Teen pregnancy is always an importantand intractable problem. Thestatistics show that the teen birth rate was 74.8 pregnancies per 1,000 females ages 15-17 in 1989,which is pretty striking.
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answer Empirical Model and Data Sections questions
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Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023I.Basic Info1.Proposal Type:Presentation2.Title:Plan B: Why Plan A does not work?The effectiveness of Plan B One-Step laws approval by the FDA in 2013 on teen pregnancy ratein different states in America3.Research Abstract:Teen pregnancy is always an importantand intractable problem. Thestatistics show that the teen birth rate was 74.8 pregnancies per 1,000 females ages 15-17 in 1989,which is pretty striking. Hence, the FDA (the Food and Drug Administration) enacted a policyallowing teens over 15 years old to buy Plan B without a prescription. OJJDP (Office of JuvenileJustice and Delinquency Prevention) in the U.S. Department of Justice provides data on the teenbirth rate in different years across the state. Hence, we will use the difference-in-differencemethod augmented with year and state fixed effects to examine how to rate changes over time indifferent states. Additionally, if DiD does not work well, synthetic control is another goodapproach to evaluate the effect of the intervention which was the law in 2013. Considering thepossibility of a lag effect, people may need time to react, so the pregnancy rate may start tochange after several years. In a logical way, the law allows teens to buy Plan B more easily, so thepregnancy rate will decrease. If the law is effective in reducing the rate, the policy makers canencourage more states to enact the law and protect teenagers physical and mental health.II.Research Topic4.Description of Research TopicTeen pregnancy is an issue that the government has to pay closer attention to. It notonly affects teens themselves like their mental and physical health, but also has a negative impact on thewhole of society. For example, it is difficult for teens who get pregnant to pursue education, and they maydrop out of school, increasing the rate of illiteracy in society. Also, teenagers may face difficulty inseeking employment, which means that they have to depend on subsidies or welfare schemes to overcomefinancial stress. To handle the situation, the government has to spend money on financial assistance, childhealth care, and foster care. Lastly, it is more likely for teenage mothers to suffer from emotional stresssince they have to take care of their babies’ daily lives and work hard to raise the babies. In other words,they are more prone to committing suicide. Social support is crucial for them to overcome depression.In the paper, I will examine the effect of the Plan B One-Step law on the pregnancy rate. Statesimplemented the law differently: some laws allow teenagers to buy Plan B without a prescription, butothers do not. Hence, the states following the laws can be considered as treatment groups, in which theteen pregnancy rate will be compared with the ones in other states. With the application of1
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023difference-in-difference and synthetic control, it is more likely for us to evaluate the true effect of theOne-Step law on teen birth rates. I believe that the effectiveness of the law helps policymakers to decidewhether the government should expand the law in a wider scope across the country.5.HypothesisThe Plan B One-Step law is enacted to protect teenagers and prevent them from dropping outfrom schools. It allows them to buy Plan B without prescription. Hence, the study is to test whether thelaw has an effect in reducing teen birth rates.H1: Plan B One-Step law in 2013 will lead to a decrease in the teenage pregnancy rateAfter the approval of the law, it is easy for teenagers to buy Plan B in stores, so the pregnancyrate will reduce correspondingly. Even if other factors also play a role in influencing the rate, they maynot change very quickly (at least five years). Besides, it is possible that there is a lag effect, which meansthat people need to take time to react to the law. Thus, it is reasonable to say that there is no obviouschange in the short run (within one to two years).III.Theoretical Basis6.Literature ReviewIn addition to the Plan B law, several papers analyze different variables that may influence theteen birth rate such as sexual dependence, family relationships, and contraception.1)Sexual DependenceIn the article The role of pornography use and dependencyin U.S. teenagers sexual illiteracy?,there is a study, examining American adolescents’ dependence on pornography consumption and products.Thus predicting whether adolescents are more likely to hold misconceptions. The article highlights twovariables, pornography dependence and frequency of consumption. Pornography dependence mainlyrefers to the degree of knowledge about sex through the use of pornography (products, movies).Consumption frequency mainly refers to the regularity with which an individual views pornography. Thearticle proves that pornography dependence and consumption frequency are positively correlated withadolescents’ misconceptions through thorough investigation. At the same time, pornography dependenceand consumption frequency interacted. I thought of using this article as a reference to research teenageporn dependence and how often they consume it. We learn more about adolescents’ need for sex. Ofcourse, we also need to find more data to support the frequency of our teenage sex life and their relativelyspecific spending on sex. These factors can provide insight into a teen’s chances of getting pregnant. Atthe same time, I think it can also be found that teenagers lack sexual knowledge. Because there areproblems with the information input of teenagers, this also leads to them not knowing how to live a2
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023correct sex life, contraception, and self-protection. However, we may not find enough data on pornconsumption since it is illegal in the U.S., so we should focus more on other variables.2)Family RelationshipThe article Family relationships and adolescent pregnancyrisk: A research synthesis? explores the impact offamily relationships on teenage pregnancy. From thearticle, it can be found that the degree of intimacy between parents and children, parental supervision ofadolescents, and parental values against adolescent sexual intercourse all have an impact on adolescentpregnancy. When families are more bonded, this leads to lower teen pregnancy rates. At the same time,the study found that high-quality mothers/partners/sex partners will pay more attention to the use ofcontraceptives, thereby reducing the risk of teenage pregnancy. At the same time, family structure andparents’ marital status are also influencing factors for adolescents. Although there is no more intuitive datain this article to prove the impact of family relationships on adolescent pregnancy, family relationshipswill greatly affect children’s sexual values. We cannot investigate the relationship between parents andchildren as in the article. But we can consider exploring the impact on teenage pregnancy from theperspective of family structure (brother/sister, parents marital status).3)ContraceptionAccording to the article Contraceptive use and consistencyin U.S. teenagers’ mostrecent sexual relationships?, when sexual partnersare in a more long-term, stable relationship, they aremore likely to use contraception. At the same time, family and personal background were also related tocontraceptive consistency. Male adolescents had a relatively higher awareness of contraception if theywere from a complete family or had a religious background. Women will have higher contraceptive usewhen they are in a romantic relationship. Conversely, women’s chances of using contraception were cut inhalf if they were involved in a period of violent sex. Article-specific data: consistency of contraceptiveuse, sexual partnership, sexual history, contraceptive use, familial and personal characteristics. The data inthis article more directly prove whether adolescents are consistent with contraceptive use. At the sametime, among the many contraceptive methods, women who use hormones are more than four times asmany as women who use condoms. The use of hormonal methods is associated with increasedconsistency in female contraceptive use. This article is more about the factors that show the consistencyof contraception.There is another one The impact of over-the-counteravailability ofplan B? on teens’ contraceptive decision making?,showing the use of emergency contraception.Although the data is for women aged 15-44. But it divides the age range of 15-18 years old (teenagers).Influencing factors also included race, education, employment status, religion, marital status, number oflifetime sexual partners, and use of various contraceptive methods. The use of emergency contraception3
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023doubled between 2008 and 2015. At the same time, due to legal restrictions, teenagers aged 15-19 stillencounter many problems that they cannot buy emergency contraceptives. Emergency contraceptives,while readily available, still face some social attitude issues for adolescents at this age. At the same time,the price of Plan b is $50. For many teens, the emergency contraceptive pill is a relatively expensive formof birth control.Analysis from the current research shows that the consistency of adolescent contraceptivemethods is related to the family (family relationship, sex education), race, religion, etc. of both men andwomen. If family relationships are good and parents and children communicate positively, teen pregnancyrates will decrease. Families with a strong family structure and a religious background also have lowerrates of teenage pregnancy. These factors can affect whether adolescents are likely to become pregnantand therefore use birth control pills and emergency contraceptives. At the same time, the relationshipbetween sexual partners, sexual dependence, and frequency also determine the likelihood of pregnancy inadolescents. If the sexual partners have a good long-term relationship, adolescents will increase the use ofcondoms and long-term contraceptive hormones, thereby reducing the need for emergency contraceptives.At the same time, the family income also indirectly affects adolescents’ choice of contraceptive productsbecause teenagers are unable to afford the high price of Plan B.7.Theoretical ModelBasically, the study will examine the influence of Plan B One-Step law on teen birth rate.According to the articles above, the pornography dependence, family relationships, teenagersrelationship with partners all more or less influence the pregnancy rate. Also, other factors such asreligion, race, influence teenagers decisions regarding contraception. We will put the variables intoconsideration and analyze their effect. The details of our methodology will be explained next.IV.Methodology8.Data and MethodologyThe teen birth rate is the main dependent variable of the study. The statistics are provided by theOffice of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. The office of justice program of the U.S.Department of Justice lists the rates from 1999 to 2020 of all the states. As mentioned before, the birthrate may vary across ages: the more mature the teens (the older they are), the more careful they will makedecisions about pregnancy. The website also gives us information on average pregnancy rates for teenswhose ages are from 15 to 17, from 18 to 19, and the average number from 15 to 19 years old. The KaiserFamily Foundation offers information on law applications in different states. We can consider law as adummy variable. The variable is 1 if the state follows the federal law, otherwise, it equals 0.4
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023Other variables like family income and the prohibition of abortion may also influence the teenbirth rate. Some people believe in a religion that does not allow women to abort, which causes teens toavoid pregnancy. However, it is also possible that teens have to give birth to children because of theprohibition of abortion. Hence, we have to control the variable constant. The data is provided by Statistain which there is the number of religious Americans in all years by state. Statista lists the distribution ofall religions, what we need to do is find the religions prohibiting abortion and do the analysis. For thisvariable, we may correlate the number of religious people and the teen birth rate. Additionally, the U.S.Trustee Program/Dept. of Justice has the information of census bureau median family income by familysize, including the median income of one earner, two people, three people, and four people in all states.We can use the statistics to analyze the influence of family income on the teen birth rate since teens whodo not have money to buy Plan B will try their best to avoid pregnancy. One obvious drawback is that wedo not know how old the child is in the family, he/she may be a kid instead of a teenager, so the data canonly provide us with an approximate conclusion.Methodology:The main model is the analysis may be:(1)Teen Birth Rates,t= β0+ β1Laws,t+β2Abortions,t+β3Family Incomes,t+ εFirst, we analyze the effect in the multivariate regression line. Basically, abortion andfamily income are omitted variables, so we put them into regression in order to keep themconstant. Since we do not put year and state into consideration, the units of observation will beyears from 2000 to 2020, and all states. There may be outliers but they are not great enough toinfluence our conclusion.(2)Teen Birth Rates,t= β0+ β1Time+β2States+β3(Time x States) + εNext, we will utilize the Difference-in-Difference method. Time was 2013 since the lawwas enacted in this year. We are going to compare the teen birth rate before and after 2013.Considering the different situations across the states, states following the law are in treatmentgroups; others are in control groups. The method makes it possible for us to evaluate the effectover time across states.(3)RMSP = Post Period Gap / Pre Period GapThe last approach is the synthetic control model. We will use it when DiD does not work.Most researchers use DiD when they want to compare values between two states, but we have 52data in 52 states here. Synthetic control can help us solve the issue. The logic is that we take onestate as treatment and the rest is in control. From ECON 326 class, it is a five-step procedure.5
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023Firstly, we choose predictor variables and list pre-intervention values of the outcome variable.Then, it is important to identify possible donor? entities to control and eliminate irrelevantentities. Next, we have to weigh donor entities to create synthetic control and measure the gapbetween synthetic control. The last step is running sensitivity and placebo tests. Finally, we willget a graph showing the regression line of a certain state that is the synthetic result of that state.Some states may play a more important role in the study but we do not weigh them in the correctway. At this time, what we need to do is use the RMSP formula to find the outliers and theformula is listed ahead.V.Results9.Preliminary FindingsI expect the teen birth rate to be lower in Plan B One-Step law implemented states compared tothe non-implementing states; thus supporting my hypothesis that the Plan B One-Step laws approval bythe FDA in 2013 is effective in reducing the teen pregnancy rate in America. It is possible that there maybe a lag effect, the rate may start to change after one or two years.VI.Conclusions10.Practical Applications or Policy ImplicationsThe result is significant for the government to protect teenagers mentally and physically. The teenpregnancy rate also shows the education level in one area, so the finding prompts the policymakers tomake a decision on whether they should expand the law in more states. Since we also analyze otherpotential variables that may have an effect on the rate, the government can refer to the conclusion. Forexample, it is possible to enact policies to decrease the poverty level and increase citizens educationlevel; they are all potential factors influencing the teenage pregnancy rate.Reference:Manlove, J., Ryan, S., & Franzetta, K. (2004). Contraceptive use and consistency in U.S. teenagers’ mostrecent sexual relationships.Perspectives on Sexualand Reproductive Health,36(6), 265?275.https://doi.org/10.1363/36265046
Zhouzhou Liu/Wenshu DiaoCase Western Reserve UniversityFeb.27 2023Miller, B. C., Benson, B., & Galbraith, K. A. (2001). Family relationships and adolescent pregnancy risk:A research synthesis.Developmental Review,21(1),1?38. https://doi.org/10.1006/drev.2000.0513Krishnamurti, T., Eggers, S. L., & Fischhoff, B. (2008). The impact of over-the-counter availability ofplan B? on teens’ contraceptive decision making.Social Science & Medicine,67(4), 618?627.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.04.016Wright, P. J., Tokunaga, R. S., Herbenick, D., & Paul, B. (2021). Pornography vs. sexual science: The roleof pornography use and dependency in U.S. teenagers sexual illiteracy.Communication Monographs,89(3), 332?353. https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751.2021.19874867
Empirical Model and Data Sections
Empirical Framework
Write out the details of your empirical model. Include the following information*:
Create a subsection titled: Estimation Strategy:
What equations will you estimate? Will you estimate various equations (different dependent variables and/or different independent variables?) Write them out as equations with the proper subscripts to indicate the units of measurement (see hereLinks to an external site. how to write an equation and the image below). Be clear on the functional form: If you plan to take the log, put that in the equation. If you will have interaction terms, put that in the equation. If you use a quadratic term, include the square. If you will have fixed effectsLinks to an external site., indicated which controls are fixed effects. Use shortened names for your variables (don’t put “Y” “X” or “Z” or if you do, put a legend below the equation defining the Y(s), X(s) and Z(s) (e.g. “Zs are age, gender, and education”)
Example
How will you estimate these equations? OLS using a probit model? Difference-in-difference estimator? Regression discontinuity?
What is the hypothesis test of interest for your main testable prediction?
What signs do you predict on the independent variables? Explain, particularly for the variable(s) of interest.
This is why there should generally be a one-to-one mapping from the main testable prediction to the empirical framework. If your outcome variable or variable of interest needs to be constructed or estimated, this is where youd discuss it.
Identification Strategy
What would the ideal data set look like to study your question? (Note, NOT the data you have — what you’d ideally have. You might think hiding that you don’t have idea data makes your analysis more believable, but the opposite is true. Research is more believable the more rigorous and analytical one is and upfront about what are the shortcomings.)
How close are you to that ideal, and what prevents you from getting closer?
Then, discuss in turn how your identification strategy deals or not with (i) unobserved heterogeneity, (ii) reverse causality or simultaneity, and (iii) measurement error.
Also think about what a violation of the stable unit treatment value assumptionLinks to an external site. looks like here (does one observation getting treated somehow affect the outcome of another observation?), and whether you can somehow test for it.
Data
Data:
When was it collected?
Where?
Why?
By whom?
How was the sample selected?
Who was interviewed, or how were the data collected?
What is the sample size? How does it compare to the population of interest?
Do you lose any observations? Why?
Did you have to impute any values and, if so, how did you do it (IN DETAIL EXPLAIN)?
Are any variables proxies for the real thing?
What does each variable measure, exactly, or how was it constructed?
By the time you’ve written up these two sections, the reader should have a clear idea of what you’re about to do in your data analysis. The next section you’ll write up is your Data Exploration section (which is your next partner assignment).
Appendix:
Slide(format of research proposal):
Data:
Law(dummy variable)
Teen birth rate:
Religion distribution (2017), data in other years can be gathered in the same website:
Do we need this variable?
Poverty rate
percent of people in poverty, by state, 2002-2010
2002-2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Race percentage:
High school graduation rate:
2010-2018
2019
Article:
Law and pregnancy rate:
Pregnancy:
Law:
Others:
Article analysis:
The impact of over-the-counter availability of Plan B? on teens’ contraceptive decision making
Why do states do differently? It is a federal law
Poverty rate/ percentage of high school degrees/Average family size?
Red or blue state? Every two years enact a new senator
Race
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