Description of a behavioral anomaly to be exploited (or corrected). This must include specific behavioral biases and an explanation of how these biases lead to the observed behavior
Description of a behavioral anomaly to be exploited (or corrected). This must include specific behavioral biases and an explanation of how these biases lead to the observed behavior/anomaly, including why market forces alone may not act to eliminate them.
Evaluating Major Anomalies
FIN402_30: Bahavioral Finance in Personal Investment
Evaluating Major Anomalies
Lagged Reactions to Earnings Announcements
The lagged reactions to earnings announcements are an anomaly that occurs when stock prices do not respond immediately to the release of earnings reports. Instead, there is a delay in the reaction, suggesting that investors may still need to process the information in the report fully. This anomaly challenges the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which assumes that all relevant information is immediately incorporated into stock prices (Wang, Faff & Zhu, 2022). The potential effects of the lagged reactions to earnings announcements are many. Firstly, it can lead to a mispricing of stocks in the short term. If investors do not react immediately to the release of earnings reports, stock prices may not reflect the company's true value. This can lead to opportunities for informed investors to take advantage of the mispricing and make profitable trades.
Secondly, the lagged reactions can also lead to a lack of confidence in the market. If investors perceive that the market needs to react immediately to important information, they may be less likely to invest in the market. This could cause a reduction in liquidity and lower overall market efficiency (Sattar, Toseef & Sattar, 2020). Thirdly, the lagged reactions may also lead to increased volatility in the market. If investors do not react immediately to the release of earnings reports, stock prices may fluctuate more than they would if investors were able to process the information more quickly. This increased volatility can make it harder for investors to make profitable trades.
Small-firm Effect
The small-firm effect is an anomaly in finance that suggests that small-cap stocks tend to outdo large-cap stocks over the long term. This is a phenomenon that contradicts the "Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)," which predicts that riskier assets should have higher returns (Areiqat et al., 2019). The small-firm effect, sometimes known as the "size impact," argues that investors may underestimate small-cap shares, resulting in greater profits for those who trade in them. One potential explanation for the small-firm effect is that small-cap stocks are less researched and followed by analysts, leading to a need for more information about these companies. This lack of information may make small-cap stocks appear riskier than they actually are, leading to undervaluation.
Additionally, small-cap stocks may be more susceptible to market sentiment and fluctuations, which can make them more volatile than large-cap stocks. However, over the long term, the returns on these stocks may be higher. Another potential explanation for the small-firm effect is that small-cap stocks have more opportunity for growth than large-cap stocks (Pandey & Joshi, 2021). As small-cap companies grow and become more successful, their stock prices may rise, leading to higher returns for investors.
The small-firm effect has a number of potential effects on the financial markets. For one, small-cap stocks may be undervalued by investors, leading to higher returns for those who invest in them. Additionally, the small-firm effect may also lead to increased volatility in the markets, as small-cap stocks may be more susceptible to market sentiment and fluctuations (Pandey & Joshi, 2021). Furthermore, the small-firm effect may also lead to increased risk for investors, as small-cap stocks may need more research and followed by analysts. This lack of information can make it more difficult for investors to make informed decisions about these stocks.
Value Advantage
Long-term value stocks outperform growth stocks due to the value advantage. This anomaly challenges the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which predicts higher-risk assets should have higher returns. The value advantage suggests that value stocks may be undervalued by investors, leading to higher returns for those who invest in them (Sattar, Toseef & Sattar, 2020). Value stocks are typically defined as companies with a low price-to-book ratio, a low price-to-earnings ratio, and high dividends. These companies often have a history of steady earnings, a strong balance sheet, and a solid track record of paying dividends. On the other hand, growth stocks are typically defined as companies with high earnings growth potential and are anticipated to mature faster than the overall market.
The value advantage can have several potential effects on the market. Firstly, it can lead to the underperformance of growth stocks and the outperformance of value stocks. This can negatively impact investors, with a significant portion of their portfolio invested in growth stocks (Sattar, Toseef & Sattar, 2020). Secondly, it can lead to the undervaluation of value stocks, which can create opportunities for investors to buy undervalued stocks at a lower price. Thirdly, it can lead to a higher return on investment for value stock investors in the long term.
Additionally, the value advantage can also have an effect on the overall market. It can lead to a revaluation of value stocks, which can result in an increase in the overall market value. It can also lead to a shift in investor preferences, with more investors opting to invest in value stocks over growth stocks. This can lead to a change in the composition of the market. With a higher percentage of the value, the stocks are being traded.
Momentum
Momentum is a financial market oddity that says that stocks that have fared well in the past will likely keep performing well in the future. A contrary proposition to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is this, which says that all information is instantaneously integrated into stock prices and that previous performance does not forecast future results, this is the case. The momentum effect is often observed in both stock and commodity markets.
The momentum effect has several potential effects on the financial markets. Firstly, it can create inefficiencies in the market as investors may overpay for stocks currently performing well and undervalue those performing poorly (Sattar, Toseef & Sattar, 2020). Secondly, it can lead to increased volatility in the markets as the trend of high-performing stocks may change abruptly, and investors may be caught off guard. Additionally, the momentum effect may affect the performance of actively managed funds, investors who tend to buy stocks based on past performance and sell stocks based on recent performance. However, the momentum effect can also lead to underperformance for these funds as the trend may change abruptly, and they may be left holding overvalued stocks.
Reversal
The reverse is an oddity in behavioral finance that predicts that stocks that have historically underperformed are likely to continue to underperform in the future. In contrast, the momentum effect predicts that equities. That who have done well in the past will likely continue to do so. The reversal effect can have several potential effects on investors and the market as a whole. One potential effect is that it can lead to underperformance for investors who continue to hold onto losing stocks in the hope that they will recover in the future (Sattar, Toseef & Sattar, 2020). This is because the reversal effect suggests that stocks have performed poorly. In the past, they are likely to continue to perform poorly in the future. Another potential effect is that the reversal effect can lead to over-performance for investors who actively trade and take advantage of the effect. For example, an investor who sells losing stocks and buys winning stocks may be able to outperform the market.
In conclusion, behavioral finance is an important field of study because it challenges modern finance's traditional assumptions and highlights anomalies in financial markets. These anomalies suggest that markets may not be as efficient as previously thought and that investors may not always act rationally. Understanding these anomalies can help investors make more informed decisions and potentially lead to more efficient markets.
References
Antony, A. (2020). Behavioral finance and portfolio management: Review of theory and literature. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(2), e1996.
Areiqat, A. Y., Abu-Rumman, A., Al-Alani, Y. S., & Alhorani, A. (2019). Impact of behavioral finance on stock investment decisions applied study on a sample of investors at Amman stock exchange. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 23(2), 1-17.
Pandey, A., & Joshi, R. (2021). Examining Asset Pricing Anomalies: Evidence from Europe. Business Perspectives and Research, 22785337211025712.
Sattar, M. A., Toseef, M., & Sattar, M. F. (2020). Behavioral finance biases in investment decision making. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management, 5(2), 69.
Wang, Q., Faff, R., & Zhu, M. (2022). Realized moments and the cross-sectional stock returns around earnings announcements. International Review of Economics & Finance, 79, 408-427.
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Due Date: 11:59 p.m. EST, Sunday of Unit 7 Points: 100 Overview: This project will be a venue for you to apply the concepts and methods developed in class in a practical context of your interest. The goal of the project is to develop an implementable idea that has the potential to generate value in that context. Instructions: Choose one of the following perspectives for your project:
a. a portfolio management team looking for a new trading strategy; b. a consulting firm advising corporations on issues of financial management; c. an entrepreneurial start-up developing a retail financial product (further
alternatives can be thought of – e.g., social entrepreneurship is a viable venue in some cases where profit opportunities are not available but correcting a bias would have great social value).
You will submit your desired topic/idea choice for instructor approval during Unit 2. In each case, the main deliverable is in the form of a “pitch” to potential clients, which can include institutional investors in the case of portfolio managers, corporate clients, or venture capitalists. Your project must contain the following elements:
• Description of a behavioral anomaly to be exploited (or corrected). This must include specific behavioral biases and an explanation of how these biases lead to the observed behavior/anomaly, including why market forces alone may not act to eliminate them.
• Description of the proposed strategy for taking advantage of this anomaly (e.g., in the case of asset mispricing) or for correcting the bias, either profitably or with benefit to society.
• Evidence supporting the idea behind the strategy (why should it succeed?).
• Description of risks and challenges (why might it fail?).
FIN402: Behavioral Finance in Personal Investment
Unit 7 Assignment: Portfolio Management Project
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Requirements:
• The length of the paper should be 6-8 pages and double-spaced with additional title and reference pages included.
• Begin your pitch with an appropriate introduction and complete it with a related conclusion.
• Use a minimum of five (5) resources. Academic research journals should make up at least two (2) of these. You may also cite the course text.
• Proper grammar and APA formatting must be followed. • See grading criteria on the following page.
Be sure to read the criteria by which your work will be evaluated before you write and again after you write.
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Evaluation Rubric for Portfolio Management Project
CRITERIA Needs Improvement Satisfactory Proficient
(0-13 Points) (14-17 Points) (18-20 Points) Analyzes the Material
The pitch is unclear or fairly clear but discussed too broadly and does not meet expectations. Contextual factors are weakly considered and lacking in some significant areas. Complex issues are overlooked or handled without care. The application is stretched or not applied.
The pitch is presented, and all items are discussed appropriately, though may be lacking specific details. Contextual factors are considered but can be expanded on in some areas. Key terms are defined, and complex issues are recognized.
The pitch is clearly presented, and all items are discussed in detail. Contextual factors are considered. Key terms are defined, and complex issues are navigated with precision.
Pitch Approach Introduction and conclusion are missing or may be lacking details to properly set up and then wrap up the essay. The introduction/ conclusion are not related.
Introduction and conclusion are included and set up and wrap up the essay, though they could be stronger and/or relate better.
Introduction and conclusion effectively set up and wrap up the essay. The introduction/ conclusion relate well to each other and work together to appeal to the reader.
Research Elements
Academic sources are not used, or there are few than five (5). Arguments incorporate research but often include personal opinion without appropriate support. Sources are, at times, not used appropriately. Research is not aware of multiple viewpoints of complex issues.
At least five (5) academic primary and secondary materials, including academic journal articles, are used throughout the pitch. Arguments are supported with research materials and are aware of multiple viewpoints of complex issues; however arguments can be more strongly supported with research.
At least five (5) academic primary and secondary materials, including academic journal articles, are appropriately used throughout the pitch. Research incorporates multiple viewpoints of complex issues and arguments are correctly and strongly supported with research.
Structure and Flow
Flow is poor. Paragraphing is inappropriate. Transitions are minimal or absent. Redundancy is evident.
Flow is good. Paragraphing is mostly appropriate. Transitions are present, and redundancies are minimal.
Flow is excellent. Paragraphing is clear, and transitions are smooth and consistent. Inappropriate redundancies are absent.
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CRITERIA Needs Improvement Satisfactory Proficient (0-6 Points) (7-8 Points) (9-10 Points)
Clear and Professional Writing and APA Format
Errors impede professional presentation; no/minimal APA guidelines followed.
Few errors contained that do not impede professional presentation. Some APA guidelines may not be followed.
Writing and format are clear, professional, APA compliant, and error free.
(0 Points) (10 Points) Assignment Length
Assignment length is significantly less than or more than requirement.
N/A Assignment meets length requirement.
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