Housing Permits, Housing Starts, Housing Construction and Government Revenue You will notice that the readings (well there are some data sites and some charts and graphs) cov
Housing Permits, Housing Starts, Housing Construction and Government Revenue
You will notice that the readings (well there are some data sites and some charts and graphs) cover a variety of topics—well it seems that way but not really so. What you are going to do a
forecasting the near-time future for revenue collection coming into primarily local governments but also state governments as a result of how you are looking at the housing market. In the case of the readings I have given you, you will notice some address housing permits, some address housing starts (or construction). Local governments, in particular, pay attention to these things because they are trying to project future revenue (property taxes) that will collect. Several years back I was going over the housing permits that were issued for St. Louis County and a local government official was noticing that the vast majority of the housing permits were for construction west of Lindbergh, not East (in fact, Chesterfield and around there). So, from that data you could begin to make some projections about what that meant to which local governments within the county. I went over similar housing permits issued in Saint Charles County and a local government official was noticing the number of permits for housing construction in
the “high-end” market. Both of these conversations were some years before the onset of the Great
Recession we see beginning in 2009. But, you start to get the idea that data about housing permits, when construction will begin, the types of homes to be built are closely followed regarding their impact on projecting revenue to be collected.
GUIDELINES FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT
1) minimum of five .
2) discuss various charts, graphs, data (notice I gave you links to US Census Bureau sites). You want to show how you use data to draw conclusions about government revenue to be collected.
3) In addition , housing construction affects other policy areas (besides revenue to be, hopefully, collected). Housing affects traffic congestion, schools to be built, the need for new fire stations, or police stations and other policy areas. So while I have you primarily focusing on housing permits, housing construction and government revenue, be aware in your about other policy areas that will be impacted.
4) Here you are—forecasting. Notice, where and how you use information to look into the future (usually not too far into the future).
US CENSUS BUREAU ON CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOUSING:
http://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html
US CENSUS BUREAU ON HOUSING PERMITS AND STARTS
This page you use it to look at the period from getting the permits to starting and
completion housing construction:
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/lengthoftime.html
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030 [email protected] [email protected]
FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2017
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, JULY 2017
Release Number: CB17-133
August 16, 2017 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for July 2017:
NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
JULY 2017
Building Permits: 1,223,000
Housing Starts: 1,155,000
Housing Completions: 1,175,000
Next Release: September 19, 2017
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,223,000. This is 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised June rate of 1,275,000, but is 4.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the July 2016 rate of 1,175,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 811,000; this is unchanged from the revised June figure of 811,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 377,000 in July.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8 percent (±10.2 percent)* below the revised June estimate of 1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 856,000; this is 0.5 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the revised June figure of 860,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 287,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,175,000. This is 6.2 percent (±14.3 percent)* below the revised June estimate of 1,252,000, but is 8.2 percent (±12.6 percent)* above the July 2016 rate of 1,086,000. Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 814,000; this is 1.6 percent (±11.9 percent)* below the revised June rate of 827,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 T
ho us
an ds
o f U
ni ts
New Residential Construction (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Permits Starts Completions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, August 16, 2017
Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301‐763‐5160 301‐763‐3030 [email protected]
The August report is scheduled for release on September 19, 2017. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: <www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The full text and tables for this release can be found at <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/>.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and five months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 2 percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website. <www.census.gov/construction/nrc/how_the_data_are_collected/ >
America’s Economy Mobile App The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators released from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. <www.census.gov/mobile/economy/>
API The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever before. <www.census.gov/developers/>
‐X‐
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
New Privately‐Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit‐Issuing Places (Thousands of Units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.)
Table 1a ‐ Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,175 718 30 427 106 51 188 106 605 395 276 166 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,200 743 36 421 117 53 192 112 606 407 285 171 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,270 749 39 482 142 53 181 113 618 408 329 175 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,285 779 32 474 116 59 202 113 616 420 351 187 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,255 786 41 428 119 55 187 120 608 419 341 192 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,266 830 39 397 131 54 187 119 604 452 344 205
2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,300 806 29 465 153 59 198 124 653 451 296 172 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,219 834 45 340 117 54 247 136 585 448 270 196 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,260 826 37 397 136 53 192 128 623 456 309 189 April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,228 794 36 398 120 53 192 124 579 424 337 193 May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,168 779 32 357 122 52 173 108 579 436 294 183 June (r) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,275 811 35 429 104 57 207 120 622 445 342 189 July (p) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,223 811 35 377 124 56 171 116 613 452 315 187
. Average RSE (%) 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6 2 3 5 3 4 2 2 2 3
Percent Change 2
Jul. 2017 from Jun. 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‐4.1% 0.0% 0.0% ‐12.1% 19.2% ‐1.8% ‐17.4% ‐3.3% ‐1.4% 1.6% ‐7.9% ‐1.1%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 0.9 ± 1.1 ± 7.3 ± 2.3 ± 6.9 ± 11.0 ± 2.5 ± 2.2 ± 1.3 ± 1.5 ± 2.1 ± 2.0
Jul. 2017 from Jul. 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1% 13.0% 16.7% ‐11.7% 17.0% 9.8% ‐9.0% 9.4% 1.3% 14.4% 14.1% 12.7%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 1.8 ± 2.1 ± 10.9 ± 3.8 ± 5.0 ± 7.4 ± 4.0 ± 2.9 ± 3.2 ± 3.2 ± 2.1 ± 3.2
Table 1b ‐ Not seasonally adjusted
Total 1 unit
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit Total 1 unit
2015 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,182.6 696.0 32.1 454.5 162.0 52.4 170.6 104.7 572.8 378.2 277.2 160.7 2016 Annual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,206.6 750.8 34.8 421.1 116.4 54.3 186.1 112.4 594.5 406.0 309.6 178.1
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X X X X X X X X X X X
2016 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 688.1 439.1 19.0 230.0 63.4 30.7 104.0 65.8 347.5 238.9 173.2 103.7 2017 Year to date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732.5 487.2 20.2 225.0 70.1 32.0 108.9 70.7 366.4 270.0 187.1 114.5
. RSE (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 4 1 2 4 3 3 1 2 1 2
Year to date percent change² . . . . . . . . . 6.5% 11.0% 6.3% ‐2.2% 10.6% 4.2% 4.7% 7.5% 5.4% 13.0% 8.0% 10.4%
. 90 percent confidence interval 3 . . . . . . ± 0.6 ± 0.8 ± 6.5 ± 1.0 ± 2.7 ± 3.8 ± 2.5 ± 2.3 ± 1.1 ± 0.7 ± 0.8 ± 1.8
2016 July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97.9 61.2 2.6 34.1 9.1 4.5 16.6 9.4 49.6 32.8 22.7 14.5 August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.6 71.3 3.6 36.8 11.0 5.0 19.4 11.9 55.1 38.3 26.2 16.2 September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.7 63.4 3.6 44.6 13.4 5.0 18.4 10.7 51.9 33.6 28.0 14.2 October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104.0 61.6 2.7 39.7 9.5 5.1 18.9 10.1 48.7 32.3 26.9 14.2 November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.5 55.9 3.2 35.3 9.6 4.4 14.6 8.8 44.2 29.3 26.1 13.5 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.8 55.5 3.0 36.4 10.5 3.7 11.3 6.5 45.8 31.2 27.2 14.1
2017 January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.3 53.6 1.9 31.8 9.6 3.5 10.0 5.7 48.6 33.3 19.2 11.2 February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.8 57.8 3.0 24.0 6.4 3.0 12.7 7.1 45.8 34.0 19.9 13.6 March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.5 77.1 3.1 32.3 10.8 4.6 15.9 11.2 

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