open and strategic competition drives more actors to look to the Arctic for economic and geopolitical advantages, the demand for Coast Guard leadership and presence will continue to grow.

Since the release of the Coast Guard Arctic Strategy in 2013, the resurgence of nation-state competition has coincided with dramatic changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, which has elevated the region’s prominence as a strategically competitive space. America’s two nearest-peer powers, Russia and China, have both declared the region a national priority and made corresponding investments in capability and capacity to expand their influence in the region. Russia and China’s persistent challenges to the rules-based international order around the globe cause concern of similar infringement to the continued peaceful stability of the Arctic region. As the only U.S. Service that combines both military and civil authorities, the Coast Guard is uniquely suited to address the interjurisdictional challenges of today’s strategic environment by modeling acceptable behavior, building regional capacity, and strengthening organizations that foster transparency and good governance across the Arctic.

The Arctic’s role in geostrategic competition is growing, in large part because reductions in permanent sea ice have exposed coastal borders and facilitated increased human and economic activity. The warming of the Arctic has led to longer and larger windows of reduced ice conditions. From 2006 to 2018, satellite imagery observed the 12 lowest Arctic ice extents on record.1 This has led to greater access through Arctic shipping routes. While the near-term future of these routes is uncertain, a polar route has the potential to reduce transit times of traditional shipping routes by up to two weeks. Russia’s establishment of a Northern Sea Route Administration, along with the use of high ice-class Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers built specifically to export natural gas from its Yamal LNG facility, have contributed significantly to the increase in commercial shipping traffic in the Arctic. In addition, opportunities for potential resource extraction and expanding Arctic tourism offer new prospects for some of the Nation’s most isolated communities and broader benefits to America. However, changing terrain and subsistence food patterns, as well as the impacts of increasingly frequent and intense winter storms, continue to challenge the communities and increase risk in the maritime domain.

1 2018 Arctic Report Card, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/ Report-Card-2018

U S C G A R C T I C S T R AT E G I C O U T L O O K 5

The Coast Guard will adhere to the following principles as it manages these risks and seizes the opportunities created by these changes:

Partnership. The Arctic is an exceptional place that demands collaboration across national boundaries. The Coast Guard will partner with the Arctic Nations, as well as partners and allies with Arctic interests, to contribute to keeping the Arctic a conflict-free region. The Service will continue to dedicate resources to forums, such as the Arctic Council, and to combined operations and exercises to safeguard and secure the Arctic domain.

The unique and valuable relationship the Coast Guard has established with tribal entities builds mutual trust and improves mission capacity and readiness. We will continue to incorporate lessons-learned from engagements with Alaska Native communities, as well as industry and other Arctic residents, in the development and implementation of policy and strategy.

Unity of Effort. The Coast Guard will advance the Nation’s strategic goals and priorities in the Arctic and exercise leadership across the Arctic community of federal, state, and local agencies. As a military Service, the Coast Guard will strengthen interoperability with the Department of Defense and complement the capabilities of the other military services to support the National Security Strategy and the National Military Strategy.

6 U S C G A R C T I C ST R AT E G I C O U T L O O K

A Culture of Continuous Innovation. The Coast Guard cannot meet the challenges of tomorrow’s Arctic with today’s paradigms. Rapid technological advancements within the maritime industry, combined with robust investments by strategic competitors, have raised the stakes. The Service must take this opportunity to leverage transformative technology and lead the employment of innovative policies to solve complex problems.

While the strategic context has changed, Coast Guard missions in the Arctic are enduring. The Coast Guard will protect the Nation’s vital interests by upholding the rules-based order in the maritime domain while cooperating to reduce conflict and risk. We will help safeguard the Nation’s Arctic communities, environment, and economy. The Service will pursue these ends through three complementary lines of effort:

Line of Effort 1: Enhance Capability to Operate Effectively in a Dynamic Arctic In order to prosecute its missions in the Arctic, the Coast Guard must fully understand and operate freely in this vast and unforgiving environment. Effective capability requires sufficient heavy icebreaking vessels, reliable high-latitude communications, and comprehensive Maritime Domain Awareness. In order to respond to crises in the Arctic, our Nation must also muster adequate personnel, aviation, and logistics resources in the region. The Coast Guard is the sole provider and operator of the U.S. polar capable fleet but currently does not have the capability or capacity to assure access in the high latitudes. Closing the gap requires persistent investment in capabilities and capacity for polar operations, including the Polar Security Cutter. The Coast Guard will pursue this line of effort through three sub-objectives.

• Fill Gaps in the Coast Guard’s Arctic Operational Capability and Capacity • Establish Persistent Awareness and Understanding of the Arctic Domain • Close the Critical Communications Gap in the Arctic

Line of Effort 2: Strengthen the Rules-Based Order Actions by strategic competitors will challenge the long-standing norms that have made the Arctic an area of peace and low tension. The institutions contributing to a conflict-free Arctic will face new challenges requiring active and committed American leadership. The Coast Guard is uniquely positioned to provide this leadership in the maritime domain. The Coast Guard is dedicated to strengthening institutions–such as the Arctic Council, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum (ACGF), and the International Maritime Organization (IMO)–and partnerships which reinforce the rules-based order and foster transparency.

Rules and norms endure when nations demonstrate a commitment to upholding them. Working closely with allies and partners, the Coast Guard will deter threats to international maritime norms and America’s national interests by conducting operations and exercises along the full spectrum of competition. Working in partnership with the Department of Defense, the Coast Guard will continue to support to the Nation’s d

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