The use of energy models for decarbonization analysis
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topic: The use of energy models for decarbonization analysis
Many countries across the world have recently been engaged in strengthening their NDCs and developing mid-century strategies. In the run-up to COP27, it is hoped that the process of increasing climate ambition will continue. One country that has invested considerable effort in developing modeling capacity to support its decarbonization strategy is Costa Rica. In the paper ‘Decarbonising the transport and energy sectors: Technical feasibility and socioeconomic impacts in Costa Rica’ the OSeMOSYS model is applied. This is a well-known optimization modeling platform, similar to TIMES;
This essay is about reflecting on the approach that was taken in the Costa Rica analysis and considering the aspects that were done well, and other aspects that might be more limited. This should include both the scenario co-creation process and the quantitative modeling. Your essay should include the following aspects:
1. Provide a description of the broader international and national policy context for why this analysis was undertaken •
2. Provide a brief summary of the objectives of the paper, and the key findings •
3. Highlight two key strengths of the scenario process and two key strengths of the modeling approach (using OSeMOSYS) used for developing the decarbonization strategy. •
4. Based on your understanding of optimization modeling, please provide two key limitations of the OSeMOSYS modeling approach for this Costa Rica analysis •
5. Suggest how both of these limitations could be overcome. For each, please refer to one or more of the following – i) how the modeling approach could be extended; ii) how a complementary modeling approach could be used, and iii) how the process of using the model could be adapted. •
6. Finally, reflect on whether you feel that there is sufficient information provided in the paper to fully understand the modeling approach and assumptions. If not, how could this be improved? Some useful references that should help you think through issues relevant to decarbonization analyses include – Waisman et al. 2019, Pye et al. 2020, and Pye and Bataille 2016. Please feel free to draw on other references to help support your points.
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