In what ways might Texas’ politics change in the future based on its racial and ethnic makeup? Based on the population growth, urbanization, and economic transformation of the last tw

Demographic Trends and Population Projections for Texas and the North Texas Region

Presented to 

January 15, 2021

Texas is experiencing significant and substantial growth.

3

U.S. Estimated Population 2020:   329,484,123

Texas Estimated Population 2020: 29,360,759

Texas makes up 8.9% of the total U.S. population but 32.4% of the total growth between 2019 and 2020.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Vintage population estimates Note: These data are not from the 2020 Census, rather estimates based on the 2010 Census

4

Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019

2000 Population

2010 Population

2019  Population

Numeric Change

2010‐2019

Percent Change

2010‐2019

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 32,823,9523 19,481,418 6.3%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,995,881 3,849,790 15.3%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,512,223 2,257,704 6.1%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,477,737 2,673,173 14.2%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,617,423 928,694 9.6%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%

Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%

Texas adds more population than any other state and at a fast rate.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates

Top 15 Metros in Numeric Growth, 2010‐2019

Rank Name April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Numeric Change

Percent  Change

1 Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX 6,366,537 7,455,756 7,573,136 1,206,599 19.0 2 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 4,849,209 7,066,141 1,145,654 19.4 3 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Chandler, AZ 4,193,129 4,849,209 4,948,203 755,074 18.0 4 Atlanta‐Sandy Springs‐Alpharetta, GA  5,286,718 6,976,147 6,020,364 733,646 13.9 5 Washington‐Arlington‐Alexandria, DC‐VA‐MD‐WV  5,649,688 5,945,303 6,280,487 630,799 11.2 6 Miami‐Fort Lauderdale‐Pompano Beach, FL  5,566,274 6,143,837 6,166,488 600,214 10.8 7 Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA  3,439,808 3,935,179 3,979,845 540,037 15.7 8 Austin‐Round Rock‐Georgetown, TX  1,716,323 2,165,497 2,227,083 510,760 29.8 9 Orlando‐Kissimmee‐Sanford, FL  2,134,399 2,574,838 2,608,147 473,748 22.2 10 Riverside‐San Bernardino‐Ontario, CA  4,224,948 4,612,542 4,650,631 425,683 10.1 11 Denver‐Aurora‐Lakewood, CO  2,543,608 2,931,665 2,967,239 423,631 16.7 12 Tampa‐St. Petersburg‐Clearwater, FL 2,783,485 3,154,649 3,194,831 411,346 14.8 13 San Antonio‐New Braunfels, TX  2,142,520 2,512,379 2,550,960 408,440 19.1 14 San Francisco‐Oakland‐Berkeley, CA  4,335,593 4,726,314 4,731,803 396,210 9.1 15 Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia, NC‐SC  2,243,963 2,592,950 2,636,883 392,920 17.5

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates

DFW leads nation in metro growth for the 4th year in a row.

Five of the 15 largest U.S. cities are in Texas. Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 New York, NY 8,175,133 8,272,948 8,346,693 8,396,091 8,433,806 8,463,049 8,469,153 8,437,478 8,390,081 8,336,817

2 Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,820,876 3,851,202 3,881,622 3,909,901 3,938,568 3,963,226 3,975,788 3,977,596 3,979,576

3 Chicago, IL 2,695,598 2,708,114 2,719,141 2,725,731 2,727,066 2,724,344 2,716,723 2,711,069 2,701,423 2,693,976

4 Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,126,032 2,161,593 2,199,391 2,241,826 2,286,908 2,309,544 2,316,750 2,318,573 2,320,268

5 Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,469,796 1,499,274 1,526,491 1,555,445 1,583,690 1,612,199 1,633,560 1,654,675 1,680,992

6 Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 1,540,466 1,551,824 1,558,313 1,565,460 1,571,065 1,576,051 1,580,601 1,583,592 1,584,064

7 San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,357,120 1,383,075 1,408,339 1,435,456 1,464,043 1,487,843 1,511,154 1,530,016 1,547,253

8 San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,319,592 1,336,776 1,355,320 1,375,831 1,387,323 1,402,089 1,412,621 1,421,917 1,423,851

9 Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,218,282 1,242,115 1,258,835 1,279,098 1,301,329 1,323,916 1,342,479 1,341,802 1,343,573

10 San Jose, CA 945,942 970,369 983,530 1,001,279 1,014,273 1,025,980 1,030,242 1,032,335 1,028,020 1,021,795

11 Austin, TX 790,390 828,459 854,482 875,003 901,170 921,114 939,447 951,553 962,469 978,908

12 Jacksonville, FL 821,784 829,609 837,013 842,735 852,494 865,836 880,520 892,025 902,437 911,507

13 Fort Worth, TX 741,206 764,142 781,046 796,073 815,057 835,356 856,177 874,809 893,216 909,585

14 Columbus, OH 787,033 800,607 812,740 827,797 841,673 854,950 866,894 881,694 890,869 898,553

15 Charlotte, NC 731,424 754,829 773,264 792,047 807,400 825,668 843,117 860,002 872,514 885,708 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates

6

Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019

July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent

1 Phoenix, AZ 1,654,675 1,680,992 26,317 1.6

2 San Antonio, TX 1,530,016 1,547,253 17,237 1.1

3 Austin, TX 962,469 978,908 16,439 1.7

4 Fort Worth, TX 893,216 909,585 16,369 1.8

5 Charlotte, NC 872,514 885,708 13,194 1.5

6 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4

7 Seattle, WA 742,235 753,675 11,440 1.5

8 Denver, CO 716,265 727,211 10,946 1.5

9 Henderson, NV 309,518 320,189 10,671 3.4

10 Mesa, AZ 507,945 518,012 10,067 2.0

11 Jacksonville, FL 902,437 911,507 9,070 1.0

12 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5

13 Atlanta, GA 498,183 506,811 8,628 1.7

14 Las Vegas, NV 643,228 651,319 8,091 1.3

15 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018 

Texas cities among top 15 US cities with largest numeric increase between 2018 and 2019.

Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019

July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent 1 Leander, TX 55,924 62,608 6,684 12.0 2 Apex, NC 53,859 59,300 5,441 10.1 3 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5 4 Doral, FL 60,762 65,741 4,979 8.2 5 Bentonville, AR 51,103 54,909 3,806 7.4 6 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7 Georgetown, TX 74,275 79,604 5,329 7.2 8 Buckeye, AZ 74,339 79,620 5,281 7.1 9 New Braunfels, TX 84,495 90,209 5,714 6.8 10 Redmond, WA 67,436 71,929 4,493 6.7 11 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4 12 Fort Myers, FL 82,229 87,103 4,874 5.9 13 Lehi, UT 65,958 69,724 3,766 5.7 14 Castle Rock, CO 65,000 68,484 3,484 5.4 15 Milpitas, CA 80,208 84,196 3,988 5.0

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018 

Nearly a third of the 15 fastest-growing large cities and towns in the country are in Texas.

Population and population growth in Texas are not evenly geographically distributed.

10,000 or less 10,001 – 50,000 50,001 – 100,000 100,001 – 500,000 500,001 – 1,000,000 1,000,001 – 6,000,000 plus

Cartogram of Texas County Populations in 2010

10

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

Gray

Cass

Kimble

Lynn Wise

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Knox

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Ward

Bowie

Kleberg

Foard

Culberson

Edwards

La Salle

Tyler

Medina

Hunt

Rusk

Liberty

Smith

Mills

Lee

Matagorda

Jones

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Zapata

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell Reagan Houston

Motley

Brown

Young

Maverick

Lamar

Real

Martin

Coleman

Garza

Dallas

Jasper

Fisher

Tom Green

Moore

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Brooks

Atascosa

Hardin

DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Donley

Bosque El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Wharton

Fannin

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Schleicher

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Gillespie

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Shelby

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

Menard

San Saba

Howard

Wood

Panola

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Harrison

Colorado

Red River

Eastland

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Bandera

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

San Augustine

Morris

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

169 – 10,000

10,001 – 100,000

100,001 – 500,000

5000,001 – 2,000,000

2,000,001 – 4,713,325

Approximately 86% of the total Texas population is located in counties along and to the east of I-35.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Total Estimated Population by  County, 2019

11

Of Texas’ 254 counties, 104 lost population between 2010 and 2019.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates 

-3,663 – 0

1 – 5,000

5,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 100,000

100,001 – 620,149

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

Gray

Cass

Kimble

Lynn Wise

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Knox

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Ward

Bowie

Kleberg

Foard

Culberson

Edwards

La Salle

Tyler

Medina

Hunt

Rusk

Liberty

Smith

Mills

Lee

Matagorda

Jones

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Zapata

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell Reagan Houston

Motley

Brown

Young

Maverick

Lamar

Real

Martin

Coleman

Garza

Dallas

Jasper

Fisher

Tom Green

Moore

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Brooks

Atascosa

Hardin

DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Donley

Bosque El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Wharton

Fannin

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Schleicher

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Gillespie

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Shelby

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

Menard

San Saba

Howard

Wood

Panola

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Harrison

Colorado

Red River

Eastland

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Bandera

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

San Augustine

Morris

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Estimated Numeric Change by County,  2010‐2019

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio

Culberson

Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr Edwards

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

La Salle

Tyler

Gray

Cass

Medina

Kimble

Lynn Wise Hunt

Rusk

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Liberty

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Smith

Knox

Mills

Lee

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Jones

Ward

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell

Bowie

Motley

Young

Lamar

Real

Martin

Garza

Dallas Fisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Hardin

Donley

El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Fannin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Shelby

Menard

Foard

Wood

Panola

Harrison

Eastland

Bandera

Matagorda

Zapata

Reagan Houston

Brown

Maverick

Coleman

Jasper

Tom Green

Brooks

Atascosa DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Bosque

Wharton

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

San Saba

Howard

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Colorado

Red River

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan

Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson

Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Washington

Delta

Orange

Rains

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