Decision Analysis
Part 2:
Show your work and explain your process for determining the solution for each of these problems on a word document with the solution given below the problem.
If Excel was used, please indicate that as well on the word document.
A word document and/or the Excel Workbook (if used) should be submitted to the Dropbox with labels on the worksheets to indicate which problem is being evaluated.
All answers should be clearly indicated.
Written explanation, reasoning, and rationale should use complete sentences.
For this part of the assessment, you will compose a reflective essay in a word document to address the following scenario and questions:
Scenario: You are a business owner faced with an important decision that could potentially be very lucrative. Keep in mind the Six Steps in Decision Making as you set-up your decision analysis. See Example and CA Starter video in LiveBinder.
Identify factors in a decision-making environment
What is the problem and objective of this decision?
Identify at least 3 alternatives and 3 states of nature.
Interpret decisions made under uncertainty.
Create a decision table in Excel.
Identify the potential payoff/losses for each alternative and state of nature and include in your decision table.
Choose two decision strategies and determine the best alternative: (Clearly state the best alternative for each strategy.)
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
Why did you choose the two strategies? What are the results of the best alternative? What is your final decision?
Demonstrate college-level communication through the composition of original materials in Standard English.
After you have contemplated the questions for number 1 and 2, draft your reflective essay. Every piece of writing should have an introduction, body, and conclusion.
A good way to plan this particular reflective essay is to write an introduction to the essay.
Next, write at least three body paragraphs and address each of the points listed above.
End your essay with a conclusion paragraph tying all of your ideas together.
The essay should be at least five paragraphs in length and a minimum of 350 words.
Respond to the questions in a thorough manner in parts 1 and 2, providing specific examples of concepts, topics, definitions, and other elements asked for in the questions. Your paper should be highly organized, logical, and focused.
Your paper must be written in Standard English and demonstrate exceptional content, organization, style, and grammar and mechanics.
Your paper should provide a clearly established and sustained viewpoint and purpose.
Your writing should be well ordered, logical and unified, as well as original and insightful.
A separate page at the end of your research paper should contain a list of references, in APA format. Use your textbook, the Library, and the internet for research.
Be sure to include in-text citations and their reference entries on the References page in APA style. Your sources and content should follow proper APA citation style. Review the APA formatting and citation style found in the Writing Center. To access the Writing Center, select this link. (It should include a cover sheet, paper is double spaced, in Times New Roman 12-point font, correct citations, Standard English with no spelling or punctuation errors, and correct references at the bottom of the last page.)
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