Future of Coal Scenarios for 2050? ? A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose
environmental science writing question
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Week?Four??
Future of Coal Scenarios for 2050?
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A basic tenet of futures studies is that images of the future inform the decisions people make and how they act. The notion that human purpose can affect the course of events to create futures that are significant transformations of the present underlies all of futures research.?
Research and create two images of the future ? called scenarios ? using the 2 of the four archetypes from the Houston Framework
The Archetypes are:
Continuation ? Present trends continue within the system without any major disturbances, what we call the baseline future in the Houston Foresight program. The current system continues to grow because its present trends continue. For this exercise, an example would be that the world continues to build new coal plants and takes the consequences in trade for a temporary economic gain.
Collapse ? The system regresses or dips into a level of dysfunction, e.g., economic stagnation or recession as the norm. For example, coal-fired plants continue but are boycotted to the point that they become unprofitable.
New Equilibrium ?Is the archetype of challenge and response. The system is challenged and responds in a way to save itself. Its based on the notion that systems are stable and will tend to ? and want to ? return to base after being disturbed. They will actively seek this return to stability and be willing to make some compromises to preserve the essence of the system, e.g., converting coal-fired plants to natural gas or adding sophisticated environmental controls systems to keep using coal.
Transformation ? This archetype entails a fundamental change to the system. The system completely changes. An example for our purposes would be coal-fired plants being replaced by renewables or coal being outlawed globally for use.
Pick TWO of the four archetypes, Continuation, Collapse, New Equilibrium, or Transformation, and create a plausible scenario for each. In your own words AND IN 3 PARAGRAPHS, write a scenario for coal-fired power generation in the US for the year 2050.
You might start by saying, For my first scenario, I have chosen the archetype Collapse to inform a scenario where the coal fired power plant industry ?? and then flesh out your scenario for 2050, describing your vision for a collapsed coal-fired power plant industry. Make liberal references to the reading and video materials to show your reasoning and how you logically got to the scenario that you are promoting.
Scenario One (three full paragraphs)
Scenario Two (three full paragraphs)
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