You are the chief information security officer (CISO), and due to a government shutdown and other factors, your desktop team is unable to migrate to the latest version of Windows as you

I N F O R M A T I O N S E C U R I T Y

Computer Security Division Information Technology Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8930 September 2012 U.S. Department of Commerce Rebecca M. Blank, Acting Secretary National Institute of Standards and Technology Patrick D. Gallagher, Under Secretary for Standards and Technology and Director

Guide for Conducting Risk Assessments JOINT TASK FORCE TRANSFORMATION INITIATIVE

NIST Special Publication 800-30 Revision 1

Special Publication 800-30 Guide for Conducting Risk Assessments ________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Reports on Computer Systems Technology

The Information Technology Laboratory (ITL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) promotes the U.S. economy and public welfare by providing technical leadership for the nation’s measurement and standards infrastructure. ITL develops tests, test methods, reference data, proof of concept implementations, and technical analyses to advance the development and productive use of information technology. ITL’s responsibilities include the development of management, administrative, technical, and physical standards and guidelines for the cost-effective security and privacy of other than national security-related information in federal information systems. The Special Publication 800-series reports on ITL’s research, guidelines, and outreach efforts in information system security, and its collaborative activities with industry, government, and academic organizations.

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Authority

This publication has been developed by NIST to further its statutory responsibilities under the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA), Public Law (P.L.) 107-347. NIST is responsible for developing information security standards and guidelines, including minimum requirements for federal information systems, but such standards and guidelines shall not apply to national security systems without the express approval of appropriate federal officials exercising policy authority over such systems. This guideline is consistent with the requirements of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-130, Section 8b(3), Securing Agency Information Systems, as analyzed in Circular A-130, Appendix IV: Analysis of Key Sections. Supplemental information is provided in Circular A-130, Appendix III, Security of Federal Automated Information Resources.

Nothing in this publication should be taken to contradict the standards and guidelines made mandatory and binding on federal agencies by the Secretary of Commerce under statutory authority. Nor should these guidelines be interpreted as altering or superseding the existing authorities of the Secretary of Commerce, Director of the OMB, or any other federal official. This publication may be used by nongovernmental organizations on a voluntary basis and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Attribution would, however, be appreciated by NIST.

NIST Special Publication 800-30, 95 pages

(September 2012)

CODEN: NSPUE2

Comments on this publication may be submitted to:

National Institute of Standards and Technology Attn: Computer Security Division, Information Technology Laboratory

100 Bureau Drive (Mail Stop 8930) Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8930 Electronic mail: [email protected]

Certain commercial entities, equipment, or materials may be identified in this document in order to describe an experimental procedure or concept adequately. Such identification is not intended to imply recommendation or endorsement by NIST, nor is it intended to imply that the entities, materials, or equipment are necessarily the best available for the purpose.

There may be references in this publication to other publications currently under development by NIST in accordance with its assigned statutory responsibilities. The information in this publication, including concepts and methodologies, may be used by federal agencies even before the completion of such companion publications. Thus, until each publication is completed, current requirements, guidelines, and procedures, where they exist, remain operative. For planning and transition purposes, federal agencies may wish to closely follow the development of these new publications by NIST.

Organizations are encouraged to review all draft publications during public comment periods and provide feedback to NIST. All NIST publications are available at http://csrc.nist.gov/publications.

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Compliance with NIST Standards and Guidelines

In accordance with the provisions of FISMA,1 the Secretary of Commerce shall, on the basis of standards and guidelines developed by NIST, prescribe standards and guidelines pertaining to federal information systems. The Secretary shall make standards compulsory and binding to the extent determined necessary by the Secretary to improve the efficiency of operation or security of federal information systems. Standards prescribed shall include information security standards that provide minimum information security requirements and are otherwise necessary to improve the security of federal information and information systems.

• Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) are approved by the Secretary of Commerce and issued by NIST in accordance with FISMA. FIPS are compulsory and binding for federal agencies.2 FISMA requires that federal agencies comply with these standards, and therefore, agencies may not waive their use.

• Special Publications (SPs) are developed and issued by NIST as recommendations and guidance documents. For other than national security programs and systems, federal agencies must follow those NIST Special Publications mandated in a Federal Information Processing Standard. FIPS 200 mandates the use of Special Publication 800-53, as amended. In addition, OMB policies (including OMB Reporting Instructions for FISMA and Agency Privacy Management) state that for other than national security programs and systems, federal agencies must follow certain specific NIST Special Publications.3

• Other security-related publications, including interagency reports (NISTIRs) and ITL Bulletins, provide technical and other information about NIST's activities. These publications are mandatory only when specified by OMB.

• Compliance schedules for NIST security standards and guidelines are established by OMB in policies, directives, or memoranda (e.g., annual FISMA Reporting Guidance).4

1 The E-Government Act (P.L. 107-347) recognizes the importance of information security to the economic and national security interests of the United States. Title III of the E-Government Act, entitled the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA), emphasizes the need for organizations to develop, document, and implement an organization-wide program to provide security for the information systems that support its operations and assets. 2 The term agency is used in this publication in lieu of the more general term organization only in those circumstances where its usage is directly related to other source documents such as federal legislation or policy. 3 While federal agencies are required to follow certain specific NIST Special Publications in accordance with OMB policy, there is flexibility in how agencies apply the guidance. Federal agencies apply the security concepts and principles articulated in the NIST Special Publications in accordance with and in the context of the agency’s missions, business functions, and environment of operation. Consequently, the application of NIST guidance by federal agencies can result in different security solutions that are equally acceptable, compliant with the guidance, and meet the OMB definition of adequate security for federal information systems. Given the high priority of information sharing and transparency within the federal government, agencies also consider reciprocity in developing their information security solutions. When assessing federal agency compliance with NIST Special Publications, Inspectors General, evaluators, auditors, and assessors consider the intent of the security concepts and principles articulated within the specific guidance document and how the agency applied the guidance in the context of its mission/business responsibilities, operational environment, and unique organizational conditions. 4 Unless otherwise stated, all references to NIST publications in this document (i.e., Federal Information Processing Standards and Special Publications) are to the most recent version of the publication.

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Acknowledgements

This publication was developed by the Joint Task Force Transformation Initiative Interagency Working Group with representatives from the Civil, Defense, and Intelligence Communities in an ongoing effort to produce a unified information security framework for the federal government. The National Institute of Standards and Technology wishes to acknowledge and thank the senior leaders from the Departments of Commerce and Defense, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Committee on National Security Systems, and the members of the interagency technical working group whose dedicated efforts contributed significantly to the publication. The senior leaders, interagency working group members, and their organizational affiliations include:

Department of Defense Office of the Director of National Intelligence Teresa M. Takai Adolpho Tarasiuk Jr. DoD Chief Information Officer Assistant DNI and Intelligence Community Chief Information Officer

Richard Hale Charlene Leubecker Deputy Chief Information Officer for Cybersecurity Deputy Intelligence Community Chief

Information Officer

Paul Grant Catherine A. Henson Director, Cybersecurity Policy Director, Data Management

Dominic Cussatt Greg Hall Deputy Director, Cybersecurity Policy Chief, Risk Management and Information

Security Programs Division Kurt Eleam Policy Advisor

National Institute of Standards and Technology Committee on National Security Systems Charles H. Romine Teresa M. Takai Director, Information Technology Laboratory Chair, CNSS

Donna Dodson Richard Spires Cybersecurity Advisor, Information Technology Laboratory Co-Chair, CNSS

Donna Dodson Dominic Cussatt Chief, Computer Security Division CNSS Subcommittee Co-Chair

Ron Ross Jeffrey Wilk FISMA Implementation Project Leader CNSS Subcommittee Co-Chair

Joint Task Force Transformation Initiative Interagency Working Group

Ron Ross Gary Stoneburner Jennifer Fabius Kelley Dempsey NIST, JTF Leader Johns Hopkins APL The MITRE Corporation NIST

Deborah Bodeau Steve Rodrigo Peter Gouldmann Arnold Johnson The MITRE Corporation Tenacity Solutions, Inc. Department of State NIST

Peter Williams Karen Quigg Christina Sames Christian Enloe Booz Allen Hamilton The MITRE Corporation TASC NIST

In addition to the above acknowledgments, a special note of thanks goes to Peggy Himes and Elizabeth Lennon of NIST for their superb technical editing and administrative support. The authors also gratefully acknowledge and appreciate the significant contributions from individuals and organizations in the public and private sectors, both nationally and internationally, whose thoughtful and constructive comments improved the overall quality, thoroughness, and usefulness of this publication.

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DEVELOPING COMMON INFORMATION SECURITY FOUNDATIONS COLLABORATION AMONG PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES

In developing standards and guidelines required by FISMA, NIST consults with other federal agencies and offices as well as the private sector to improve information security, avoid unnecessary and costly duplication of effort, and ensure that NIST publications are complementary with the standards and guidelines employed for the protection of national security systems. In addition to its comprehensive public review and vetting process, NIST is collaborating with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Department of Defense (DoD), and the Committee on National Security Systems (CNSS) to establish a common foundation for information security across the federal government. A common foundation for information security will provide the Intelligence, Defense, and Civil sectors of the federal government and their contractors, more uniform and consistent ways to manage the risk to organizational operations and assets, individuals, other organizations, and the Nation that results from the operation and use of information systems. A common foundation for information security will also provide a strong basis for reciprocal acceptance of security authorization decisions and facilitate information sharing. NIST is also working with public and private sector entities to establish specific mappings and relationships between the security standards and guidelines developed by NIST and the International Organization for Standardization and International Electrotechnical Commission (ISO/IEC).

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Table of Contents

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 PURPOSE AND APPLICABILITY …………………………………………………………………………………….. 2 1.2 TARGET AUDIENCE …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 2 1.3 RELATED PUBLICATIONS ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 1.4 ORGANIZATION OF THIS SPECIAL PUBLICATION ……………………………………………………………….. 3

CHAPTER TWO THE FUNDAMENTALS ………………………………………………………………………. 4 2.1 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS …………………………………………………………………………………….. 4 2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 2.3 KEY RISK CONCEPTS ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6 2.4 APPLICATION OF RISK ASSESSMENTS …………………………………………………………………………. 17

CHAPTER THREE THE PROCESS ………………………………………………………………………….. 23 3.1 PREPARING FOR THE RISK ASSESSMENT …………………………………………………………………….. 24 3.2 CONDUCTING THE RISK ASSESSMENT …………………………………………………………………………. 29 3.3 COMMUNICATING AND SHARING RISK ASSESSMENT INFORMATION …………………………………….. 37 3.4 MAINTAINING THE RISK ASSESSMENT …………………………………………………………………………. 38

APPENDIX A REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………….. A-1 APPENDIX B GLOSSARY …………………………………………………………………………………… B-1 APPENDIX C ACRONYMS ………………………………………………………………………………….. C-1 APPENDIX D THREAT SOURCES …………………………………………………………………………. D-1 APPENDIX E THREAT EVENTS ……………………………………………………………………………. E-1 APPENDIX F VULNERABILITIES AND PREDISPOSING CONDITIONS ……………………………….. F-1 APPENDIX G LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE ………………………………………………………….. G-1 APPENDIX H IMPACT ……………………………………………………………………………………….. H-1 APPENDIX I RISK DETERMINATION……………………………………………………………………….. I-1 APPENDIX J INFORMING RISK RESPONSE ……………………………………………………………… J-1 APPENDIX K RISK ASSESSMENT REPORTS ……………………………………………………………. K-1 APPENDIX L SUMMARY OF TASKS ……………………………………………………………………….. L-1

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Prologue

“… Through the process of risk management, leaders must consider risk to U.S. interests from adversaries using cyberspace to their advantage and from our own efforts to employ the global nature of cyberspace to achieve objectives in military, intelligence, and business operations…”

“… For operational plans development, the combination of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts must be evaluated in order to identify important trends and decide where effort should be applied to eliminate or reduce threat capabilities; eliminate or reduce vulnerabilities; and assess, coordinate, and deconflict all cyberspace operations…”

“… Leaders at all levels are accountable for ensuring readiness and security to the same degree as in any other domain…”

— THE NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR CYBERSPACE OPERATIONS OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

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CAUTIONARY NOTES

SCOPE AND APPLICABILITY OF RISK ASSESSMENTS

• Risk assessments are a key part of effective risk management and facilitate decision making at all three tiers in the risk management hierarchy including the organization level, mission/business process level, and information system level.

• Because risk management is ongoing, risk assessments are conducted throughout the system development life cycle, from pre-system acquisition (i.e., material solution analysis and technology development), through system acquisition (i.e., engineering/manufacturing development and production/deployment), and on into sustainment (i.e., operations/support).

• There are no specific requirements with regard to: (i) the formality, rigor, or level of detail that characterizes any particular risk assessment; (ii) the methodologies, tools, and techniques used to conduct such risk assessments; or (iii) the format and content of assessment results and any associated reporting mechanisms. Organizations have maximum flexibility on how risk assessments are conducted and are encouraged to apply the guidance in this document so that the various needs of organizations can be addressed and the risk assessment activities can be integrated into broader organizational risk management processes.

• Organizations are also cautioned that risk assessments are often not precise instruments of measurement and reflect: (i) the limitations of the specific assessment methodologies, tools, and techniques employed; (ii) the subjectivity, quality, and trustworthiness of the data used; (iii) the interpretation of assessment results; and (iv) the skills and expertise of those individuals or groups conducting the assessments.

• Since cost, timeliness, and ease of use are a few of the many important factors in the application of risk assessments, organizations should attempt to reduce the level of effort for risk assessments by sharing risk-related information, whenever possible.

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CHAPTER 1 PAGE 1

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION THE NEED FOR RISK ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT ENTERPRISE-WIDE RISK MANAGEMENT

rganizations5 in the public and private sectors depend on information technology6 and information systems7 to successfully carry out their missions and business functions. Information systems can include very diverse entities ranging from office networks,

financial and personnel systems to very specialized systems (e.g., industrial/process control systems, weapons systems, telecommunications systems, and environmental control systems). Information systems are subject to serious threats that can have adverse effects on organizational operations and assets, individuals, other organizations, and the Nation by exploiting both known and unknown vulnerabilities to compromise the confidentiality, integrity, or availability of the information being processed, stored, or transmitted by those systems. Threats to information systems can include purposeful attacks, environmental disruptions, human/machine errors, and structural failures, and can result in harm to the national and economic security interests of the United States. Therefore, it is imperative that leaders and managers at all levels understand their responsibilities and are held accountable for managing information security risk—that is, the risk associated with the operation and use of information systems that support the missions and business functions of their organizations.

Risk assessment is one of the fundamental components of an organizational risk management process as described in NIST Special Publication 800-39. Risk assessments are used to identify, estimate, and prioritize risk to organizational operations (i.e., mission, functions, image, and reputation), organizational assets, individuals, other organizations, and the Nation, resulting from the operation and use of information systems. The purpose of risk assessments is to inform decision makers and support risk responses by identifying: (i) relevant threats to organizations or threats directed through organizations against other organizations; (ii) vulnerabilities both internal and external to organizations; (iii) impact (i.e., harm) to organizations that may occur given the potential for threats exploiting vulnerabilities; and (iv) likelihood that harm will occur. The end result is a determination of risk (i.e., typically a function of the degree of harm and likelihood of harm occurring). Risk assessments can be conducted at all three tiers in the risk management hierarchy—including Tier 1 (organization level), Tier 2 (mission/business process level), and Tier 3 (information system level). At Tiers 1 and 2, organizations use risk assessments to evaluate, for example, systemic information security-related risks associated with organizational governance and management activities, mission/business processes, enterprise architecture, or the funding of information security programs. At Tier 3, organizations use risk assessments to more effectively support the implementation of the Risk Management Framework (i.e., security categorization; security control selection, implementation, and assessment; information system and common control authorization; and security control monitoring).8

5 The term organization describes an entity of any size, complexity, or positioning within an organizational structure (e.g., a federal agency or, as appropriate, any of its operational elements) that is charged with carrying out assigned mission/business processes and that uses information systems in support of those processes. 6 Organizations also manage information technology in the form of common infrastructures, sets of shared services, and sets of common controls. 7 An information system is a discrete set of information resources organized for the collection, processing, maintenance, use, sharing, dissemination, or disposition of information. 8 The Risk Management Framework is described in NIST Special Publication 800-37.

O

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CHAPTER 1 PAGE 2

1.1 PURPOSE AND APPLICABILITY The purpose of Special Publication 800-30 is to provide guidance for conducting risk assessments of federal information systems and organizations, amplifying the guidance in Special Publication 800-39. Risk assessments, carried out at all three tiers in the risk management hierarchy, are part of an overall risk management process—providing senior leaders/executives with the information needed to determine appropriate courses of action in response to identified risks. In particular, this document provides guidance for carrying out each of the steps in the risk assessment process (i.e., preparing for the assessment, conducting the assessment, communicating the results of the assessment, and maintaining the assessment) and how risk assessments and other organizational risk management processes complement and inform each other. Special Publication 800-30 also provides guidance to organizations on identifying specific risk factors to monitor on an ongoing basis, so that organizations can determine whether risks have increased to unacceptable levels (i.e., exceeding organizational risk tolerance) and different courses of action should be taken.

This publication satisfies the requirements of FISMA and meets or exceeds the information security requirements established for executive agencies9 by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in Circular A-130, Appendix III, Security of Federal Automated Information Resources. The guidelines in this publication are applicable to all federal information systems other than those systems designated as national security systems as defined in 44 U.S.C., Section 3542. The guidelines have been broadly developed from a technical perspective to complement similar guidelines for national security systems and may be used for such systems with the approval of appropriate federal officials exercising policy authority over such systems. State, local, and tribal governments, as well as private sector organizations are encouraged to consider using these guidelines, as appropriate.

1.2 TARGET AUDIENCE This publication is intended to serve a diverse group of risk management professionals including:

• Individuals with oversight responsibilities for risk management (e.g., heads of agencies, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, risk executive [function]);

• Individuals with responsibilities for conducting organizational missions/business functions (e.g., mission/business owners, information owners/stewards, authorizing officials);

• Individuals with responsibilities for acquiring information technology products, services, or information systems (e.g., acquisition officials, procurement officers, contracting officers);

• Individuals with information system/security design, development, and implementation responsibilities

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