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April 9, 2021

a) Add the necessary nodes

General Questions

a) Add the necessary nodes and edges to your BN, and input the corresponding conditional
probability tables. Justify your expanded network and CPTs. A BN without

b) Use Netica on the expanded BN to answer the following questions:
i. What is the marginal probability that your smoke detector has been tampered with?
ii. What is the marginal probability that there will be a news report tomorrow?
iii. Let’s assume that you have observed that there is smoke in your apartment. What is the posterior probability that there will be a news report tomorrow?t just. Let’s assume that you have observed that there is no smoke in your apartment. What is the posterior probability that your smoke detector has been tampered with? What conditional independence property could help you here?

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