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January 11, 2020

Economic Business Case

Imagine the oil price will keep declining for the next 5 years (until 2023). Lets assume that the average price will be $ 30 with average production of 10 million barrels daily for the next 5 years. Each year starting from the next year will have different government expenditure while the revenue will be the same for the 5 years. As economist you need to think how this shock can affect the whole economic growth for the next 5 years including: 1) the fiscal sector, 2) inflation (domestic prices) and unemployment, 3) monetary and financial sector, 4) external sector (Balance of Payments), 5) the exchange rate, 6) and the social reaction in general after all the negative or positive impacts.

Please write a policy note/analysis discussing the 6 macroeconomic elements. Please include supportive graphs and tables to deliver a clear message. Please cite your work

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