Carbon Footprint Exercise ?1) Go to https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx 2) Calculate your carbon footprint.? For each tab (Welcome, House, Flights,

12/13/17

1

What Determines Global Temperatures?

What determines the radiative budget of the planet?

• Solar radiation from sun • Lost radiation back to space

• Absorbed radiation retained by planet

Radiative Forcings A radiative forcing is a factor that changes the

balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.

Radiative Forcings Radiative forcing is a factor that changed in

the balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.

Positive forcings tend on average to warm the

surface of the earth

Radiative Forcings Radiative forcing is a factor that changed in

the balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.

Positive forcings tend on average to warm the

surface of the earth

Negative forcings tend on average to cool the surface of the earth.

12/13/17

2

Radiative forcings & feedbacks* •  Positive

– Greenhouse gases – Tropospheric ozone – Solar radiation – Black carbon on snow (also aerosols) – Water vapor* – Albedo* – loss of sea ice and snow cover.

•  Negative – Aerosols (clouds* and industrial aerosols) – Albedo – Landuse

Radiative forcings can change independent of global

temperatures

Feedbacks are “forcings” that change with temperature.

Greenhouse gases

How do we know increases in these gases increase global

temperatures?

Historical Correlation

Quantum Mechanics

O2 and N2 do not absorb and emit energy from photons with

wavelengths in the infrared range.

Greenhouse gases do and in all

directions.

Weather versus Climate?

12

12/13/17

3

Weather vs. Climate • Weather

– Time scale: minutes to seasons – Spatial scale: local to regional

• Climate – Time scale: averaged of years and decades – Spatial scale: regional to global – Patterns of weather over long periods

• Hurricanes • Droughts • Precipitation • etc.

13

Global Temperatures

How do we measure the earth’s temperature?

15

Instrumental Record Thermometers and Satellites

16 1840’s to present 1978 to present

Instrumental Record • Weather stations around the world • Data collected by several different

research groups. – NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies

(GISS) – National Oceanographic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) national Climate data Center (NCDC)

– Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office (HADCRUT)

• They quality check the data and produce analyzed data sets. 17

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study (BEST) • Richard Muller – physicist who was

skeptical of other groups work • Analyzed global data using a different

methodology and additional data •  Found same patterns as other groups

18

12/13/17

4

Satellites • Measure temperature indirectly by

irradiance and at different layers of atmosphere

• Two groups analyze data • Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) • University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) • Both groups show warming trend

– RSS, 0.162 oC per decade – UAH, 0.138 oC per decade – Instrumental 0.2 oC per decade 19

Proxy Record

20

Temperature Proxies • Proxy

– something that reliably changes with temperature.

– Needs to be comparable to present measurements. Something that changed both before and and after the instrumental record.

• Types of Proxies – Isotopes in organisms and rocks – Isotopes in ice cores – Stratigraphic profiles of organisms – Tree ring data

21

During the ice ages, how did global temperatures fluctuate?

23

Pattern during ice ages • Changes from 4 oC to 7 oC • Change since last ice age of about 4 oC • Abrupt changes in Ice ages occur over

5000 to 10,000 years • Last 150 years 0.99 oC and predictions for

200 year period between 2 oC to 6 oC. • Causes of changes different

24

12/13/17

5

Since the last ice age, how do global temperatures fluctuate?

The last 1,800 years

The last 1,000 years 1,800 year global pattern

• Warmer today than anytime in that period • Medieval Climate Anomaly (800 – 1200 AD) • Little Ice Age (1550 – 1850 AD)

28

Pattern since industrial revolution

29 base period 1951-1980

12/13/17

6

Why is the Arctic warming so fast?

31

Arctic Warming

Arctic Warming 2 times global rate

Arctic Amplification • Sea ice acts as a reflector which cools the

Arctic. • As Arctic warms there is less sea ice on

average over the year. • Areas free of sea ice absorb heat instead

of reflect it. • This creates even more warming and

more ice melt. • Which results a positive feedback loop.

34

What about the oceans? Ocean versus land

Air above oceans versus ocean water

36

12/13/17

7

38

Energy Budget Inflation

39

6/19/18

1

Biological Effects of Climate Change

Biological Effects of Climate Change

Biological Effects of Climate Change

1) Increased CO2.

2) Changes in Climate.

Biological Effects of Climate Change

1) Increased CO2.

a) Changes in ocean chemistry.

b) Impacts on plant growth.

6/19/18

2

Changes in ocean chemistry Ocean acidification

• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.

6

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated

1.4 PgC y-1

+ 7.7 PgC y-1 3.0 PgC y-1

29%

4.1 PgC y-1

45%

26% 2.3 PgC y-1

6/19/18

3

Ocean acidification

• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.

• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.

9

CO2 + H2O Carbonic Acid

pH scale

11

pH scale

12

Lower pH is more acidic.

6/19/18

4

pH scale

13

Lower pH is more acidic. Higher pH is less acidic.

pH scale

14

pH uses a logarithmic scale.

pH 6 is 10x as acidic as pH 7.

Ocean acidification

• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.

• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.

15 16

6/19/18

5

Ocean acidification

• Increase CO2 in atmosphere, it will increase in ocean water.

• CO2 in water changes to an acid which decreases the pH of the water.

• As pH decreases this impacts organisms that build parts of their bodies with calcium carbonate.

17

CO2 + H2O Carbonic Acid

An increase in ocean acidity decreases carbonate

concentration.

Calcium + carbonate = Calcium carbonate

the principle ingredient in the bodies calcareous animals.

An increase in ocean acidity decreases carbonate

concentration.

This makes it harder for calcareous animals to form and maintain body part made with

calcium carbonate.

6/19/18

6

Calcareous Organisms

Foraminifera

22

23

Mollusks – Clams, snail, and their kin

24

Coral

6/19/18

7

25

Coral Structure

Calcium

Carbonate

27

Calcareous algae

28

Echinoderms

6/19/18

8

29

Crustaceans

Since 1850’s

30% increase in ocean acidity.

100x faster change then last 20 million years.

Change in ocean pH

By 2100 a 0.3 to 0.5 decline in pH

300% in acidity

6/19/18

9

33

Does it have an affect?

Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous

animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.

36

6/19/18

10

37

Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous

animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.

• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.

39 40

6/19/18

11

Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous

animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.

• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.

• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.

42

Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous

animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.

• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.

• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.

• Parts of the ocean that have acidified the most have shown shifts in the composition of plankton species.

44

Krill

6/19/18

12

45

Krill

Salps

Does it have an affect? • Lab experiments show impacts on calcareous

animal growth, immune response, and reproduction.

• Lab experiments show shell and coral deterioration at lowered pH.

• Areas of ocean that naturally have lower pH, have fewer organisms that have structures made of calcium carbonate.

• Parts of the ocean that have acidified the most have shown shifts in the composition of plankton species.

• Reefs where pH has declined have exhibited coral thinning.

47

Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and

already detectable.

6/19/18

13

Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and

already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is

imminent.

Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and

already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is

imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts.

Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and

already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is

imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts. • It is rapid, but recovery is slow.

Monaco Declaration • Ocean acidification is underway and

already detectable. • It is accelerating and serious damage is

imminent. • It will have socioeconomic impacts. • It is rapid, but recovery is slow. • Only way to control it is by limiting future

atmospheric CO2 levels.

6/19/18

14

53

CO2 concentration effects on plants CO2 concentration effects

on plants. • In many species a higher concentration of

CO2 increases the growth rate. – These controlled lab studies usually control for

climate change impacts of CO2 on plant growth.

– As anthropogenic climate change progresses, extreme weather events are becoming more common and intense. These impacts could negate gains in growth rates in the field.

CO2 concentration effects on plants.

• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.

• Some species may use less water.

CO2 concentration effects on plants.

• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.

• Some species may use less water. • In many ecosystems this increase is

moderated by other limiting resources.

6/19/18

15

CO2 concentration effects on plants.

• In many species a higher concentration of CO2 increases the growth rate.

• Some species may use less water. • In many ecosystems this increase is

moderated by other limiting resources. • Many species of plants will exhibit an

increase in the ratio of carbohydrates to proteins in their cells. – Implications for both human and wildlife

nutrition & may impact population dynamics.

6/19/18

1

Biological effects of climate change An Organism’s Climate

Envelope

Temperature Precipitation Seasonality

An Organism’s Climate Envelope

Temperature Precipitation Seasonality

A warming climate effects all three.

6/19/18

2

6/19/18

3

How will North American plants respond?

6/19/18

4

13 14

Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a

given species.

Pika

6/19/18

5

Talus slopes – Rocky Mtns.

17

Pika

Above 78oF severe

physiological stress.

•  15% of historic populations extinct. •  With only modest action – 75% gone by 2070. •  Aggressive action – 51%.

19

Increasing temperatures can make an area either less or more suitable for a

given species.

6/19/18

6

Pine Beetle

22

Temperature vs. Survival

Responses to physiological stress

•  Stay in place. –  Local or global extinction. –  Acclimation. –  Adaptation.

•  Move. –  Dispersal.

6/19/18

7

Extinction

67 percent (dozens) of Harlequin Frog species extinct.

Chytrid fungus increase with temperature.

White Lemuroid Opossum

Australia

4hrs > 86F

fatal

27

Thomas et al. Study

•  Estimate species climate envelope. •  Assume that species climate envelope will not

evolve significantly in 50 years. •  Model with and without species based

dispersal. •  Model three climate scenarios. •  Range of extinction values from 18% to 35%. •  Other studies predict up to 75% biodiversity

loss.

6/19/18

8

Acclimation

European Black Cap

Over-wintering in England.

Behavioral Acclimatization or Evolutionary Adaptation?

Examples of Successful Adaptations.

6/19/18

9

Red Squirrel

Over 10 years female squirrels now give birth on average 18 days earlier in the year than their great-grandmothers.

15% due to genetic change.

Bog Mosquito Adaptation

Mosquito Adaptation Holzapfel & Bradshaw

•  30 year New England Study. •  Winter temperature up 4.4oF in 30 years. •  Hibernation Timing.

– Come out too early use resources needed to survive.

– Go into too late freezes to death. •  Hibernating 7.4 days later. •  Showed evolutionary response in lab to

changed temperatures.

6/19/18

10

Which species are most likely to adapt?

Which species are most likely to adapt?

Those with short generation times – 2 years or less.

Dispersal

Dispersal

•  Dispersal Rate. •  Presence of dispersal agent. •  Availability of Suitable habitat.

6/19/18

11

Different species move at different rates.

This can disrupt ecological interactions and have a ripple effect through a

community.

Synchronous vs. Asynchronous Dispersal.

Synchronous Dispersal Synchronous Dispersal

6/19/18

12

Asynchronous Dispersal Asynchronous Dispersal

Latitudinal Range Shifts

North American and British

Birds Northward

Shift.

6/19/18

13

Latitudinal Shifts

•  Majority of North American birds have shifted ranges to the north in last 30 years. 2.35 kilometers/year.

•  Majority of British Birds have shifted ranges to north.

•  Wide geographic distribution of patterns implicates climate change.

Elevational Range Shifts

Dominant plant species along an elevation gradient shifted synchronously with one another over a 30-year span that had a concurrent temperature increase, based on

a new study by Kelly and Goulden (13)

Breshears D. D. et.al. PNAS 2008;105:11591-11592

© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA

Habitat Loss

6/19/18

14

Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops

Biodiversity on Mountain Tops Biodiversity on Mountain Tops

6/19/18

15

The Hawaiian ‘I‘iwi

57

White-tailed ptarmigan 58

Bicknell’s Thrush

6/19/18

16

Polar Bears and

Habitat Loss.

Arctic Warming

Arctic Sea Ice Habitat

•  Bears use sea ice for feeding.

•  Bears use sea ice for feeding.

•  Sea ice is declining.

Arctic Sea Ice Habitat

6/19/18

17

•  Bears use sea ice for feeding.

•  Sea ice is declining. •  Cubs survival.

decreasing and adult condition decreasing.

Arctic Sea Ice Habitat

•  Bears use sea ice for feeding

•  Sea ice is declining •  Cubs survival

decreasing and adult condition decreasing

•  Polar bear populations are declining where sea- ice thinning

Arctic Sea Ice Habitat Life Cycle Timing Cues

•  Temperature. •  Light/Dark Daily Cycle.

6/19/18

18

Life Cycle Timing.

Cycles of Activity and Dormancy.

False spring and early bud burst.

Life Cycle Timing

Dispersal and Migration

American Woodcock

6/19/18

19

Life Cycle Timing

Reproduction

Egg Laying Dates

•  Migrate earlier. •  Lay eggs earlier. •  Response of Insect Prey. •  Prey availability and reproductive timing may

be out of sync. •  Birds can respond by:

– No response and population decline. – Acclimate and learn to breed in sync. – Population evolves to breed in sync.

Great Tits Prey and reproductive timing

•  Dutch Birds became out of sync with prey over 32 years.

•  British birds and caterpillars changes dates in synchrony over 47 years.

6/19/18

20

MA Wildflower Blooming

Dates

Concord, Ma Temperature Change

Spring

Yearly

Temperature and flowering date.

Kyoto Japan Cherry Blossoms

6/19/18

21

Global declines of caribou.

34 of 43 declining.
 


Average decline 57%.

6/19/18

22

Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations

•  Habitat fragmentation. •  Habitat fragmentation. •  Arctic Warming.

–  Increase in extreme weather events. •  Freezing rain.

Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations

•  Habitat fragmentation. •  Arctic Warming.

–  Increase in extreme weather events. •  Freezing rain.

–  Phenology mismatch. •  Birth of young and vegetation peak out of synchrony

Stressors on Caribou and Reindeer populations

6/19/18

23

The big picture

N

N

Solutions to climate change conservation impacts

•  Mitigation. –  Decrease atmospheric inputs of CO2. –  Geoengineering.

•  Adaptation. –  Conventional conservation approaches. –  Migration corridors. –  Assisted migration.

92