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Probabilities & Lotteries

Glenda Garrido Blanco

St. Thomas University

STA-2023-AP1-Applied Statistics

Dr. Freddy Suarez

April 13,, 2023

Probabilities & Lotteries

If individuals understood the mathematics behind probability and lotteries, they would consider twice spending hundreds of dollars annually on lottery tickets. This is because the odds of winning a lottery are typically less than 1 in 100 million (Walker, 2017). Consequently, spending a substantial amount of money on lottery tickets is tantamount to tossing it away, as there is little chance of recovering it.

According to research, those with a greater understanding of probability tend to gamble less frequently (Scherer, Waghorn, & Barkham, 2017). In one study, participants who received a brief introduction to probability principles were less likely to engage in irrational gambling than those who did not (Langer, Pagonis, & Weber, 2018). Those with a greater understanding of probability were less likely to believe in superstitious gambling beliefs, such as fortunate numbers or rituals, according to another study (Ohtsuka, Schellinck, & Ohtsuka, 2017).

According to Hansen and Ross (2016), lottery ticket purchasers typically hail from low-income families. These individuals may be particularly susceptible to the marketing strategies of lotteries, which frequently target clients with messages of optimism and aspirations for prosperity (Tversky & Kahneman, 2017). People from low-income households may be better able to resist these marketing strategies and make more informed purchasing decisions if they have a greater understanding of the mathematics of lotteries.

If individuals had a deeper understanding of the mathematics underlying probability and lotteries, they would likely consider twice before purchasing pricey lottery tickets. Individuals can use this data to gain a better understanding of their purchasing habits and to avoid falling victim to lottery marketing schemes.

                                                                                  References

Hansen, C., & Ross, D. (2016). Who plays the lottery? Identifying consumers who are attracted to lottery products. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 33(3), 178-185.

Langer, M., Pagonis, S., & Weber, M. (2018). Financial literacy and problem gambling: An experimental intervention. Journal of Gambling Studies, 34(3), 937-954.

Ohtsuka, K., Schellinck, T., & Ohtsuka, T. (2017). Gambling behavior and beliefs among university students: What are the influences of problem gambling in parents, siblings, and friends?. Journal of Gambling Studies, 33(4), 1255-1269.

Scherer, J., Waghorn, J., & Barkham, M. (2017). Examining the relationship between problem gambling and educational achievement: A meta-analysis. Journal of Gambling Studies, 33(2), 537-549.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (2017). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychology Bulletin, 76(2), 105-110.

Walker, M. (2017). The economics of lotteries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2), 93-115.

Probabilities and Lotteries 

Vera Brito Delgado 

St. Thomas University 

Applied Statistics. STA 2023 AP1 

Dr. Freddy Suarez 

04/13/2023 

Probabilities and Lotteries  

   Many people spend a lot of money on lottery tickets yearly. However, if mathematics involving lottery probabilities were open to the public, most people would spend less on the same. Under

nearly all circumstances, people try their best to avoid failing in anything (Zeisberger, 2022). The fear of failure is a great catalyst to make them avoid the lottery if they know of the probabilities

there.   

   Paying attention to the probabilities of the lottery game would be necessary to avoid failure. Since the lottery is a game involving simple options, there is no guaranteed win for anyone (Sekścińska

& Rudzinska-Wojciechowska, 2022). People should not take the lottery as a more serious thing to spend their significant monies and precious time on it. The lottery can only be a fun game but not

for an activity, trying to beat the system.   

   The probability of winning the lottery is very low compared to the number of people competing. However, understanding the probabilities of the numbers drawn increases the chances of winning

for the players (Zeisberger, 2022). The players can then make informed decisions depending on the available data. Players increase their chances by buying more tickets and picking random numbers

instead of birthdays, important dates, etcetera. However, players can increase the odds of winning, but the probability of a win is a very long shot. 

References 

Sekścińska, K., & Rudzinska-Wojciechowska, J. (2022). Risk taking in gambling task: The role of psychological variables in lottery risk-taking.  Personality and Individual Differences,  197, 111790.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2022.111790Links to an external site.  

Zeisberger, S. (2022). Do people care about loss probabilities?  Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,  65(2), 185-213.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09391-yLinks to an external site.

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