PM – 348 Project Risk Statements and Quantitative Analysis
In earlier PM courses you learned about the importance of good project risk definition and documentation. That is, there is often a variety in the quality and specificity of project risk statements – some are worded well and others poorly. For example, a risk stated as “project might not be successful” is too broad to be useful for analysis or response treatment.
POORLY STATED RISK EXAMPLE 1: “Scope is ill-defined“. This is a statement, in fact a current issue – not a risk.
POORLY STATED RISK EXAMPLE 2: “The project may be late”. This may seem like it’s describing risk but it’s not. It describes a possible outcome of the project, but does not detail a specific risk at all.
For each of the risks listed below, evaluate whether the risk is properly worded or specific enough to take follow-on action such as qualitative or quantitative analysis and determination of a risk response. If not, what additional qualifications or detail is necessary for the risk to be actionable? Reword it to a useful risk statement as necessary.
a. “poor data quality”
b. “the people hired here just won’t cut it“
c. “key system interfaces may not be compatible”
d. “there may not be the physical space for a required equipment”
e. “there are rumors that the project will be cancelled”
f. “data rates for acceptable image quality may exceed capacity”
g. “task estimates are very optimistic”
h. “the regulator may introduce new requirements relating to ___”
i. “the export license may not be granted”
j. “severe weather may impact progress”
k. “missing requirements”
l. “not our sweet spot”
m. “landowners unwilling to sell”
n. “pressure to deliver project on an accelerated schedule”
Subject: Evaluation of Project Risks
In response to the question prompt regarding the evaluation of project risks and the need for proper risk definition and documentation, I will now assess the provided risks and determine whether they are appropriately worded or specific enough for further analysis and the identification of risk responses.
PART 2
Perform a quantitative risk analysis showing consequences in terms of schedule and cost impact, and list any other resulting factors, for the following personal or non-project oriented risk scenarios:
a. Risk of a snake bite while hiking in the woods.
b. Risk of forgetting to file income taxes until after due date.
c. Risk to the San Francisco Giants MLB team if opening day of the season is delayed.
d. Risk if you lose your driver’s license due to DUI.
e. Risk of forgetting your anniversary with your spouse or significant other.
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