Describe the annual seasonality of VCLA income or room demand. 1. View the Financial Statements. Students can review historical profit and loss (P&L) records to develop or describe t
Describe the annual seasonality of VCLA income or room demand.
1. View the Financial Statements.
Students can review historical profit and loss (P&L) records to develop or describe the seasonality over the year.
2. Why do VCLA’s revenue spikes not always occur at the same time as maximum room demand?
Students should understand the difference in timing between when the hotel collects the assessment and when the city actually deposits it in the VCLA’s account.
Room demand is an example of a good indicator of when the hotel collects the income.
3. What is the average historical growth rate of VCLA revenue?
Review the Forecast. The average historical growth rate is ?. However, growth since the inception of the operation is not sustainable. What should they do?
4. What would the sales growth rate be in an economic decline or upturn?
Review Scenarios. Analyse the four scenarios for growth rate and marketing spending adjustment.
5. What financial and economic assumptions must be considered to develop the forecast?
Review room supply may impact VCLA revenue and GDP data.
10-8.5 |
8.49-8 |
7.9-7 |
6.9-6 |
5.9-1 |
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1.Review and analyse the company performance through the Financial Statements. |
Clearly and explicitly analyses the performance of the company over time, using horizontal and vertical analysis, variance analysis and using constant reference to the case and external resources to provide a wider insight. |
Clearly and explicitly analyses the performance of the company over time, using horizontal and vertical analysis, variance analysis and using constant reference to the case. |
A strong analysis of the performance of the company over time, using horizontal and vertical analysis, variance analysis and using constant reference to the case. |
Clearly and explicitly An analysis of the performance of the company over time, using horizontal and vertical analysis, variance analysis and using constant reference to the case. |
The numbers are not adequately or reasonably explained and / or either horizontal, vertical of variance analysis has not been included. |
2. Why do VCLA’s revenue spikes not always occur at the same time as maximum room demand? |
Students should clearly demonstrate a clear understanding of the difference between events and payments, explaining how they do not necessarily occur at the same time. Reference to the case and external examples. |
Students should adequately demonstrate a an understanding of the difference between events and payments, explaining how they do not necessarily occur at the same time. Reference to the case and external examples. |
Students should adequately demonstrate a an understanding of the difference between events and payments, explaining how they do not necessarily occur at the same time. Reference to the case. |
Students should adequately demonstrate a an understanding of the difference between events and payments. at the same time. Reference to the case and external examples. |
No understanding or adequate explanation of the variance between transactions and payments or inadequate examples from the case. |
3. What is the average historical growth rate of VCLA revenue? Review the Forecast. The average historical growth rate is ?. However, growth since the inception of the operation is not sustainable. What should they do? |
Well-structured, detailed and thorough analysis and projections are explained as a further step from year to year projections. All assumptions should be explained in terms of changes in variances as opposed to solely numerical explanations. |
Well-structured, analysis and projections are explained as a further step from year to year projections. All assumptions should be explained in terms of changes in variances as opposed to solely numerical explanations. |
Adequate and reasonable analysis and projections are explained as a further step from year to year projections. All assumptions should be explained in terms of changes in variances as opposed to solely numerical explanations. |
All projections are explained as a further step from year to year projections. All assumptions should be explained in terms of changes in variances as opposed to solely numerical explanations. |
The numbers are not represented as variance and / or the changes are adequately explained. |
4. What would the sales growth rate be in an economic decline or upturn? Review Scenarios. Analyse the four scenarios for growth rate and marketing spending adjustment. |
A clear and accurate analysis of the four scenarios in conjunction with a detailed understanding of the current economic climate and reflect on how the macro factors, combined with their marketing approach can affect performance. Reference to the case and external information should be used. |
A clear and accurate analysis of the four scenarios and reflect on how the macro factors, combined with their marketing approach can affect performance. Reference to the case and external information should be used. |
A clear and accurate analysis of the four scenarios and reflect on how the macro factors, combined with their marketing approach can affect performance. Reference to the case is imperative. |
A good understanding of the four scenarios and to reflect on how the macro factors, combined with their marketing approach can affect performance. References to the case. |
Failure to use the 4 scenarios or demonstrate an understanding of business impact of either marketing and / or economic indicartors. |
5. What financial and economic assumptions must be considered to develop the forecast? |
Review how room supply may impact VCLA revenue and GDP data, reflecting on the relationship between room supply and GDP reflecting on how both situations impact the market. Reference to the case and external sources is a must.. |
Review how room supply may impact VCLA revenue and GDP data, reflecting on the relationship between room supply and GDP reflecting on how both situations may impact the market. Reference to the case and external sources. |
Understand the relationship between room supply and GDP reflecting on how both situations may impact the market. Reference to the case and external sources. |
Show an understanding of the relationship between room supply and GDP reflecting on how both situations may impact the market. Reference to the case and external sources. |
No clear understanding of the relationship between room supply and GDP reflecting on how both situations may impact the market and / or no reference to the case and / or external sources. |
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Forecasting tourism tax receipts: the case of Ventura County Lodging Association | ||
Developed by: | Chia-Li Chien, PhD, CFP®, PMP® John F Thiel, CFP®, MBA Stefan W Cosentino, Ph.D. | |
Version: | 2020.3 | 3/18/20 |
Tabs in This File: | Description | |
FinancialStatements | VCLA Financial Statements from 2013 to 2017 | |
Benchmark | STR Summary Benchmark from 2012 to 2019 | |
RevenueBenchmark | Revenue Benchmark | |
DemandBenchmark | Demand Benchmark | |
Demand_Re_Bench | Demand Relative to Benchmark | |
Revenu_Re_Bench | Revenue Relative to Benchmark |
FinancialStatements
Historical Analysis | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Menu | |||
Assumptions | |||||||||
Information were obtained from Tax Returns from 2013 through 2017 | |||||||||
IRS publication 598 (Rev. February 2019) Tax on Unrelated Business Income (UBI or UBTI) have no cap & exclusions of interestes, dividends, etc. | |||||||||
Therefore, tax-exempt status not jeopardized: : https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p598.pdf | |||||||||
(Jul 1 – June 30) Fiscal year | |||||||||
Income Statement | |||||||||
Program Service Revenue | 1,571,211 | 1,938,969 | 2,538,303 | 2,900,151 | 2,923,280 | ||||
Total Expenses | 1,605,842 | 1,635,219 | 2,230,334 | 2,447,184 | 2,474,605 | ||||
Gross Profit | (34,631) | 303,750 | 307,969 | 452,967 | 448,675 | ||||
Balance Sheet | |||||||||
Assets | |||||||||
Cash – non interest bearing | 449,213 | 754,953 | 1,067,884 | 1,522,646 | 1,977,413 | ||||
Total Current Asstes | 449,213 | 754,953 | 1,067,884 | 1,522,646 | 1,977,413 | ||||
Non-Current Assets | |||||||||
Land, buildings, & Equipment | 5,948 | 6,855 | 6,855 | 6,855 | 6,855 | ||||
Less: accumulated depreciation | 740 | 2,312 | 3,974 | 4,841 | 5,320 | ||||
Land, buildings, & Equipment, net | 5,208 | 4,543 | 2,881 | 2,014 | 1,535 | ||||
Other assets (due from credit card) | 2,346 | 1,021 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | ||||
Total Assets | 456,767 | 760,517 | 1,070,765 | 1,524,660 | 1,978,948 | ||||
Liabilities & Net Assets | |||||||||
Other Liabilities (credit card payable) | – 0 | – 0 | 2,279 | 3,207 | 8,820 | ||||
Total Liabilities | – 0 | – 0 | 2,279 | 3,207 | 8,820 | ||||
Net Assets | 456,767 | 760,517 | 1,068,486 | 1,521,453 | 1,970,128 | ||||
Expenses Claimed on Tax Returns | |||||||||
Expenses | |||||||||
Mangement | 369,510 | 372,555 | 246,333 | 180,560 | |||||
Legal | 4,300 | 5,700 | 9,400 | 27,475 | |||||
Accounting | 7,639 | 11,452 | 18,958 | 23,911 | |||||
Other Fees & Services Expenses | 37,610 | 4,098 | 3,500 | 246,506 | |||||
Office Expenses | 9,894 | 15,320 | 7,667 | 11,357 | |||||
Information Technology | 7,337 | 2,169 | 5,161 | 7,421 | |||||
Occupancy (rent) | 10,970 | 15,074 | 18,133 | 17,124 | |||||
Travel | 15,965 | 15,426 | 17,248 | 12,287 | |||||
Payments for travel or entertainment for any federal, state, or local public officials | – 0 | – 0 | 635 | ||||||
Confferences, conventions, & meetings | – 0 | 10,068 | 3,430 | – 0 | |||||
Depreciation, depletion, & amortization | 1,572 | 1,662 | 867 | 479 | |||||
Insurance | 4,689 | 5,775 | 6,481 | 5,084 | |||||
Marketing & Sales Promotion | 1,132,833 | 1,732,275 | 2,072,005 | 1,897,613 | |||||
Collection Fees | 19,390 | 25,383 | 29,002 | 29,233 | |||||
Dues & Subscriptions | 5,442 | 6,120 | 4,277 | 7,292 | |||||
Telephone | 4,533 | 5,400 | 4,245 | 7,355 | |||||
All other expenses | 3,535 | 1,857 | 477 | 273 | |||||
Total Functional Expenses (Federal) | 1,635,219 | 2,230,334 | 2,447,184 | 2,474,605 | |||||
Total Functional Expenses (State) separate lines for rents & depreciation | 1,622,677 | 2,213,598 | 2,428,184 | 2,457,002 | |||||
straight line | straight line | MACRS | MACRS | ||||||
502,386 | 498,059 | 375,179 | 576,992 | ||||||
Benchmark
Source: 1084466_Ventura CA Area Se spreadsheet | |||||
Demand By Measure Average Monthly | Revenue By Measure Average Monthly | % Demand by Measure (change) | % Revenue by Measure (change) | ||
2012 | 96,050 | 9,126,951 | 2.1 | 4.7 | |
2013 | 97,896 | 9,556,567 | 6.0 | 13.1 | |
2014 | 103,543 | 10,782,144 | 3.5 | 11.3 | |
2015 | 106,887 | 11,981,718 | 4.2 | 12.3 | |
2016 | 111,209 | 13,405,411 | (0.9) | 1.8 | |
2017 | 109,689 | 13,492,306 | (2.3) | 2.3 | |
2018 | 106,725 | 13,674,461 | (4.8) | (2.2) | |
2019 | 100,073 | 12,151,451 | 2.1 | 7.6 | |
Source: Smith Travel Research (2019). Trend Report – Ventura, CA Are
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