Project Management

This team assignment is intended to cultivate the skill of being able to identify situations or decisions that lend themselves to a Monte Carlo analysis/simulation. There are times when such situations are implicit in a case study or in a challenge or dilemma that an organization is facing. There may not be much explicit information in a case study or a real life situation to suggest that a Monte Carlo simulation is useful. (This was also discussed in this session’s narrative.) Being able to analyze a situation or a case and to unearth the potential for using Monte Carlo analysis is a highly valuable skill in itself, perhaps even greater than the skill of actually doing a Monte Carlo analysis. 

As a team, think about  a situation or challenge in one of your own organizations and identify one which you believe can be modeled and simulated with a Monte Carlo analysis. Clearly explain this situation or challenge in one or two paragraphs, then clearly explain the variables involved and their associated distributions (with parameters), set up the corresponding model in Crystal Ball, and run (simulate) it. Then explain in one or two paragraphs how you would use the simulation output.