Questions (make sure to answer all questions):
1. Compare and contrast policy analysis, program evaluation, and decision analysis in terms of the way in which they might inform decision making by public managers.
2. Regarding housing shortage and homeless in Los Angeles, think about a decision that a policy maker or public administrator might make in relation to it (e.g. whether to implement/expand/cut program or not; whether to hire position to solve organizational problem; whether to focus resources on particular criminal issue). Decompose that problem in terms of the key alternatives and criteria in the decision, the key risks and probabilities/uncertainties/unknowns, the elements within their control/outside of their control.
Reading to help you answer the question:
Decision Analysis
Speaking generally, decision analysis approach to decomposing and analyzing decisions, with the aiming of informing better decision making. This approach is useful for all decision making, from executive level of major public and private organizations down to street-level bureaucrats and even personal decisions. Decomposing decisions refers to breaking down decisions into the key components, especially the alternatives that are available to decision makers, what criteria these alternatives should be assessed by, and, importantly the balance between consequences and probability (which combine for the outcomes). Consequences refers to the potential results of particular alternatives, assuming that the result is fully achieved. The probability refers to the likelihood these consequences will in fact be achieved.
Let me provide an example to clarify these concepts. Lets say were thinking about whether to invest in a counter-terrorism security program at an airport. First, lets think about the potential consequences. If an airport is attacked, alongside the deaths and injuries, there may be costs to repair the airport buildings, and are likely to be economic consequences as people might fly less and spend less on tourism and business trips. While this information is really important (I am biased here, because this is the area I research; note also that we use regression analysis a lot in this field), it only tells us what happens IF a terrorist attack occurs.
Second, airport security decision makers also need to factor in the likelihood of that type of attack occurring. This is a much more challenging number to estimate, but thankfully there are risk analysis experts who work on this. Lets say that the potential consequences are $100 billlion and the likelihood is 0.01% of occurring. The expected value of the outcome (i.e. consequences multiplied by likelihood) would therefore be around $10 million. As such, with this very hypothetical example, if we assume that the airport security program would stop the threat to the airport (i.e. the probability is reduced to zero), and it costs less than $10 million, then it pays off.
Of course, this should not be the be-all and end-all! While this investment might be cost-beneficial, should that be basis on which we make decisions? Should we instead try to avoid the shocking consequences of terror attacks, regardless of cost? Moreover, what are the other potential consequences of the program, for example impacts to civil liberties or the consumer experience (which may be costly in other ways). Decision analysis can be very useful. But it cannot cover all bases and all perspectives. As with policy analysis, decision analysis informs better decision making, and should not be treated as providing the perfect solution to a societal or organizational problem.
Collepals.com Plagiarism Free Papers
Are you looking for custom essay writing service or even dissertation writing services? Just request for our write my paper service, and we'll match you with the best essay writer in your subject! With an exceptional team of professional academic experts in a wide range of subjects, we can guarantee you an unrivaled quality of custom-written papers.
Get ZERO PLAGIARISM, HUMAN WRITTEN ESSAYS
Why Hire Collepals.com writers to do your paper?
Quality- We are experienced and have access to ample research materials.
We write plagiarism Free Content
Confidential- We never share or sell your personal information to third parties.
Support-Chat with us today! We are always waiting to answer all your questions.
