How you plan to calibrate your model
Produce a plan for your modelling study.This is for formative purposes only and is not marked. This is a means of obtaining constructive feedbackto check and refine your plans, and compare with other students, before you continue with your modelling study. The planshould include:
• The climate or environmental system you will study – you may include a diagram;
• The scientific question you intend to answer;
• The model you plan to use – youmay include a diagram;
• A brief outline of your plans, including:
o Thescenario(s) of your scientific question: i.e.environmental conditions or policy interventions
o Your experimental design: i.e. which uncertain model parameters you will vary (or consider varying), and how
o The observations you will use to calibrate your model
o How you plan to calibrate your model
• Initial test results from your model (ideally a plot, or else numbers)
We recommend you include figures, e.g.: a diagram of your system of study and/or model; a figure showing your observational data; at least one plot of your initial test results.
The initial test results from your model may use the default settings of the model, but we strongly recommend you include results from changing some inputs (i.e.scenario and/or parameters).
Note the last practical (Week 10)is intended for you to runtest simulations with your chosen model. You should therefore have (a) tested that you can successfully run your model, and (b) developed your plan,
main essay :.2500 words report!
Write a report of your environmental modelling study. Please read the guidance under ‘Assessment Overview’carefully.
The report must include model output (figures such as graphs or images; tables) to highlight the points made, and should include (with appropriate in-text citations throughout, referring to and building on peer-review literature):
• A definition of the climate/environmental system under study, with a description of its relevance and importance.
• A statement of the scientific question(s) and/or environmental intervention(s) you will study.
• A critical background of the state-of-the-art in modelling this system using key literature and studies. You may find a table format useful when comparing model attributes, strengths and weaknesses.
• A description of the model and your experimental design to (a) make predictions under different policy interventions or environmental conditions, and (b) assess the sensitivity of these predictions to uncertain inputs such as parameters.
• A description of the observational dataset and method you will use to calibrate your model.
• The results of your sensitivity analysis and calibration.
• Interpretation of the results, in terms of your scientific question and/or intervention, and a comparison with other studies.
• A discussion of the limitations of the model and study, and potential future directions.
You may include an appendix (refer to it in the text) with code or a description/diagram of your workflow, to illustrate the work that was authored or edited by you. This is particularly important if you are adapting existing work such as the practical sessions or online code/tutorials. Detailed tables/figures of results may also be included in an appendixso as to improve the flow of the report.
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