Theories of Decision-making
How much influence do individual leaders have on foreign policy decision-making? How can we measure this influence? Using your knowledge of models of decision-making explain and expand on the influence of individuals in foreign policy.
Argument : individual leaders have significant influence on foreign policy decisionmaking especially in the unitary models of Rational Actor Model and Psychological Model on rational choices and cognitive perception by leaders; and also on non-unitary models of Organization Decision Making and Bureaucratic Politics on leveraging Standard Operating Procedures and impacting negotiating process.
– RAM : risk evaluation and maximization of utility influence decision-making (rational and unitary)
– Psychological : their perception to the world and their status in the position affect decision-making. (non-rational and unitary)
– ODM : within the organization impact standard operation procedures to influence decision-making. (rational and non-unitary)
– BP : influence bureaucratic bargaining process to leverage to decision-making. (non-rational and non-unitary)
Section II: The Practice of Decision-making : 2) Amy Zegart argues that errors are a feature – and not a bug – of organizational decision-making. Is she correct? Use examples from the case studies to analyze the contribution of organizations to foreign policy decision-making. Can leaders avoid pitfalls? Are they cursed to suffer from organizational mismanagement of foreign policy? OR is Zegart incorrect – organizations improve decision-making?
● Incorrect, the organizations help make foreign policy decisionmaking as long as the SOPs has been built up and 4 streams of decisionmaking communicated well.
– 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself?? – Fail to match the situation with the SOPs, not the failure of SOPs itself.
– 911 is a result of failed bureaucratic bargaining not organization failure. – 911 failure results from problems and participant failure thus cause the solutions and
choice opportunities failure in decisionmaking
Two cases comparison: – Context different: 911 extreme case, lack of experience – 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself
– Gulf war cases have successful previous US oversea intervention experience
Essay 2 structure : Introduction: 1 page
– Argument: Incorrect, the organizations help make foreign policy decisionmaking as long as the SOPs has been built up and 4 streams of decisionmaking communicated well.
Body paragraph 1: 2 pages – Organization help in foreign policy decisionmaking and decrease the individual’s
mismanagement risks. – How ODM model works
– Pattern-matching SOPs – 4 streams: Problem, solutions, participants and choice opportunities (a
process of coordination) – How organization helps leader minimize mistakes
Body paragraph 2: 1 ½ pages – Analyze the case of one hundred hour of war (ODM model successful case)
– Context – Individual actors in organizations – Potential options in responding to Iraq invasion – Good communication of the 4 streams – SOPs (has previous oversea intervention experience, and have coordinated goal
causes good communication)
Body paragraph 3: 1 ½ pages – Analyze the case of 911 attack (ODM model failure case)
– Context – Individual actors in organizations – Lack of experience even with the warning – Some negative sides of organization (could refer to the class notes) – Did not have previous SOPs due to new form of terror attack
Body paragraph 4: Compare two cases: 1 ½ pages – Why the case of gulf war is successful and why 911 attack failed to defend
– Relates to the ODM model – Context different: 911 extreme case, lack of experience. 100 hour war has
coordinated goal and have previous oversea intervention SOPs – 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself.
Body paragraph 5: 1 ½ pages – Use the 100 hour war case to answer the questions: Can leaders avoid pitfalls? Are they
cursed to suffer from organizational mismanagement of foreign policy? – Yes, the organization can help leader minimize the pitfalls and eliminate
mismanagement in pattern-matching when SOPs already built and 4 streams coordinated well.
Conclusion: 1 page
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