One of PLEs manufacturing plants supplies various engine components to manufacturers of motorcycles on a Just In Time basis. Pla

 

One of PLE’s manufacturing plants supplies various engine components to manufacturers of motorcycles on a Just In Time basis. Planned production capacity for one component is 100 units per shift, and the plant operates one shift per day. Because of fluctuations in customers’ assembly operations, however, demand fluctuates and is historically between 80 and 130 units per day. To maintain sufficient inventory to meet its Just In Time commitments, PLE’s management is considering a policy to run a second shift the next day if inventory falls to 50 or below at the end of a day (after the daily demand is known). For the annual budget-planning process, managers need to know how many additional shifts will be needed. The fundamental equation that governs this process each day is:

ending inventory = beginning inventory + production − demand ending inventory = beginning inventory + production − demand

Develop a spreadsheet model to simulate 260 working days (one year), and count the number of additional shifts that are required. Assume that the initial inventory is 100 units. Use psi functions for all uncertain cells in building your model. Using the number of additional shifts required as the output cell for a Monte Carlo simulation, find the distribution of the number of shifts that the company can expect to need over the next year. Explain and summarize your findings in a report to the plant manager and make a recommendation as to how many shifts to plan in next year’s budget. Upload your Word document AND your Excel worksheet file 

Dealer Satisfaction

Dealer Satisfaction
Survey Scale: 0 1 2 3 4 5 Sample
North America Size
2010 1 0 2 14 22 11 50
2011 0 0 2 14 20 14 50
2012 1 1 1 8 34 15 60
2013 1 2 6 12 34 45 100
2014 2 3 5 15 44 56 125
South America
2010 0 0 0 2 6 2 10
2011 0 0 0 2 6 2 10
2012 0 0 1 4 11 14 30
2013 0 1 1 3 12 33 50
2014 1 1 2 4 22 60 90
Europe
2010 0 0 1 3 7 4 15
2011 0 0 1 2 8 4 15
2012 0 0 1 2 15 7 25
2013 0 0 1 2 21 6 30
2014 0 0 1 4 17 8 30
Pacific Rim
2010 0 0 1 2 2 0 5
2011 0 0 1 1 3 0 5
2012 0 0 1 1 3 1 6
2013 0 0 0 2 5 3 10
2014 0 0 1 2 7 2 12
China
2012 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
2013 0 0 1 4 2 0 7
2014 0 0 1 5 8 2 16

Dealer Satisfaction by Region and Year

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 2 2 1 6 5 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 14 14 8 12 15 2 2 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 1 4 5 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 22 20 34 34 44 6 6 11 12 22 7 8 15 21 17 2 3 3 5 7 0 2 8 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 11 14 15 45 56 2 2 14 33 60 4 4 7 6 8 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 2

This chart is showing Dealer Satisfaction between North America, South America, Europe, Pacific Rim and China. The data that was selected was rated on a a survery scale from 0-5 and between the the years of 2010-2014, except for China who started later in 2012. North America was leading in sample size and "in 5s" dealer satisfacion for "excelltence". Although North America recieved the highest total numbers in dealer satisfactions for excellent rankings, in 2014, South America recieved 60 surverys and North America recieved 56 within the level 5 category.

End-User Satisfaction

End-User Satisfaction
Sample
North America 0 1 2 3 4 5 Size
2010 1 3 6 15 37 38 100
2011 1 2 4 18 35 40 100
2012 1 2 5 17 34 41 100
2013 0 2 4 15 33 46 100
2014 0 2 3 15 31 49 100
South America
2010 1 2 5 18 36 38 100
2011 1 3 6 17 36 37 100
2012 0 2 6 19 37 36 100
2013 0 2 5 20 37 36 100
2014 0 2 5 19 37 37 100
Europe
2010 1 2 4 21 36 36 100
2011 1 2 5 21 34 37 100
2012 1 1 4 26 37 31 100
2013 1 1 3 17 41 37 100
2014 0 1 2 19 45 33 100
Pacific Rim
2010 2 3 5 15 41 34 100
2011 1 2 7 15 41 34 100
2012 1 2 5 16 40 36 100
2013 0 2 4 17 40 37 100
2014 0 1 3 19 42 35 100
China
2012 0 3 3 6 28 10 50
2013 1 2 2 4 30 11 50
2014 0 1 1 3 31 14 50

End-User Satisfaction by Region and Year

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 6 4 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 5 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 15 18 17 15 15 18 17 19 20 19 21 21 26 17 19 15 15 16 17 19 6 4 3 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 37 35 34 33 31 36 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41 45 41 41 40 40 42 28 30 31 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South America 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Europe 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pacific Rim 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China 2012 2013 2014 38 40 41 46 49 38 37 36 36 37 36 37 31 37 33 34 34 36 37 35 10 11 14

This chart is showing End-User Satisfaction between North America, South America, Europe, Pacific Rim and China. The data that was selected was rated on a a survery scale from 0-5 and between the the years of 2010-2014, except for China who started later in 2012. North America, South America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim all have the same sample size of 100 for each year between 2010 through 2014. China has a smaller sample size of 50 between the years of 2012 through 2014. You can see that the ratings of 5's, 4's, and 3's are the highest ratings. North America's rating of 4 decreases every year starting with 2010 while the 5 ratings increase through the years. The Pacfic Rim's 4 ratings are highest rated and is basically constant throughout the years while the 5 ratings are lower then 4 ratings the 5's are constant throughout the years.

Complaints

Complaints
Month World NA SA Eur Pac China
Jan-10 169 102 12 52 3
Feb-10 187 115 13 55 4
Mar-10 210 128 15 61 6
Apr-10 226 136 16 67 7
May-10 232 137 17 73 5
Jun-10 261 151 19 82 9
Jul-10 245 140 18 80 7
Aug-10 223 128 16 76 3
Sep-10 195 103 15 73 4
Oct-10 174 96 14 62 2
Nov-10 154 84 11 59 0
Dec-10 163 99 9 54 1
Jan-11 195 123 10 59 3
Feb-11 221 141 13 62 5
Mar-11 240 152 16 66 6
Apr-11 264 163 20 70 11
May-11 283 178 22 75 8
Jun-11 296 170 28 86 12
Jul-11 269 153 25 81 10
Aug-11 256 146 23 79 8
Sep-11 231 131 20 73 7
Oct-11 214 125 16 68 5
Nov-11 201 118 13 66 4
Dec-11 171 96 11 61 3
Jan-12 200 112 15 66 4 3
Feb-12 216 117 18 71 6 4
Mar-12 234 126 20 76 9 3
Apr-12 253 138 23 79 11 2
May-12 282 152 26 85 14 5
Jun-12 305 163 30 91 15 6
Jul-12 296 156 28 89 18 5
Aug-12 279 148 26 86 15 4
Sep-12 266 143 24 82 13 4
Oct-12 243 131 21 76 12 3
Nov-12 232 128 18 73 10 3
Dec-12 203 107 15 70 7 4
Jan-13 216 110 19 74 8 5
Feb-13 239 123 23 79 10 4
Mar-13 266 138 26 83 13 6
Apr-13 284 150 30 88 11 5
May-13 315 169 33 91 15 7
Jun-13 340 181 37 95 19 8
Jul-13 319 169 34 92 17 7
Aug-13 304 160 32 90 15 7
Sep-13 277 141 29 87 14 6
Oct-13 250 123 26 83 12 6
Nov-13 228 112 24 77 10 5
Dec-13 213 105 23 74 7 4
Jan-14 240 121 26 80 8 5
Feb-14 251 126 28 82 10 5
Mar-14 281 148 31 85 12 5
Apr-14 298 155 35 89 13 6
May-14 322 168 39 95 12 8
Jun-14 350 183 43 98 15 11
Jul-14 330 170 41 95 14 10
Aug-14 311 158 38 93 13 9
Sep-14 289 149 33 89 11 7
Oct-14 265 136 30 85 8 6
Nov-14 239 121 26 80 7 5
Dec-14 219 108 23 76 7 5

Complaints by Month and Region

World 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 169 187 210 226 232 261 245 223 195 174 154 163 195 221 240 264 283 296 269 256 231 214 201 171 200 216 234 253 282 305 296 279 266 243 232 203 216 239 266 284 315 340 319 304 277 250 228 213 240 251 281 298 322 350 330 311 289 265 239 219 NA 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 102 115 128 136 137 151 140 128 103 96 84 99 123 141 152 163 178 170 153 146 131 125 118 96 112 117 126 138 152 163 156 148 143 131 128 107 110 123 138 150 169 181 169 160 141 123 112 105 121 126 148 155 168 183 170 158 149 136 121 108 SA 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 12 13 15 16 17 19 18 16 15 14 11 9 10 13 16 20 22 28 25 23 20 16 13 11 15 18 20 23 26 30 28 26 24 21 18 15 19 23 26 30 33 37 34 32 29 26 24 23 26 28 31 35 39 43 41 38 33 30 26 23 Eur 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 52 55 61 67 73 82 80 76 73 62 59 54 59 62 66 70 75 86 81 79 73 68 66 61 66 71 76 79 85 91 89 86 82 76 73 70 74 79 83 88 91 95 92 90 87 83 77 74 80 82 85 89 95 98 95 93 89 85 80 76 Pac 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 3 4 6 7 5 9 7 3 4 2 0 1 3 5 6 11 8 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 4 6 9 11 14 15 18 15 13 12 10 7 8 10 13 11 15 19 17 15 14 12 10 7 8 10 12 13 12 15 14 13 11 8 7 7 China 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 3 4 3 2 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 6 5 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 8 11 10 9 7 6 5 5

This chart is showing PLE's Complaints from registered customers each month within PLE's 5 regions. From this data we can conclude that there is more use of the equipment in the summer months because of the higher number of complaints recieved. China has the fewest number of compaints, this is due to the less customer usage. Based off the data, the Pacific Rim and South America do not have as many complaints as North America does due to less people using or purchasing PLE's equipment. .

Mower Unit Sales

Mower Unit Sales
Month NA SA Europe Pacific China World
Jan-10 6000 200 720 100 0 7020
Feb-10 7950 220 990 120 0 9280
Mar-10 8100 250 1320 110 0 9780
Apr-10 9050 280 1650 120 0 11100
May-10 9900 310 1590 130 0 11930
Jun-10 10200 300 1620 120 0 12240
Jul-10 8730 280 1590 140 0 10740
Aug-10 8140 250 1560 130 0 10080
Sep-10 6480 230 1590 130 0 8430
Oct-10 5990 220 1320 120 0 7650
Nov-10 5320 210 990 130 0 6650
Dec-10 4640 180 660 140 0 5620
Jan-11 5980 210 690 140 0 7020
Feb-11 7620 240 1020 150 0 9030
Mar-11 8370 250 1290 140 0 10050
Apr-11 8830 290 1620 150 0 10890
May-11 9310 330 1650 130 0 11420
Jun-11 10230 310 1590 140 0 12270
Jul-11 8720 290 1560 150 0 10720
Aug-11 7710 270 1530 140 0 9650
Sep-11 6320 250 1590 150 0 8310
Oct-11 5840 250 1260 160 0 7510
Nov-11 4960 240 900 150 0 6250
Dec-11 4350 210 660 150 0 5370
Jan-12 6020 220 570 160 0 6970
Feb-12 7920 250 840 150 0 9160
Mar-12 8430 270 1110 160 0 9970
Apr-12 9040 310 1500 170 0 11020
May-12 9820 360 1440 160 0 11780
Jun-12 10370 330 1410 170 0 12280
Jul-12 9050 310 1440 160 0 10960
Aug-12 7620 300 1410 170 0 9500
Sep-12 6420 280 1350 180 0 8230
Oct-12 5890 270 1080 180 0 7420
Nov-12 5340 260 840 190 0 6630
Dec-12 4430 230 510 180 0 5350
Jan-13 6100 250 480 200 0 7030
Feb-13 8010 270 750 190 0 9220
Mar-13 8430 280 1140 200 0 10050
Apr-13 9110 320 1410 210 0 11050
May-13 9730 380 1340 190 0 11640
Jun-13 10120 360 1360 200 0 12040
Jul-13 9080 320 1410 200 0 11010
Aug-13 7820 310 1490 210 0 9830
Sep-13 6540 300 1310 220 0 8370
Oct-13 6010 290 980 210 0 7490
Nov-13 5270 270 770 220 0 6530
Dec-13 5380 260 430 230 0 6300
Jan-14 6210 270 400 200 0 7080
Feb-14 8030 280 750 190 0 9250
Mar-14 8540 300 970 210 0 10020
Apr-14 9120 340 1310 220 5 10995
May-14 9570 390 1260 200 16 11436
Jun-14 10230 380 1240 210 22 12082
Jul-14 9580 350 1300 230 26 11486
Aug-14 7680 340 1250 220 14 9504
Sep-14 6870 320 1210 220 15 8635
Oct-14 5930 310 970 230 11 7451
Nov-14 5260 300 650 240 3 6453
Dec-14 4830 290 300 230 1 5651

Mower Unit Sales by Month and Region

NA 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 6000 7950 8100 9050 9900 10200 8730 8140 6480 5990 5320 4640 5980 7620 8370 8830 9310 10230 8720 7710 6320 5840 4960 4350 6020 7920 8430 9040 9820 10370 9050 7620 6420 5890 5340 4430 6100 8010 8430 9110 9730 10120 9080 7820 6540 6010 5270 5380 6210 8030 8540 9120 9570 10230 9580 7680 6870 5930 5260 4830 SA 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 200 220 250 280 310 300 280 250 230 220 210 180 210 240 250 290 330 310 290 270 250 250 240 210 220 250 270 310 360 330 310 300 280 270 260 230 250 270 280 320 380 360 320 310 300 290 270 260 270 280 300 340 390 380 350 340 320 310 300 290 Europe 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 720 990 1320 1650 1590 1620 1590 1560 1590 1320 990 660 690 1020 1290 1620 1650 1590 1560 1530 1590 1260 900 660 570 840 1110 1500 1440 1410 1440 1410 1350 1080 840 510 480 750 1140 1410 1340 1360 1410 1490 1310 980 770 430 400 750 970 1310 1260 1240 1300 1250 1210 970 650 300 Pacific 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 100 120 110 120 130 120 140 130 130 120 130 140 140 150 140 150 130 140 150 140 150 160 150 150 160 150 160 170 160 170 160 170 180 180 190 180 200 190 200 210 190 200 200 210 220 210 220 230 200 190 210 220 200 210 230 220 220 230 240 230 China 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 41699 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 22 26 14 15 11 3 1 World 40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513 40544 40575 40603 40634 40664 40695 40725 40756 40787 40817 40848 40878 40909 40940 40969 41000 41030 41061 41091 41122 41153 41183 41214 41244 41275 41306 41334 41365 41395 41426 41456 41487 41518 41548 41579 41609 41640 41671 416 99 41730 41760 41791 41821 41852 41883 41913 41944 41974 7020 9280 9780 11100 11930 12240 10740 10080 8430 7650 6650 5620 7020 9030 10050 10890 11420 12270 10720 9650 8310 7510 6250 5370 6970 9160 9970 11020 11780 12280 10960 9500 8230 7420 6630 5350 7030 9220 10050 11050 11640 12040 11010 9830 8370 7490 6530 6300 7080 9250 10020 10995 11436 12082 11486 9504 8635 7451 6453 5651

The chart identifies the unit sales on PLE's mower equipment. We can see that the highest peak for mower sales is in the summer months and then a decline in sales starting in early fall months. Looking at the chart, North America is the region with the highest unit sales for PLE's mowers.

Tractor Unit Sales

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Tractor Unit Sales
Month NA SA Eur Pac China World
Jan-10 570 250 560 212 0 1592
Feb-10 611 270 600 230 0 1711
Mar-10 630 260 680 240 0 1810
Apr-10 684 270 650 263 0 1867
May-10 650 280 580 269 0 1779
Jun-10 600 270 590 280 0 1740
Jul-10 512 264 760 290 0 1826
Aug-10 500 280 645 270 0 1695
Sep-10 478 290