Web Exercise 5
Assignment – Web Exercise 5 Assignment – Web Exercise 5 As a manager, you are tasked with building a forecast of Microsoft stock price. R users: 1. Import historical Microsoft’s stock price data into the RStudio and declare the dataset as time series 2. Perform variance decomposition 3. Build Holt-Winters Model (you can either fix or relax parameters, it is your choice) 4. Provide visual aid that demonstrates the fit of your model MS Excel users: 1. Import historical Microsoft’s stock price data into the RStudio and declare the dataset as time series 2. Build one moving average and one exponential smoothing forecast (choose any coefficients) 3. Calculate all three accuracy measures (MAE, MSE, and MAPE) to compare your models and suggest the best one 4. Build an appropriate chart that displays the actual data and both of your forecasts. Submission Instructions: If you use R for this assignment, please submit a single PDF file with your answer. If you use MS Excel for this assignment, please submit a PDF with your answers and explanations and Excel spreadsheet file with your calculations (all formulas and functions must be present and functional). ASSIGNMENT SUBMISSION FORMATTING FILE TYPE All submissions of anything in this course is digital. Furthermore, all text documents must be of PDF file format upon submission. DOC, TXT, DOCX, or any other format will not be accepted as a valid submission. I have a hard absolute policy with this. So please, remember, don’t let your hard work result in a 0 all due to you not submitting a PDF. We live in the 21st century, and all modern operating systems have the easy ability to convert any of the types into a PDF format. Hence, please make sure that submissions are indeed in PDF format. Last, and most importantly, hard-submission (paper-format) will not be accepted as a valid form of submission. R (IF OPTED FOR) R code used to perform your final models/algorithms should be included in the appendix of your PDF file. Specific appendix can then be referenced in the main text. Only final models should be included. Typically, in this course, your R code should not exceed 1 page. R code should be inserted as text (in case if it needs to be copy-pasted into R), Courier (or Courier New) font 12, single space, with no background coloring. You do not need to attach R files (.R or .R history) to your homework submission. MS EXCEL (IF OPTED FOR) MS Excel file should be attached to the Black Board submission separately from your PDF. Please do not copy-paste any tables into your PDF files. Each page of your Excel file should contain your name and date. Each cell that contains your answer should have its formula that can be traced back to the original data. Your final calculations should properly mark either using the color or text in the adjacent cells. STYLE Each file (PDF and Excel, if chosen) should contain your name and date. Main text: Times New Roman, black, size 12, single space, indented paragraphs, 1 inch margins, no background color, portrait orientation R Code: Courier (or Courier New), black, sizes 8-12 (depending on output size), single space, no indented paragraphs, 1- inch margins, no background color, portrait or landscape orientation. MS Excel: Times New Roman font, black, size 12, single space, only answer cells should be highlighted. Summary of the Problem Give a brief introduction to the problem. Please do NOT copy and paste the original problem from the given case study. Give a brief one- two paragraph description of the overall goals of the study and what must be found to solve the problem. 2. Method of solving Describe which tools you learned in class which will be employed in the problem solving. Describe why the methods you are using will lead to a solution to the problems in the case study. 3. Give the derivation (if one is required) or how specifically you solved your problem in detail. Typically, you should discuss how you use the tools that you have mentioned in the previous section: what approach did you choose, what steps did you take, what are the decision criteria, cutoff points, etc. 4. Results Summarize your technical results as well as what the results mean. Your audience will typically prefer short summary tables, graphs, charts and plain English. After you have described the technical results, translate them into a meaning that any audience, regardless of their mathematical background, can understand. 5. Managerial Implications With any type of problem solving there are usually decisions attached to the solutions. You must take your results and provide recommendations for the best possible decision to make. Justify why you believe the recommended decision will be the best to make. 6. Appendix Appendix section should contain references in APA format (if anything other than textbook has been used), R code of your final models only, output of your final models, any charts or graphs (visualization items should be included in this section regardless of whether you are using R or Excel).
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