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2-0 Chapter 2 Risk Management Process First reckon, then risk Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke This chapter provides the essence of the five-step risk management process. It illustrates the application of each step to military operations through the factors of METT-T. THE FIVE STEPS: AN OVERVIEW Risk management is the process of identifying and controlling hazards to conserve combat power and resources. The five steps of risk management are— • Step 1. Identify hazards. • Step 2. Assess hazards to determine risks. • Step 3. Develop controls and make risk decisions. • Step 4. Implement controls. • Step 5. Supervise and evaluate. This five-step process is integrated into the military decision-making process as shown in Figure 2-1. FM 100-40 provides insight into the context in which the risk management process is applied herein. Areas of particular interest in FM 100-40 include— • Solving tactical problems (Chapter 1). • The science and art of tactics (Chapter 1). • Hasty versus deliberate operations (Chapter 1). • The plan-prepare-execute cycle (Chapter 1). • Basic tactical control measures (Chapter 2). • The factors of METT-T (Chapter 2).

FM 100-14 2-1 Mission Receipt Mission Analysis COA Development COA Analysis COA Comparison COA Approval Orders Production Rehearsal1 Execution and1 Assessment Step 1 IdentifyHazards Step 2 Assess Hazards Step 3 Develop Controls and Make Risk Decision Step 4 Implement Controls Step 5 Supervise and EvaluateMilitary Decision- Making Process X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Risk Management Steps X X X X X X 1All boxes are marked to emphasize the continued use of the risk management process throughout the mission Risk decisions should be based upon awareness rather than mechanical habit. Leaders should act on a keen appreciation for the essential factors that make each situation unique instead of from conditioned response. Throughout the entire operational continuum, the commander must consider US Government civilians and contract support personnel in his risk management process. Hazards can exist, regardless of enemy or adversary actions, in areas with no direct enemy contact and in areas outside the enemy’s or adversary’s Figure 2-1. Risk Management Steps Correlated with Military Decision-Making Tasks

Risk Management 2-2 influence. The two types of risk that exist across the wide range of Army operations are tactical risks and accident risks. • Tactical risk is risk concerned with hazards that exist because of the presence of either the enemy or an adversary. It applies to all levels of war and across the spectrum of operations. • Accident risk includes all operational risk considerations other than tactical risk. It includes risks to the friendly force. It also includes risks posed to civilians by an operation, as well as an operations impact on the environment. It can include activities associated with hazards concerning friendly personnel, civilians, equipment readiness, and environmental conditions. STEPS 1 AND 2 Steps 1 and 2 together comprise the risk assessment. In Step 1, individuals identify the hazards that may be encountered in executing a mission. In Step 2, they determine the direct impact of each hazard on the operation. The risk assessment provides for enhanced situational awareness. This awareness builds confidence and allows soldiers and units to take timely, efficient, and effective protective measures. STEPS 3 THROUGH 5 Steps 3 through 5 are the essential follow-through actions to effectively manage risk. In these steps, leaders balance risk against costs—political, economic, environmental, and to combat power— and take appropriate actions to eliminate unnecessary risk. During execution, as well as during planning and preparation, leaders continuously assess the risk to the overall mission and to those involved in the task. Finally, leaders and individuals evaluate the effectiveness of controls and provide lessons learned so that others may benefit from the experience. THE FIVE STEPS APPLIED STEP 1. IDENTIFY HAZARDS A hazard is an actual or potential condition where the following can occur due to exposure to the hazard: • Injury, illness, or death of personnel. • Damage to or loss of equipment and property. • Mission degradation.

FM 100-14 2-3 Hazards are sources of danger or risks due to enemy or adversary presence and other conditions not due to enemy or adversary capabilities. Hazards are found in all operational environments. Combat operations, stability operations, base support operations, and training present unique hazards for units involved in these kinds of missions. Hazards are identified during the first four steps of the military decision-making process: mission receipt, mission analysis, COA development , and COA analysis . The ability of unit leaders and staffs to identify hazards is key. One reality of today’s missions is that the aspect of a hazard can change rapidly. Things of little risk initially can quickly become major threats due to unforeseen natural or man-made events. Leaders should be aware of this possibility. Complacency to the fact that existing controls may not continue to control hazards in rapidly changing situations should be viewed as a hazard in itself. The factors of METT-T provide a sound framework for identifying hazards when planning, preparing, and executing operations. When applying risk management to METT-T during mission analysis, leaders and staffs should look for hazards that affect both tactical and accident risks. They must identify all hazards that may present significant risks to the mission. Mission Leaders first analyze the assigned mission. They look at the type of mission to be accomplished and consider possible subsequent missions. Certain kinds of operations are inherently more dangerous than others. For example, a deliberate frontal attack, because of the associated movement, is more likely to expose a unit to losses than would a defense from prepared positions. Identifying missions that routinely present great risk is imperative. Leaders also look for hazards associated with complexity of the plan such as— • A scheme of maneuver that is difficult to understand or too complex for accurate communications down to the lowest level. • The impact of operating under a fragmentary order (FRAGO). Enemy Commanders look for enemy capabilities that pose significant hazards to the operation. For example, “What can the enemy do to

Risk Management 2-4 defeat my operation?” Common shortfalls that can create hazards during operations against an enemy include failure to— • Assess potential advantages to the enemy provided by the battlefield environment. • Fully assess the enemy’s capabilities. • Understand enemy collection capabilities and friendly vulnerabilities to those capabilities. • Accurately determine the enemy’s probable COAs. • Plan and coordinate active ground and aerial reconnaissance activities. • Disseminate intelligence about the enemy to lower levels. • Identifying terrorist threats and capabilities. Intelligence plays a critical part in identifying hazards associated with tactical risk. Intelligence-preparation-of-the-battlefield (IPB) is a dynamic staff process that continually integrates new information and intelligence that ultimately becomes input to the commander ’s risk assessment process. Intelligence assists in identifying hazards during operations by— • Identifying the opportunities and constraints the battlefield environment offers to threat and friendly forces. • Thoroughly portraying threat capabilities and vulnerabilities. • Collecting information on populations, governments, and infrastructures. FMs 34-130 and 34-60, respectively, provide detailed information on IPB and on counterintelligence operations and multidiscipline counterintelligence analysis. Terrain and Weather In addition to those due to the enemy or adversaries, the most obvious hazards to military operations are due to terrain and weather. Terrain and weather affect the type of hazard encountered. When the enemy uses terrain to his advantage, the risk is clearly tactical. The aspects of terrain and weather may create situations where accident risks predominate. When looking at this from a purely mission perspective, familiarity of the unit with the terrain and its associated environment must be paramount. Basic issues include— • How long the unit has operated in the environment and climate. • Whether the terrain has been crossed before.

FM 100-14 2-5 Terrain. The five main military aspects of terrain— observation and fields of fire, cover and concealment, obstacles, key terrain and decisive terrain, and avenues of approach (OCOKA)— can be used to identify and assess hazards impacting on friendly forces. Chapter 2 of FM 100-40 has details on OCOKA. The terrain analysis includes both map and on-the- ground reconnaissance to identify how well unit capabilities and mission demands can be accommodated by the terrain. • Observation and fields of fire. Hazards associated with this usually involve when the enemy will be able to engage a friendly unit and when friendly unit weapons capabilities allow it to effectively engage the enemy. • Cover and concealment. Hazards associated with cover and concealment are created by the enemy’s ability to place direct or indirect fire on friendly forces. • Obstacles. Hazards associated with obstacles may be accident or tactical. They may be due to natural conditions such as rivers or swamps or man-made such as minefields or built-up areas. • Key terrain and decisive terrain. Hazards are a marked advantage terrain provides to the enemy if he controls such terrain or denies its use to friendly forces. • Avenues of approach. Hazards associated with avenues of approach can affect both tactical and accident risks. Such hazards include conditions where an avenue of approach impedes deployment of friendly combat power or where it supports deployment of enemy combat power. Weather. Weather works hand-in-hand with terrain to create hazards. To identify weather hazards, leaders and soldiers must assess the impact on operating systems. Mistakes include not considering the— • Adverse effects of heat and cold hazards on the performance of soldiers. • Effects of climate and weather on maintenance of vehicles and equipment before beginning an operation. • Hazardous effects of weather on the five military aspects of terrain.

Risk Management 2-6 Troops Leaders analyze the capabilities of available friendly troops. A s s o c i a t e d h a z a rd s i m p a c t b o t h t h e s o l d i e r a n d u n i t . K e y considerations are level of training, manning levels, the condition and maintenance of vehicles and equipment, morale, availability of supplies and services, and the physical and emotional health of soldiers. Leaders and soldiers must be vigilant to the fact that hazards in these areas can adversely affect a mission, even when all tactical considerations point to success. Mission failure can be caused by— • Hazards to the physical and emotional health of soldiers. Inadequate sanitation facilities, water purification capabilities, medical attention, and evacuation capabilities are key hazards that can arise from incomplete logistical planning. Care of troops requires long-range projections of all classes of supply, with close monitoring of mission changes that could impact availability or depletion of supplies. When beginning an operation immediately upon arriving in theater, hazards include not implementing measures to help soldiers overcome fatigue or acclimatize them to the geographical area and associated climate. • Hazards to task organization or units participating in an operation. Hazards include how long units have worked together under a particular command relationship. During stability operations, task organizations may change often. Hazards include poor communication, unfamiliarity with higher headquarters SOPs, and insufficient combat power to accomplish the mission. • Hazards associated with long-term missions. Long-term missions include nation building, peacekeeping, or insurgency/ counterinsurgency operations. Hazards associated with these missions include the turmoil of personnel turnover, lack of continuity of leadership, inexperience, and lack of knowledge of the situation and the unit’s operating procedures. An especially insidious hazard is critical-skills atrophy that results from not performing METL-related missions. Time Available The hazard is insufficient time to plan, prepare, and execute operations. Planning time is always at a premium. Leaders routinely apply the one-third/two-thirds rule to ensure their subordinate units are given maximum time to plan. Failure to accomplish a mission on

FM 100-14 2-7 time can result in shortages of time for subordinate and adjacent units to accomplish their mission. Civilians The commander ’s legal responsibility is to consider hazards to, and safeguarding of, civilians in his area of operations. Civilians include nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), private voluntary organizations (PVOs), US Government civilians, foreign national civilians, the media, and dislocated civilians put at risk by military operations. The commander must consider hazards that can occur across the range of operations, such as— • In a wartime environment. The commander must consider the hazard of collateral damage which may result in creating new adversaries. • In a peacetime environment. The commander must consider the political attitudes and previous actions of civilians in identifying hazards to friendly forces and the populace itself. Adversaries are hostile elements other than the enemy that may be encountered during any operation. They present additional hazards. They may be organized opposition or individuals that challenge authority. They may include such diverse elements as rioters, criminals, rogues, or gangs that might want to harass a peace enforcement mission. STEP 2. ASSESS HAZARDS Step 2 completes the risk assessment. Risk is the chance of hazard or bad consequences. This step examines each hazard in terms of probability and severity to determine the risk level of one or more hazardous incidents that can result from exposure to the hazard. This step is conducted during three steps of the military decision-making process— mission analysis, COA development, and COA analysis. This step is also conducted after controls are developed. The incident must be credible in that it must have a reasonable expectation of happening. The end result is an estimate of risk from each hazard and an estimate of the overall risk to the mission caused by hazards that cannot be eliminated. Leaders must also assess the risk to civilians posed by the operation. They may need to assess the operations’ impact on the environment. This step is conducted in three substeps.

Risk Management 2-8 Substep A Leaders and staffs assess each hazard in relation to the probability of a hazardous incident. The probability levels estimated for each hazard may be based on the mission, COAs being developed and analyzed, or frequency of a similar event. Figure 2-2 provides a summary of the five degrees of probability. The letters in parentheses following each degree (A through E) provide a symbol for depicting probability. For example, the letter A represents frequent probability. FREQUENT (A) Occurs very often, continuously experienced Single item Occurs very often in service life. Expected to occur several times over duration of a specific mission or operation. Always occurs. Fleet or inventory of items Occurs continuously during a specific mission or operation, or over a service life. Individual soldier Occurs very often in career. Expected to occur several times during mission or operation. Always occurs. All soldiers exposed Occurs continuously during a specific mission or operation. LIKELY (B) Occurs several times Single item Occurs several times in service life. Expected to occur during a specific mission or operation. Fleet or inventory of items Occurs at a high rate, but experienced intermittently (regular intervals, generally often,). Individual soldier Occurs several times in career. Expected to occur during a specific mission or operation. All soldiers exposed Occurs at a high rate, but experienced intermittently. OCCASIONAL (C) Occurs sporadically Single item Occurs some time in service life. May occur about as often as not during a specific mission or operation. Fleet or inventory of items Occurs several times in service life. Individual soldier Occurs some time in career. May occur during a specific mission or operation, but not often. All soldiers exposed Occurs sporadically (irregularly, sparsely, or sometimes). Figure 2-2. Hazard Probability

FM 100-14 2-9 Figure 2-2. Hazard Probability (continued) Substep B Substep B addresses the severity of each hazard. It is expressed in terms of— • Degree of injury or illness. • Loss of or damage to equipment or property. • Environmental damage. • Other mission-impairing factors such as lost combat power. The degree of severity estimated for each hazard may be based on knowledge of the results of similar past events. Figure 2-3 provides a summary of the four degrees of hazard severity. The Roman numerals in parentheses following each degree (I through IV) provide a convenient symbol for depicting severity. For example, I represents the catastrophic degree of severity. SELDOM (D) Remotely possible; could occur at some time Single item Occurs in service life, but only remotely possible. Not expected to occur during a specific mission or operation. Fleet or inventory of items Occurs as isolated incidents. Possible to occur some time in service life, but rarely. Usually does not occur. Individual soldier Occurs as isolated incident during a career. Remotely possible, but not expected to occur during a specific mission or operation. All soldiers exposed Occurs rarely within exposed population as isolated incidents. UNLIKELY (E) Can assume will not occur, but not impossible Single item Occurrence not impossible, but can assume will almost never occur in service life. Can assume will not occur during a specific mission or operation. Fleet or inventory of items Occurs very rarely (almost never or improbable). Incidents may occur over service life. Individual soldier Occurrence not impossible, but may assume will not occur in career or during a specific mission or operation. All soldiers exposed Occurs very rarely, but not impossible.

Risk Management 2-10 CATASTROPHIC (I) Loss of ability to accomplish the mission or mission failure. Death or permanent total disability (accident risk). Loss of major or mission-critical system or equipment. Major p r o p e r t y ( f a c i l i t y ) d a m a g e . S e v e r e environmental damage. Mission-critical security failure. Unacceptable collateral damage. CRITICAL (II) Significantly (severely) degraded mission capability or unit readiness. Permanent partial disability, temporary total disability exceeding 3 months time (accident risk). Extensive (major) damage to equipment or systems. Significant damage to property or t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . S e c u r i t y f a i l u r e . Significant collateral damage. MARGINAL (III) Degraded mission capability or unit readiness. Minor damage to equipment or systems, property, or the environment. Lost day due to injury or illness not exceeding 3 months (accident risk). Minor damage to property or the environment. NEGLIGIBLE (IV) Little or no adverse impact on mission capability. First aid or minor medical treatment (accident risk). Slight equipment or system damage, but fully functional and s e r v i c e a bl e. L i t t l e o r n o p r o p e r t y o r environmental damage. Figure 2-3. Hazard Severity Substep C In this substep leaders and staffs expand what they understand about probable hazardous incidents into estimates of levels of risk for each identified hazard and an estimate of the overall risk for the operation. Estimating risk follows from examining the outcomes of Substeps A and B; that is, both the probability and severity of hazardous incidents. This substep is more art than science. Much depends on the use of historical lessons learned, intuitive analysis,

FM 100-14 2-11 Risk Assessment Matrix Probability Severity Frequent A Likely B Occasional C Seldom D Unlikely E Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible I II III IV E E H M E H M L H H M L H M L L M L L L E – H – M – L – Extremely High Risk High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk experience, and judgment. Uncertainty can arise in the assessment of both the probability and severity of a hazardous incident. Uncertainty results from unknowns about a situation; from incomplete, inaccurate, undependable, or contradictory information; and from unforeseen circumstances. Therefore, assessment of risk requires good judgment. Figure 2-4 is a standardized matrix that can be used to assist in this process. Leaders and staffs enter the estimated degree of severity and probability for each hazard in Substeps A and B from the severity row and probability column, respectively. The point where the severity row and probability column intersect defines the level of risk. For example, if the hazard is estimated to have a critical severity (II) and a likely probability (B), the level of risk is high (H). Figure 2-5 provides a summary of the levels of risk. It also provides examples of hazardous incidents for each risk level. Several examples illustrate the trade-off between tactical and accident risks. Figure 2-4. Risk Assessment Matrix

Risk Management 2-12 E – E x t r e m e l y H i g h : Loss of ability to accomplish the mission if hazardsoccur during mission. A frequent or likely probability of catastrophic loss(IA or IB) or frequent probability of critical loss (IIA) exists. E x a m p l e : A commander finds that one of his implied tasks to attack anobjective involves crossing a normally shallow riverbed. After looking at the factors of METT-T, he discovers that three days of intense rain have raised the water level to rise above flood stage, with currents far in excess of his ability to safely ford with armored vehicles. After discussing COAs with his staff, he determines the accident risk is extremely high because of the likely probability and catastrophic severity of losing vehicles and killing soldiers. His conclusions are based on his experience with and knowledge of fording armored vehicles under the existing conditions of water depth and current speed. H – H i g h : Significant degradation of mission capabilities in terms of therequired mission standard, inability to accomplish all parts of the mission, or inability to complete the mission to standard if hazards occur during the mission. Occasional to seldom probability ofcatastrophic loss (IC or ID) exists. A likely to occasional probabilityexists of a critical loss (IIB or IIC) occurring. Frequent probability of marginal losses (IIIA) exists. E x a m p l e : During a preplanned ambush, the leader discovers that theforce he intends to ambush has significantly more combat power than his own force can accommodate. He realizes that he could only delay rather than destroy the enemy. He knows his casualty estimates would be very high if the enemy reorganized and counterattacked. He also knows that the size of the enemy force could seriously impact adjacent units conducting a movement to contact. He determines the situation is high risk because he estimates (based on his training and experience)t h e r e i s a l i ke l y p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e e n e my r e o r g a n i z i n g a n d counterattacking and the severity of loss to his unit would be critical. M – M o d e r a t e : Expected degraded mission capabilities in terms of therequired mission standard will have a reduced mission capability if hazards occur during mission. An unlikely probability of catastrophicloss (IE) exists. The probability of a critical loss is seldom (IID). Marginal losses occur with a likely or occasional probability (IIIB or IIIC). A frequent probability of negligible (IVA) losses exists. E x a m p l e : A commander in a defensive position receives a warning orderto be prepared to counterattack if the enemy attacks again. He chooses to use pre-positioned ammunition caches to support his defense, as opposed to moving his ammunition resupply forward by truck. He determines that the severity of not having an immediate resupply of ammunition available during the counterattack will have a critical impacton his combat power. He realizes that if the enemy forces him to abandon his forward positions, the severity of the loss of his Figure 2-5. Levels of Risk

FM 100-14 2-13 ammunition caches will critically impact his combat power. Heconsiders that his unit is deployed in excellent defensive positions. He has repelled two attacks that resulted in the destruction of an estimated 50 percent of the enemy’s combat power. He receives information that the probability of the enemy attacking is likely , but that the probabilityof the enemy being reinforced and attacking in overwhelming force is remote (seldom) . The commander concludes that the risk of conductinga counterattack with limited ammunition is greater than the moderate risk of the enemy pushing him back. L – L o w : Expected losses have little or no impact on accomplishing themission. The probability of critical loss is unlikely (IIE), while that of marginal loss is seldom (IIID) or unlikely (IIIE). The probability of a negligible loss is likely or less (IVB through (IVE). E x a m p l e : A mechanized task force (TF) conducting a movement tocontact in a desert environment is overtaken by nightfall before reaching its limit of advance (LOA). The terrain along the axis of advance is flat and open. Visibility is about 800 meters under a clear sky illuminated by a full moon. Estimates put the enemy, which has been hastily withdrawing for the past three days, at approximately 30 percent strength. Contact has been light with no defensible terrain along the TF’s axis. The TF commander considers all the factors. In addition, the TF is 100 percent operational in using night vision devices. The TF commander estimates that it is unlikely that his unit will incur losses ofcritical severity by being surprised by the enemy or lose critical combatpower due to an accident. He estimates the risk to his force in continuing a nighttime movement is low. Figure 2-5. Levels of Risk (continued) STEP 3. DEVELOP CONTROLS AND MAKE RISK DECISIONS Risk management is the recognition that decision making occurs under conditions of uncertainty. Decisions must remain consistent with the commander’s stated intent and offer a good e x p e c t a t i o n o f s u c c e s s . T h e r i s k – t a k i n g s k i l l re q u i re s competency as a prerequisite. FM 100-7, Decisive Force: The Army in Theater Operations, May 1995 Step 3 is accomplished in two substeps: develop controls and make risk decisions. This is done during the COA development, COA analysis, COA comparison, and COA approval of the military decision-making process. Substep A – Develop Controls After assessing each hazard, leaders develop one or more controls that either eliminate the hazard or reduce the risk (probability and/or

Risk Management 2-14 severity) of a hazardous incident. When developing controls, they consider the reason for the hazard not just the hazard itself. Types of Controls. Controls can take many forms, but fall into three basic categories—educational controls, physical controls, and avoidance. • Educational controls. These controls are based on the knowledge and skills of the units and individuals. …

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2-0 Chapter 2 Risk Management Process First reckon, then risk Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke This chapter provides the essence of the five-step risk management process. It illustrates the application of each step to military operations through the factors of METT-T. THE FIVE STEPS: AN OVERVIEW Risk management is the process of identifying and controlling hazards to conserve combat power and resources. The five steps of risk management are— • Step 1. Identify hazards. • Step 2. Assess hazards to determine risks. • Step 3. Develop controls and make risk decisions. • Step 4. Implement controls. • Step 5. Supervise and evaluate. This five-step process is integrated into the military decision-making process as shown in Figure 2-1. FM 100-40 provides insight into the context in which the risk management process is applied herein. Areas of particular interest in FM 100-40 include— • Solving tactical problems (Chapter 1). • The science and art of tactics (Chapter 1). • Hasty versus deliberate operations (Chapter 1). • The plan-prepare-execute cycle (Chapter 1). • Basic tactical control measures (Chapter 2). • The factors of METT-T (Chapter 2).

FM 100-14 2-1 Mission Receipt Mission Analysis COA Development COA Analysis COA Comparison COA Approval Orders Production Rehearsal1 Execution and1 Assessment Step 1 IdentifyHazards Step 2 Assess Hazards Step 3 Develop Controls and Make Risk Decision Step 4 Implement Controls Step 5 Supervise and EvaluateMilitary Decision- Making Process X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Risk Management Steps X X X X X X 1All boxes are marked to emphasize the continued use of the risk management process throughout the mission Risk decisions should be based upon awareness rather than mechanical habit. Leaders should act on a keen appreciation for the essential factors that make each situation unique instead of from conditioned response. Throughout the entire operational continuum, the commander must consider US Government civilians and contract support personnel in his risk management process. Hazards can exist, regardless of enemy or adversary actions, in areas with no direct enemy contact and in areas outside the enemy’s or adversary’s Figure 2-1. Risk Management Steps Correlated with Military Decision-Making Tasks

Risk Management 2-2 influence. The two types of risk that exist across the wide

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